Bridrun in the Brooklyn

[covelj70]

I like Birdrun in the Brooklyn to beat the favorite Drosselmeyer and maybe key a decent Brooklyn/Belmont double if we can get one of the longballs home that we like in the Belmont.

Birdrun ran considerably faster than Dross last time, is now equal weighted against that one, has a great looking pattern as he looks to be cyclicaling back to a big number and seems to love Belmont (although so does Dross)

1x4 Brooklyn/Belmont doubles

Birdrun over Nehro, Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Monzon.

This triple crown has been particularly frustrating for me as I have been live to some really big double payouts after hitting the first legs of the doubles in the previous 2 classics but then crapping out in a grand way in the colt races.  Here\'s to changing that around this weekend!

Incidentally, I don\'t want to give away JB\'s data or analysis on the board but let\'s just say that I can\'t believe all of the crap he gave me over the way I was approaching the Belmont last week and earlier this week after reading the analysis last night.

[miff]

Cov,

Do you interpret that Birdruns -3 at a one turn mile, albeit at Belmont, is relevant, pattern wise or otherwise, to a race at 1 and 1/2 miles at two turns.His last race was run over a dirt surface which mostly played kind to horses close up at the pace call.

Have long thought that 5 sheet readers in a room could come up with 5 different interpretations.

Good Luck and GREAT score on the sale of L&L.


Mike

[covelj70]

Thanks Mike, really appreciate that about L&L, the reporter really did a nice job with that article.  

I don\'t think Birdrun will run a 3 neg tomorrow but hopefully, we won\'t have to.

I think a \"0\" with the right trip can win this and I think he has a good chance to do that based on the pattern and race shapes, etc.....at least I hope

[TGJB]

Whoa there. My \"crap\" was only about your comment that our data doesn\'t apply to the Belmont. As I said earlier, a lot of your analysis (and certainly mine) is straight up sheet (pattern) analysis.

I found it a lot easier to handicap this race when a) I blocked out the extraneous static and just handicapped, and b) put aside that it was a Triple Crown race. A lot of us-- especially those with our backsides exposed for kicking in public-- are too conscious of wanting to be right on big races, instead of looking for value, being willing to lose to possibly more likely but underlaid horses, and moving on to the next race if we do lose.

Re the other string, I\'ve fallen in love with several horses. Like many who got involved in the game in the 70\'s the first was Ruffian, especially since I bet her first time out (because she was a half to Icecapade, another horse I was a fan of). She\'s partly responsible for me stopping smoking pot, but that\'s a story for another day.

I will hold against Lauffer for the rest of my life that I was not able to feel that way about Rachel, or enjoy that spectacular campaign. The court\'s decision is due to come down tomorrow or a Friday soon thereafter. Whatever it is, it won\'t make up for that. That\'s what I\'m in this game for, and that campaign was a once-in-a-lifetime thing.

[covelj70]

cool post, alot of interesting stuff in there, thank you.

[Silver Charm]

Pleeeease you said once to me that you \"WILL NEVER FORGET\" that image of Victory Gallop splitting horses in the Belmont at the top of the stretch and then what transpired from there.

I\'m sure winning the Derby would have been financially better but the idea of Aqueduct Grandstand Brooklyn boy winning a Belmont has got to please you.

Just downloaded the numbers for Saturday. Gonna be a tough Card for singles.

Good Luck in the Case.

[TGJB]

BROOKLYN?!?!?! Greenwich Village born and raised.

VG was great. But he wasn\'t the greatest 3yo filly of all time.

Yeah on tough for singles. Lots of boxes will be in the analysis. Rain could change things.

[covelj70]

JB, in terms of the singles, Turbulent Descent looks really solid to me

I am definitely pulling for you with Her Smile as I think you made a great recommendation to buy that one for a client and Her Smile will make Flay alot of money over her career but I think Turbulent Descent lays over this field.

She\'s faster than everyone by several points, doesn\'t project to lose that much ground, has run her figures on the dirt and there\'s no reason to question if this distance is within her scope.  Finally, in terms of trainer intent, he has said for 3 months this was their target.

Looks like about as good of a single as one can get on a day like this.

[TGJB]

First of all, I would never single a 1/2 shot. They are even shorter than that in multiple race bets because people have to focus somewhere. (Particularly true if they are in the first leg).

Secondly, I have no idea what HS will do. But she is effectively first time Pletcher, and at some point will break through from a # she has now run several times. Including as a 2yo.

Having said that, I would like it much better if the race was under allowance conditions...

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I can almost never consider a horse that will 2-5 a great single.  When the whole world sees it, by logic, there is no value.

Turbulent Descent will be tough to beat....

[Silver Charm]

First time Mike Pype has run a horse at Belmont Park. Just a thought!

[covelj70]

Jimbo and JB,

I hear you guys on the value of a short priced single but on a day like Sat with pools like the one we are likely to see, any single is a good single.  

As you both know, I look for value at all costs in any given race but the in pick 6, I have had plenty of succes over the years singling short priced favs.  I once spilt a nice sized belmont pick 6 carryover with one other player by singling a 1/2 shot.

for me on a day like Sat, it\'s just about surviving and getting through each sequence.

Especially if we are right that the Belmont itself is ripe for choas, then all I want to do is be alive to the last leg.

[TGJB]

Also not so hot on off tracks, if it rains...

[jimbo66]

Jim,

Pick-6 is different than any other bet.  i agree that for a pick-6, what is a \"good single\" is different than a good single in a double or pick-3.

If I play the pick-6 on Saturday, I plan to start \"single/single\" with Turbulent Descent and Trappe Shot.  Since the horses I/we like in the Belmont are pretty long, I am OK with a short priced start to the sequence.  

What to do about Gio Ponti is a tough call for me.  Certainly can\'t single, but not sure I can find too many to use in the race either.  

The filly/mare turf race is wide open and I want most of them on my ticket.

[covelj70]

couldn\'t agree more about the Gio Ponti race.  If he doesn\'t win, it\'s a total crapshoot.

I will use Leparoux and Castellano in addition to Gio Ponti and hope the cripple that Julien is riding has one more sound race in him or that Javier can nurse that speed from the outside on the 12-1 shot like he can so often do.

I won\'t feel good about it though, I can tell you that.