The Belmont by the sheets

[TGJB]

BB had already run a huge # in Fla, ran a 1 point top in Ky. Super Saver also ran only a 1 point top. Street Sense paired his # at Pimlico. Hard Spun paired that number something like 5 more times on all surfaces.

[jbelfior]

Hi Jim:

Me thinks that the DI takes all of what you\'re saying and quantifies it.

I would agree, not an exact science. However, what cannot be ignored as far as dosage is concerned is that 20 of the last 25 Belmont winners not only were under the 4.0 Derby guideline, they were under 3.00.

 You\'re a percentage guy from what I can tell and I\'m sure you would agree that  80 percent is an impressive number.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

You are getting lots of feedback and a few \"shots\" from TGJB and Miff (board veterans - aka \"old guys\")  

I will join you in the firing line.  I agree with almost everything you wrote, which means you are likely not going to cash in the Belmont!

I won\'t go so far as to make the correlation between running well at Churchill in general and being \"turf bred\", but I will say that it seems to me that when the track at Churchill is cuppy or wet, like it was on Derby day, those type of horses run well.  (Pioneer of the Nile, Brilliant Speed, Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds come to mind).  I will admit that I may be under-estimating Animal Kingdom based on his solid run in the Preakness, but I will be against him again on Saturday.

I am against Shackleford and Animal Kingdom for some of the same reasons you are.  My \"short list\" is a bit deeper than yours though.  I am looking for a dirt bred horse, relatively well rested, with a distance pedigree,  with a \"puncher\'s chance\" (means he had to have at least one figure that would win)  I do agree that Nehro is the horse to beat and I will be using Santiva and Stay Thirsty as you are.  I am also going to throw in Monzon though.  By Thunder Gulch, with a disappointing run in the Peter Pan, but he got a trip over the track and he has that \"one figure\" that fits.

As for Santiva, who will likely be my top key, I couldn\'t disagree more than calling his race in Louisiana \"phony wide\".  He pressed the pace all the way around the track, one path wider than Mucho Macho Man, while spotting that one 6 pounds. If Mucho is/was a Triple Crown contender, Santiva is as well.  I respect Kenneally, but really have to question the strategy of taking 6 weeks off after that race, then running polytrack 3 weeks before the Derby.  

I think you could make a bit of an analogy with Santiva to Birdstone and Monzon to Drosselmeyer.  Birdstone had a disappointing Bluegrass, with an excuse, then a mediocre but not awful Derby, followed by 5 weeks off, then a big Belmont.  Birdstone\'s Bluegrass was that he was trapped down inside, while Santiva\'s excuse is the poly.  Birdstone ran mid-pack in the Derby, with Santiva 6th.  As for Monzon and Drosselmeyer, both had disappointing Peter Pan runs, but got a race over the track and are marginally competitive in the Belmont, on their best number.  

I will also use Mucho Macho Man, if he continues to look good at Belmont over the next few days.

Just wondering, will the Super pay enough such that I need a Social Security card, when it comes in:

Santiva winning at 26-1
Stay Thirsty 2nd at 22-1
Monzon 3rd at 35-1
Mucho Macho Man 4th at 10-1

Jim

[Rich Curtis]

\"what cannot be ignored as far as dosage is concerned is that 20 of the last 25 Belmont winners not only were under the 4.0 Derby guideline, they were under 3.00.\"

 What percentage of the starters were under 4.0?

[covelj70]

Jimbo, this is both hysterical and insightful at the same time.

Monzon is an interesting one, glad you pointed him out.

I actually put in a Derby future bet on this guy after that one big figure earlier this year and he is bred for the dirt and distance so I think he is very usable at the kind of price we are looking at.

The undercard doesn\'t look bad at all with the True North coming up quite deep so there might be some money to be made in the verticals as well if we are right about any of these guys.

[miff]

Jim,

Pressed? He went app 25 in that first quarter when he was \"losing ground\" too slow to be that relevant,imo. Check him hanging like a chanderlier last 5-6 jumps in that race at 1 1/16th mile.Phony wide, one fig wonder,might not like him in a NW 1x much less here.

Bring a wheelbarrel,in case your exotic hits, I\'ll help fill it up for a small fee. Good Luck!


Mike

[miff]

One note on the Belmont. Slow slugs have won it in the past simply because they were able to make the trip, where faster ones could not.Last year Drosselmeyer, a slow slug supreme, won the Belmont by attrition getting the last quarter in like 26 secs.


Mike

[Einstein66]

Wrongly, you are right, but lately, it\'s the other way around.

Only one of the past nine Belmont winners ran in the Preakness (Afleet Alex).

Since 2002,

Preakness runners account for 11% of the Belmont winners (one) while making up 21 % of the entries (22).


Non-Preakness runners account for 89% of the Belmont winners (eight) while making up only 80% of the entries (87).

Da\'Tara and Sarava ran in the Preakness undercard, so maybe it\'s not having a fresh horse as much as the toll of running in the Preakness specifically.

Also, over that span, horses that ran in the Derby-Preakness are 50 percent out of the money in the Belmont (9 of 18). (and obviously 50 percent in the money).

[jimbo66]

Mike,

I think that is exactly the point that Covello and I are trying to make.  I have little doubt that over most any distance Shackleford is better than all the horses I will be betting on Saturday.  But I am willing to bet not at 1 1/2 miles.  A horse that can stay relatively close to the pace and then continue to grind away in the stretch likely won\'t win the Derby or Preakness, but can win the Belmont.  Drosselmayer is case in point.  He didn\'t \"close\" last year, he grinded while First Dude slowed to a crawl.

[miff]

Jim,

On that,we agree totally.If it\'s a war of attrition, a slow slug can get the money.Think that AK,Nehro,Shack and even MMM are pretty consistent runners, so the distance will have to get them all for a slow slug to win.

My invention better than yours.How can leave Joel out???


Mike

[jbelfior]

Rich:

A relevant question on its own, however the point was my argument against Nehro who has a 4.33.
While no one can argue against the fact that he is a talented 3yo, my gut (along with his DI and his final eight in Louisville) tells me that he is a poor play at 1 1/2, especially  @ 7/2.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Wish Rosario was on a dirt horse.  Not betting turf/poly horses on dry dirt tracks in Triple Crown races.

Brilliant Speed and Master of Hounds = Stately Victor, Monba, General Quarters, Dominican, Cowboy Cal, Pioneer of the Nile and Adriano.  

All horses who ran well on poly or turf and couldn\'t stand up on dry dirt.  

At least my invention has some decent dirt races.....(albeit not good enough to win nw/1.....)

[jimbo66]

7-2 on Nehro is a pipe dream.

5-2 sounds more like it....

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

You\'re more likely to be right than wrong with the 5/2 prediction. I just can\'t see him. Should not have been in a dogfight for second after making the lead against that pace.

I saw Paul LoDuca from TVG at Monmouth last Friday. Brilliant Speed a popular choice over there along  with MOH. Why the infatuation with late running turf horses??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

I also don\'t understand the affection for late running turf/poly horses, but it is pretty widespread, even on this board, even when the TG numbers don\'t really support them as contenders.

I guess the belief is that with the breed so \"speed oriented\" with barely any stamina in the dirt stallions, people are believing that turf/poly stayers can hold up better at 1 1/2 miles.  I don\'t see any proof of it on dry dirt tracks, but I will be willing to bet that Master of Hounds is single digit odds on Saturday, and there is no way he should be a shorter price than some of the dirt longshots in the race IMHO.

As for Nehro, I am not negative on him, but \"hoping\" that all the development he has had this year makes him more likely for a backward move in the Belmont.  (I say \"hope\" because I have no reason to believe it will).  If we saw that Shackleford setting the extremely slow Derby pace and still packing it in, finishing 4th, didn\'t stop him from running huge in the Preakness, why should we hold against Nehro when Nakatani, sensing a slow pace, took this horse out of his game, and stalked that pace while extremely wide, only to be passed late by just Animal Kingdom, who apparently loved the drying out, cuppy, tiring track.  Nehro lost a ton of ground, ran against his normal running style and still held off Mucho Macho Man.  Now, since he did barely hold off Mucho Macho Man, and surely would NOT have held him off if the race were longer, is a good argument IMHO that Mucho Macho Man, at 10-1ish, is a pretty good play on Saturday relative to Nehro\'s 5-2 or 3-1.  Putting Ramon up can only help this horse\'s chances, not to mention that the \"catbird\'s seat\", right behind Shackleford, is available, and Mucho Macho has enough tactical speed to take that seat.