Brilliant Speed

Michael D. · May 31, 2011, 11:58:14 AM

might be my Belmont horse. it\'s only going to take a decent mile and a half run to win this thing, and BS might be the one to do it if AK starts feeling the effects of the triple crown. took to the dirt just fine in the Derby, and is bred to keep going. perfect spacing. number last inflated a bit as wide wasn\'t necessarily bad, but AK, SHAK, Nehro, and MOH will all take serious action, so the price will be square.

thoughts on this guy?

too slow?

bounce?

and what do we make of MMM\'s shoe problem?

big18741 · May 31, 2011, 12:13:56 PM

Solid work over the strip on May 23rd the same day some of the Met horses worked.

miff · May 31, 2011, 12:16:44 PM

Mike D,

Pretty sharp NY trip guy gives BS a punchers chance in the Belmont, had nothing to do with being wide either.

MMM shoe problem legit, gets at least a half mulligan. Tough to know how this narrow rangy colt will stand up the previous hard races/training though.

Good Luck,

Mike

sekrah · May 31, 2011, 12:32:23 PM

MMM\'s shoe problem is the least of my worries.

He looks skin and bones in the recent pictures I\'ve seen of him. Kathy Ritvo is committing a cruelty to animals crime if she runs him in the Belmont. She has completely ruined this horse. Whatever it takes to keep her name in the press for a couple of extra weeks.

Michael D. · May 31, 2011, 01:15:52 PM

I hadn\'t heard about the work ... found this somewhere:

"He'll breeze again any day now," said Albertrani, who sent the Dynaformer colt out for a five-furlong work in 1:00.11 on May 23, his first breeze since finishing seventh in the Kentucky Derby. "He came out of the Derby fine, and came back with a good minute work, so everything looks to be going well since he ran."

jack72906 · May 31, 2011, 01:17:37 PM

Love Brilliant Speed and \'Hounds already. Nehro will be a must use underneath considering 3 straight second place finishes. Will also use AK and Shack underneath. 5 of the last 11 Belmont winners ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.

The interesting sleepers in the field to me are Santiva and Stay Thirsty. Distance shouldn\'t be a problem for either and good spacing between starts could mean a forward move for both is forthcoming.

MMM- Good horse...needs a break.

The rest either can\'t match up from a class standpoint or have distance limitations in my opinion.

jimbo66 · May 31, 2011, 01:48:47 PM

Michael,

The 1 1/2 miles makes this race a crapshoot, but I believe Brilliant Speed is one of the \"turf/poly\" horses that got moved up because of the way Churchill played on Derby day (drying out, cuppy track, with dead rail).

I prefer a different longshot, who may be a similar price. I don\'t have Santiva\'s sheet in front of me, but I believe he ran a huge race in Louisiana against Mucho Macho Man, where he spotted Mucho weight and was wider on both turns. I think he ran somewhere around a \"1\". I know it was aberrational against his other figures, but nonetheless, after the \"x\" in the Bluegrass, his race in the Derby has him moving in the right direction. He gets 5 weeks into the Belmont, and is now maybe 3 months from the \"1\". You could argue his pattern is \"circling back\" to the big figure and he is rested enough to run it.

To me, with Shackleford and Animal Kingdom likely to be showing some effects of their 3rd race in 5 weeks, if Santiva gets back to the \"1\", with a decent trip he could very well win, and he should be better than 10-1.

albany · May 31, 2011, 02:08:55 PM

Brilliant Speed\'s Blue Grass was a solid effort as he closed into a slow pace from last while posting a sizzling last 3/8. May have benefitted from condition of CD dirt, but it was nevertheless a good effort on that surface. As you have noted, his recent work was encouraging as is his spacing and pattern going into the Belmont. He should love the distance given his strong distaff pedigree which includes several stamina influences. On the negative side, he must lay closer since the Belmont does not generally play well for deep closers.

In sum, I think Brilliant Speed may present good value.

sekrah · May 31, 2011, 02:13:49 PM

Agree with jimbo on Santiva.

He did run a 1 in the Risen Star. He\'s definently circling back to it and it could be argued that he got caught towards the deadrail in the Derby.

Santiva will be a key for me. 10-1? He\'ll go off closer to 25-1 if Shack and AK both run.

Michael D. · May 31, 2011, 03:13:32 PM

Jim, agree with Sek. if they all show up, 20 to 25-1 on Santiva. can\'t argue with the value vs number power if he does drift that high.

drbillym · May 31, 2011, 03:52:05 PM

Michael D.: If I recall correctly, following the Derby you mentioned that Master of Hounds might be the horse to watch for the Belmont. If so, my wife would tell you what she always tells me, \"Stick to your first decision.\" The pedigree for distance is solid, he made up ground in the stretch in Kentucky, he has impeccable connections, and DO WE ALL AGREE THAT THIS IS A WEAK CROP IN THE U.S. THIS YEAR? Perfect spot for a fresh invader-hope he comes back over.

My vision for the pattern of the race is that JR will move too soon, but really won\'t have much choice, as he can\'t let Shack get too far away. If they hook up too soon, it sets up for closers like MOH, BS and Santiva. Juicy ex and tri box brewing.

Michael D. · May 31, 2011, 03:59:02 PM

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D.: If I recall correctly, following the
> Derby you mentioned that Master of Hounds might be
> the horse to watch for the Belmont. If so, my wife
> would tell you what she always tells me, \"Stick to
> your first decision.\" The pedigree for distance
> is solid, he made up ground in the stretch in
> Kentucky, he has impeccable connections, and DO WE
> ALL AGREE THAT THIS IS A WEAK CROP IN THE U.S.
> THIS YEAR? Perfect spot for a fresh invader-hope
> he comes back over.
>
> My vision for the pattern of the race is that JR
> will move too soon, but really won\'t have much
> choice, as he can\'t let Shack get too far away.
> If they hook up too soon, it sets up for closers
> like MOH, BS and Santiva. Juicy ex and tri box
> brewing.

hi Doc. I don\'t think I\'ve mentioned MOH in any of my posts. I used BS lightly underneath in the Derby, but had no MOH. too much turf in the pedigree, or so I thought. he ran well. nice colt, though I\'m not sure the value will be there in the Belmont.

drbillym · May 31, 2011, 04:29:05 PM

Michael, must have been one of the other heavies I like to follow(mj, Jimbo, and Rick B).

Bigredgoer · May 31, 2011, 05:23:35 PM

Agree with most of everyone\'s thought process here except ...who is going to keep Shack honest on the front end? He does have the pedigree to go that far IMO. Inclined to agree more with jimbo regarding BS, i.e.; CD playing favorably to Turf/Synth horses and being in the right part of the track that day.