Not sure if these picks qualify as "sheet theory" or not but...

covelj70 · June 08, 2011, 08:35:58 AM

I will use a 4 horse box for e\'s, tri\'s and the super with:

Nehro
Stay Thirsty
Santiva
Monzon

I don\'t know if my parameters qualify as \"sheet theory\" or not as per JB\'s message yesterday but I simply took the horses that had the proper spacing between the races (which I am pretty sure is sheet theory) and bred to run this distance on the dirt (which I think may be sheet theory as well). This \"sheet theory\" stuff is a slippery slope but I am pretty sure fresh and bred to get the distance on this surface qualifies given all of the good info available on the sheet itself

good luck to everyone. I know this ticket is unlikely to cash but if it cashes, drinks are on me for the whole month of August at Siro\'s for anyone who doesn\'t take a needless potshot at said picks on this board before Saturday!

TGJB · June 08, 2011, 09:38:22 AM

Pretty funny. Spacing is sheet theory, rest not so much.

covelj70 · June 08, 2011, 09:41:35 AM

alrightly then JB, you qualify for the drink specials at Saratoga should I get lucky!

Ill-bred · June 08, 2011, 12:28:59 PM

I thought Santiva ran a credible race in the Derby. I like him at a price, keyed underneath AK.

MonmouthGuy · June 08, 2011, 12:30:32 PM

Good luck Jim, although our top 4s don\'t overlap at all.

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Brilliant Speed
3. Master of Hounds
4. Animal Kingdom

Those are the four that are fast enough and I see staying on for 12F.

Mucho Macho Man. I am buying his excuse and am drawing a line through the Preakness. Using that creative license and eliminating his Preakness, he looks like a candidate to run a top or pair which will win this. He worked well last Sunday, positive jockey change, late foal. I am buying everything that he his selling. I was at the funeral, so I will stick around for the resurrection.

Brilliant Speed. I am going to treat his KD as a natural move forward as opposed to a dirt jump up. His 5 in the Blue Grass was better than it looked because of how he closed into a snail pace, and his KD # is buried. Could run them all down a la Summer Bird.

Master of Hounds looks set for another forward move. He finished well on the dead rail at CD and he drew well, will save all the ground and will last the distance, Hoping the spacing helps him avoid the second Euro bounce.

Animal Kingdom. The most consistent of all of the 3YOs and can\'t imagine him not figuring in the Super with his consistency but don\'t see him winning.

Omissions.

Shak- can not see it at 12F. Will be sent from the outside. Will let him beat me.

Nehro. In retrospect, probably does not get by Shak if not for the dead rail at Churchill, was passed by AK like he was standing still and was two jumps away from finishing behind MMM. I am going to guess his best is at 9F and that he will be an underlay.

Santiva. Can understand why some like him bc of the 1 big number, but was outrun by all of the above in the KD and don\'t see any reason that will change here.

Stay Thirsty, If it wasn\'t for the breeding and connections, we wouldn\'t even be discussing him.

All others can beat me and 1 or 2 probably will seeing that it is the Belmont.

alm · June 08, 2011, 01:12:14 PM

Hey, best post I\'ve read yet. Thank you...will follow you into the fire.

jbelfior · June 08, 2011, 02:03:17 PM

MG:

I finally found someone who agrees with my Nehro assessment.

MMM would have to be over 10-1 for me to take a chance on him pairing his top or running a new one and I doubt he goes off at double digits. Colt has too many casual fans.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

sekrah · June 08, 2011, 02:03:53 PM

> Santiva. Can understand why some like him bc of
> the 1 big number, but was outrun by all of the
> above in the KD and don\'t see any reason that will
> change here.

Reasons that will change here:

- Was still recovering from that big figure on Derby Day.
- Didn\'t exactly get the perfect prep race.
- Won\'t be affected by a horrid rail.

I honestly don\'t see how anyone could like Mucho Macho Man for as ghastly as he has looked the past couple weeks. Santiva spotted him 6 pounds and a couple paths in the Risen Star.

MonmouthGuy · June 08, 2011, 02:37:09 PM

sekrah Wrote:>
> I honestly don\'t see how anyone could like Mucho
> Macho Man for as ghastly as he has looked the past
> couple weeks. Santiva spotted him 6 pounds and a
> couple paths in the Risen Star.

He didn\'t look \"ghastly\" on Sunday when he had the best work of any of the above leading into the Belmont.

Hope you improve on your Derby and Preakness picks.

Good luck,

MonmouthGuy · June 08, 2011, 02:39:09 PM

Thanks. I was thinking that I may get 10/12-1 on MMM. Perhaps I am dreaming.

bstaubs22 · June 08, 2011, 02:40:37 PM

Agree with the posts about Santiva. Got absolutely nothing out of his start in the Bluegrass, being caught on the rail with no way out also being his first start in seven weeks. Went into the Derby and if you watch the aerial view was finishing on the same terms at the end with MOH and BS. Santiva has better tactical speed than those two IMO and no reason not to think that the Derby sets him up well for this. Definite threat to hit the board or even key at what could be a big price.

TGJB · June 08, 2011, 02:54:31 PM

First of all, the guy has made some very succesful pre-race picks here, secondly even if he hadn\'t not hitting two (2) races (especially with huge fields) doesn\'t exactly qualify as a large sampling of bad picks, third we don\'t need that sniping here anyway. Go after the position on the merits, not the guy.

jimbo66 · June 08, 2011, 03:13:57 PM

You are in trouble Jim, almost no shot to cash, we are on the same horses.

I am going one deeper and adding Mucho Macho Man into my vertical boxes. With the prices I expect on Santiva, Stay Thirsty and Monzon, I can add a fifth. I am going to give Mucho one more chance. Ramon signing up for the mount, along with the 10-1 I expect him to be, cinched it that I need to use him.

covelj70 · June 08, 2011, 03:59:35 PM

Jimbo, does that mean you are a co-sponsor of the free drinks at Siro\'s offer if we get lucky?

good luck to us!

MonmouthGuy · June 08, 2011, 07:14:43 PM

Sorry about that, but this guy makes more condescending posts at fellow posters than anyone on the board. Victory laps after every bet he hits, and a disappearing act when he is wrong. Not my style.

His comment that no one should give MMM a shot because he \"looks ghastly\" the last two weeks needed to be corrected, especially when his work last sunday was the buzz around the backside at Belmont (even Miff commented on it) and late this afternoon Barry Irwin called MMM the horse to beat. Looks ghastly according to who? Sekrah?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/derby-winner-animal-kingdoms-owner-says-he-fears-mucho-macho-man-not-shackleford-in-belmont/2011/06/07/AGr7USLH_story.html