The Belmont by the sheets

[albany]

Jimbo:

In general, I agree with your unwillingness to wager on turf/poly horses on dry dirt tracks. The Belmont may, however, be an exception given the quality and potential distance limitations of the so-called dirt horses. Additionally, although there are clear differences between tracks, I think there is a danger of putting too fine a point on the analysis when we try to distinguish between dirt tracks with unquantifiable differences in moisture content.



Albany

[JR]

I might be way off on this, but doesn\'t Rasmussen change his Chef de Race classifications with some regularity thus changing horses\' DIs?

[miff]

JR,

The Dosage is now \"backed into\" with changes after the fact.


Mike

[Topcat]

Rasmussen, alas, is long gone.  The chef-de-race listings remains Dr. Steve Roman\'s baby -- and a work in progress.  Results dictate changes.   Alydar was an obvious chef-de-race, but Strike The Gold was a dosage-ineligible Derby winner until the addition was made.

[alm]

Good Lord...some of the people on this string are actually ignoring the sheets to find a Belmont winner...from Stay Thirsty to Monzon...excuse me?  What\'s happened?  

As I said before, if Irwin and Motion think their horse is ready, just settle back and enjoy the win.  His workout was a tremendous move...for comparison think about Van Berg\'s training Alysheba up to the Belmont...the old \'long slow gallop\' approach.  It has produced more losers than winners of this race.  That\'s why Woody Stephens dominated it with speedy horses.  He was a pain in the ass, but no fool.

[richiebee]

Alm:

Do you read other people\'s posts or just skim them?

A lot of the posts I read had Stay Thirsty and especially Monzon filling out the
tris and supers.

[miff]

Interesting chart from Steve Crist.Very few Belmont winners run the second half of the race(last 6f)faster than the first half.Guess if one of these slugs on Sat get home in 1.14 and change, they\'ll be tough assuming normal track speed.


 First 6f Second 6f Final 2nd 6f vs. 1st 6f  
         
         
.
  2010 Drosselmeyer 1:15.45 1:16.12 2:31.57 0.67 slower  
.
  2009 Summer Bird 1:13.43 1:14.11 2:27.54 1.68 slower  
.
  2008 D\'Tara 1:12.90 1:16.75 2:29.65 3.85 slower  
.
  2007 Rags to Riches 1:15.68 1:13.06 2:28.74 2.62 FASTER  
.
  2006 Jazil 1:13.14 1:14.72 2:27.86 1.58 slower  
.
  2005 Afleet Alex 1:13.43 1:15.32 2:28.75 1.89 slower  
.
  2004 Birdstone 1:12.44 1:15.06 2:27.50 2.62 slower  
.
  2003 Empire Maker 1:13.68 1:14.58 2:28.26 0.90 slower  
.
  2002 Sarava 1:12.72 1:16.99 2;29.71 4.27 slower  
.
  2001 Point Given 1:11.95 1:14.61 2:26.56 2.66 slower  
.
  2000 Commendable 1:14.48 1:16.71 2:31.19 2.23 slower  
.
  1999 Lemon Drop Kid 1:12.68 1:15.20 2:27.88 2.52 slower  
.
  1998 Victory Gallop 1:14.80 1:14.20 2:29.00 0.60 FASTER  
.
  1997 Touch Gold 1:13.80 1:15.00 2:28.80 1.20 slower  
.
  1996 Editor\'s Note 1:12.60 1:16.20 2:28.80 3.60 slower  
.
  1995 Thunder Gulch 1:15.40 1:16.60 2:32.00 1.20 slower  
.
  1994 Tabasco Cat 1:11.40 1:15.40 2:26.80 4.00 slower  
.
  1993 Colonial Affair 1:14.40 1:15.40 2:29.80 1.00 slower  
.
  1992 A.P. Indy 1:12.20 1:13.80 2:26.00 1.60 slower  
.
  1991 Hansel 1:11.80 1:16.20 2:28.00 4.40 slower  
 
         
.
  1990 Go and Go 1:12.60 1:14.60 2:27.20 2.00 slower  
.
  1989 Easy Goer 1:11.80 1:14.20 2:26.00 2.40 slower  
.
  1988 Risen Star 1:12.00 1:14.40 2:26.40 2.40 slower  
.
  1987 Bet Twice 1:13.80 1:14.40 2:28.20 0.60 slower  
.
  1986 Danzig Connection 1:12.80 1:17.00 2:29.80 4.20 slower  
.
  1985 Creme Fraiche 1:12.20 1:14.80 2:27.00 2.60 slower  
.
  1984 Swale 1:13.60 1:13.60 2:27.20 SAME  
.
  1983 Caveat 1:13.80 1:14.00 2:27.80 0.20 slower  
.
  1982 Conquistador Cielo 1:12.00 1:16.20 2:28.20 4.20 slower  
.
  1981 Summing 1:14.20 1:14.80 2:29.00 0.60 slower  
.
  1980 Temperence Hill 1:15.80 1:14.00 2:29.80 1.80 FASTER  
.
  1979 Coastal 1:11.80 1:16.80 2:28.60 5.00 slower  
.
  1978 Affirmed 1:14.00 1:12.80 2:26.80 1.20 FASTER  
.
  1977 Seattle Slew 1:14.00 1:15.60 2:29.60 1.60 slower  
.
  1976 Bold Forbes 1:11.20 1:17.80 2:29.00 6.60 slower  
.
  1975 Avatar 1:13.20 1:15.00 2;28.20 1.80 slower  
.
  1974 Little Current 1;16.00 1:13.20 2:29.20 2.80 FASTER  
.
  1973 Secretariat 1:09.80 1:14.20 2:24.00 4.40 slower  
.
  1972 Riva Ridge 1:12.00 1:16.00 2:28.00 4.00 slower  
.
  1971 Pass Catcher 1:13.00 1:17.40 2:30.40 4.40 slower  
 
         
.

[HP]

Interesting that quite a few posters here like Animal Kingdom.  There are not too many Derby winners on this list!  HP

[big18741]

Alysheba ran without lasix.Pretty sure that had more to do with his flat race than how he was trained.

We know where Shack will be regardless of pace.Nehro has positional speed he won\'t be far back.Ditto for MMM given the 59 work.I\'d expect AK to be laying closer to the pace as well.This is gonna be a riders race-who moves when and how far Shack can take them the key.

Brilliant Speed can sit behind all that jockeying and punch in last similar to Summer Birds run in 2009.Got his speed work on May 23rd over the surface.The last two were for exercise.Or maybe he\'s another poly/turf horse that doesn\'t pick up his feet here.Paying to find out.

[MonmouthGuy]

Tweet from DRF: \"Fun Formulator stat, unless you\'re Graham Motion. Last 5 yrs, he\'s had 28 starts in graded stakes w/ spacing of 21 days or less. He\'s 0-28.\"

[Topcat]

Graham do like his spacing the way he likes it.

Any indication as to how many 2nds?

[Niall]

Finally a statistic that falls right into my lap and wallet ... He\'s due !!! Yikes!

[Beginner]

I\'m confused. Every year there\'s a discussion on the Board about the tremendous toll that 3 grueling races in 5 weeks takes out of a 3 year old - the Belmont being the toughest.  Can anyone who thinks AK is the most likely winner explain why they don\'t think he will bounce? (maybe the theory is he bounces, but still wins?) Here\'s a list of recent horses who had a shot at the TC and lost. I fully recognize that AK came 2nd in the Preakness, but at 30,000 feet, does that matter in determining whether to expect a bounce in the TC series? (I\'m asking). If AK\'s sheet looks like MTB - both won the KD, both came second in the Preakness, and MTB finished 3rd in the Belmont then...
Why is AK different?

I know JB has already posted about Borel\'s ride in the Belmont, but isn\'t that the same as \"stepping on a pin\"? I can\'t see playing AK to win. If he beats me than he beats me and maybe racing has it\'s next superstar, but I won\'t be playing it that way.  


1997   Silver Charm       2nd (Touch Gold)
1998   Real Quiet       2nd (Victory Gallop)
1999   Charismatic       3rd (Lemon Drop Kid)
2002   War Emblem       8th (Sarava)
2003   Funny Cide       3rd (Empire Maker)
2004   Smarty Jones       2nd (Birdstone)
2008   Big Brown       DNF (Da\'Tara)

[alm]

I read the posts all right...for my part and I could be dead wrong, these 2 are not horses I would use in any way.  They are problemmatic horses and I think it is a reach to expect them to do much.  Stay Thirsty is a rooting interest for his owner...Monzon ran so badly, from my point of view, in his prep...against a group that was not particulary strong (OK, but not strong) that I place him in my Sway Away POS Award Winning category.  If you think he can bump up fourth go for it.  I think his entry is based on getting a program souvenier for his connections, which may not even have another one this good for the next 10 years.

[jbelfior]

Beginner:

Good question which leads to another question.

Are speed types more likely to bounce than those with an AK style of running? IMO, Shak is more likely to bounce than AK all other elements (# of races this year, spacing, 2yo campaign, top #, trainer) aside.



Good Luck,
Joe B.