My take on the Preakness and Black Eyed Susan

[mjellish]

I\'ve got a couple of opinions on the Preakness.

I think there is one big unknown which tempers my enthusiasm for betting the Preakness big.  We don\'t know how AK is going to run and/or take to the Pimlico strip.  As I\'ve posted here on the board, to me he runs more like a turfer, and I don\'t like to play back on horses that run big first time on dirt.  By strictly reading his sheet I would say he backs up.  How much he backs up is the real question.  But by everything I am hearing, the horse is doing fantastic at Fair Hill and acts as if the Derby took nothing out of him.  So for me, he\'s tough to like as the favorite but he\'s also tough to play against.

Lot\'s of talk about DI getting a poor ride in the Derby, not having a pace to run into, etc.  I\'ve heard a fair number people say they think he runs much better here.  But I don\'t like him at all.  He was slow coming into the Derby and trained very gingerly leading up to the race.  That\'s usually not a recipe for winning a spring classic.  He\'s also been galloping like a sore horse, but race day meds can make a big difference. Even considering that, he\'s still slow and still faces the same problem of having to come from last to first in a large field, which could mean wide trip.  I think the pace will be solid here, but it doesn\'t look to be suicidal unless one of the early speed types gets hyped up and tries to run off.  And even if that happens the rest of the horses won\'t necessarily follow suit. I think he will take about the same amount of money as MMM.  He would need to fire a new top to win adn I don\'t see it.  I think he is more likely to miss completely.  So for me he is a bet against.

Unlike DI, MMM was trained very hard for the KY Derby.  Ritvo also gave him a decent work in between the Derby and Preakness.  He still hasn\'t run back to his 2 yr old top, which is a negative to me.  But because he\'s got that big number sitting there and was well rested coming into the Derby, he still has room for developement and doesn\'t have to bounce here.  He may even move forward, and I think the slightly shorter distance helps him.  The negative for me is that he doesn\'t seem to be very mature or focused yet when he runs.  Lots of talk about him being a late foal.  If he breaks through now and gets back to his 2 year old top he is a real danger to win.  But I think he has a better shot to get up for a piece.

Overall I really like SHAK as a horse, and I liked him alot to hit the board and possibly win in the KY Derby.  In fact, here is what I said about him in a PM on Oaks Day:

 \"I\'m going to single JV over Archarcharch, Shackleford & Animal Kingdom in the Oaks/Derby double. I may not do the AAA bet if the value isn\'t there, as I make him 25% to get a terrible trip from the rail and 40% to have at least enough trouble that it has an impact. So I have to get some value to mitigate that, and with Mo scratching some of the value in that pool just went away. If they don\'t go too fast early in the Derby I think SHAK has a good shot to hang on and be there in the end, more so for a piece but I want something on him in case he actually wins. He\'s going to be a price and he\'s a gamer, but the distance may be just out of his reach. IMO 20-1 or so odds makes up for that risk. And AK just scares the hell out of me because he\'s got a perfect style for this, bred to love the added distance, he tries every time, has good spacing, he has some dirt breeding and worked like a monster on it last week. Big odds on him as well.\"

I did not play the JV/AAA Oaks/Derby double.  I did play the JV/AK, SHAK double, but obviously missed when JV did not win the Oaks. So althought I liked SHAK in the Derby, that was then.  This is now.  To me, this horse ran as hard as he could have in Louisville.  That was an all out effort.  I don\'t know how much the bad rail affected him, but in any case he just came up of short of providing me with a huge score if he could have held on for 3rd.  I think that all out effort is going to cost him here.  He has a history of running poorly on 3 weeks rest in the Fountain of Youth.  Now he has to come back in two weeks.  Other than perhaps spending too much time on a dead rail in the KY Derby, he got a perfect set up setting a pretty slow early pace, and he still couldn\'t hang on.  So I think 1 1/8th is about his limit, which means he could get 1 3/16th under the right circumstances, but he faces more early pressure here.  He can rate, however, so he could still run well.  But I don\'t see him firing a new top here, and word I have is that the derby seems to have taken something out of him.  He isn\'t galloping with the same energy, he\'s lost some weight and is looking a little worse for the wear.  So in this spot, he is a reluctant play against for me.

Baffert\'s horse could do anything here.  The Derby was more or less a non-effort for him.  So he could come back with a pair or a new top.  Great unknown.  His price will probably be fair though, so I use him on half my tickets and toss him on the rest.

Dance City ran very well in the Arkansas Derby.  He was the only early pace horse that hung around late and he arguably ran one of the best races and certainly ran his heart out.  Word I heard was that he was a dead tired horse coming out of that race.  And now he would need to run a new top here to win.  He hasn\'t trained like a new top is forthcoming, so I don\'t see that.  I see a pair at best, and that isn\'t going to be good enough.  He\'s also going to take some money here and I think he will be an underlay based on what I view his actual chances to win or make the exotics are.  I view him much the same as Baffert\'s horse.  But he is a reluctant use for me on half my tickets, and a toss on the rest.

I really like Sway Away to fire a big one here.  I\'m not sure of that.  But he is training like a monster and his ARK Derby was much better than it looked.  When a horse gets bumped around pretty hard like he did it tends to stress them out and take away energy.  He was pretty rank all the way around the first turn, got a wide trip, moved prematurely into a fast pace (which being rank may not have been the jock\'s fault), took the lead and then ran out of gas the last 100 yards or so.  I think that was a pretty good effort all things considered.  Now he comes in fresh, fit as a fiddle and ready to fire a new top IF he can relax early.  At his likely odds I\'m betting he does.  He\'s my key horse.

Most of the new shooters look fairly over matched to me.  But you can make a case for a few of them could lump up and hit the board, especially for the bottom of the supers.  I have noticed over the years that horses that have been based at Pimlico and run well over it can tend to run surprisingly good races in the Preakness, so I think you have to consider that when structuring your bet.

GL to all.

[richiebee]

Wow.

Catching up on the Preakness posts just now.

Jimbo, MJellish, Michael D. and Len Friedman all gonzo for Sway Away.

Hope the wife will loan me some drachmas to play this International good thing.

[TGJB]

That horse is a good example of what I was talking about around the time of the Rebel-- Ragozin has Cal sprints way fast compared to everything else, including Cal routes. Take a look at him and Sway Away on Ragozin, they also had The Factor faster in his Cal sprint than in the Rebel.

[Silver Charm]

I think AK @ 3-1 or less has to be played against. There tends to be separation at the finish of the Derby so a winner can look much better than the rest. This spring the 3YO\'s have taken turns beating each other and I dont think it stops here. One thing for sure about this string is when the race is over.....somebody will be able to say they HAD IT!!

[miff]

Raggies all over Sway Away, much faster on their stuff.

[TGJB]

MJ-- regarding AK doing well since the Derby, here\'s my question. We included sheets for barbaro and several other horses who jumped to a huge figure Derby weekend and ran back in the Preakness in with this week\'s data. What did you hear about those horses coming out of the Derby, if anything?

[TGJB]

I\'ve got their stuff. He\'s faster relative to some, not all. Biggest difference is on Flashpoint, which may or may not be moot because of the distance. Friedman\'s rundown is very similar to mine in terms of who the contenders are and the position on the two favorites, unfortunately.

[miff]

Yeah, but how do you think your customers would view SA if your 3.5\'s were 1.25\'s?

[Beginner]

Thanks for the revision.  Quick question, the Thoro-Pattern info isn\'t shown, but I presume it\'s the same as the earlier sheet as the 3/4 point differnece would still result in a pair, correct?  

Also, thanks for including the sheets of the past big jump up Derby horses. I think AK is a bet against for a variety of reasons, but I\'m rooting for him anyway.  The Belmont is always a lot more exciting when there\'s a chance for a TC winner.  Despite the sheet, Baffert/Garcia in the 7 hole (again) scares me...a lot. Had it backward last year - bet on LAL in the Derby and against him in the Preakness.

[TGJB]

That\'s not the situation. First of all, they don\'t have him that fast relative to the whole field (the inside three, Shirrefs and Baffert are all faster relative to us), second of all, his pattern is MUCH better on ours. They have his last 1 1/2 points worse than his top and both routes not as good as his sprint top. As you might have noticed, several of us here like him, to various degrees.

[mjellish]

I know Jerry, and I get where you are going with this.  AK has never run on short rest.  If he was high odds then I would play him.  At low odds, only one way to play him no matter what you are hearing.  But I am going to temper my bet because I am not going to go all in against him here.  And like I said, if he beats you, you play against him harder in the Belmont, maybe even ALL IN, and make him beat you again.  

With regards to your question about the other horses, I played against Rachel in the Preakness coming off a -4 on two weeks rest from the outside post at Pimlico.  Word on how she was doing was neutral and there was a stable switch.  She beat me.  I would play it the same way again though.  No regrets.

I passed the Big Brown Preakness.

I used Closing Argument with Afleet Alex and he did nothing.

Barbaro was a tough one.  Reminds me a lot of AK by the way.  More of a turf runner, never had to run on short rest, impressive derby winner.  As an aside, I passed the 2006 Preakness.  My father was with me and couldn\'t believe I would pass.  He asked me for a bet.  I gave him 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL and told him to watch when he hits but makes very little money.  Then I watch Barbaro break through the gate before the race.  Never have really seen a horse run well after that.  So told my father, \"Hell, he may go off form here.  Did you put that bet in?\"  He says of course.  I asked him if I could buy in for half and he says no...  

So I dashed up to the window to try to get a bet in thinking they would at least check Barbaro out before loading him.  They didn\'t.  Wheeled him right around and put him in the gate.  I never got in.  My father cashed a very nice ticket and tipped me $1000.  But after watching Barbaro break down I could have cared less.

[TGJB]

Yes on the Thoro-Pattern.

One thing you know about Garcia on MI is he will not make a big attempt to save ground. He pretty much goes straight ahead from whatever post he\'s in. One of the differences between this race and the derby is there are some jocks on contenders this time who will make an effort to save ground, and at least one trainer (Asmussen) who will give instructions to do so.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t bring up the similarity to Barbaro because I thought someone might shoot me. AK certainly doesn\'t have to go bad, but he\'s vulnerable to it. My record on this is pretty good (fears for Rachel notwithstanding, Miff).

I agree completely about going after AK again heavy in the Belmont if he beats me here-- that was exactly what I did with War Emblem, Big Brown, Smarty, and probably some others. In the BB Belmont I (and some others here) used all except two horses on my tickets-- BB and the ridiculous Zito winner.

But the point is this. Michael Dickinson and I may have only agreed on one thing ever-- that horses who run a big race often look good coming out of it, but come out of the next one looking not so good, even though they ran much worse. You are obviously better off with the horse looking good than not, but it\'s not definitive.

[miff]

\"AK certainly doesn\'t have to go bad, but he\'s vulnerable to it\"


....so is every horse in every race being run at every track today!

[mjellish]

The Big Brown Belmont is another painful one for me.  If Da Tara doesn\'t win that race I still don\'t know how much money I am taking down.  More than my wife could have spent that year.  Huge Pick 4 to Dennis of Cork.  Live to him and a few others in a big Pick 6.  A big TRI to the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th place horses and a decent super with the heavy, heavy favorite BB completely off the board.

Jeezuz, now I\'ve got that open wound as well to think about today. And I still haven\'t let myself have a drop of Jack Daniels since the Derby because I\'m afraid I will wind up going into a rant with whomever I am with over SHAK just barely not hanging on for 3rd and costing me a huge score.  

I\'m probably not in the right frame of mind to make any kind of wager.  But I am going to go out to the local strip today and make an advance wager on the Preakness anyway.  Then it\'s up to the Lake and watch it from there because I don\'t think I can handle another 50 minute ride back from the track after a near miss.  And no matter what, I can console myself if I get beat by AK knowing I\'ve still got the Belmont and that I don\'t have to think about much after that until the Haskell and Saratoga.  Win or lose, I am taking most of the summer off.