My take on the Preakness and Black Eyed Susan

[covelj70]

for whatever it\'s worth, here\'s my take on the Preakness now that we have the sheets and the post positions

1) Astrology.  I will not be using him.  I hate the post in a field this size, the horse has never won going 2 turns, none of his siblings ever routed successfully and his jockey will ensure that he looses alot of ground on the far turn. He didn\'t look like he wanted to go any further in his last race and the pedigree/siblings support that visual. He needs to jump up to win and I don\'t see that happening given the above factors.

2) Norman - has already made his big improvement as a two year and the further improvement he would need to contend isn\'t likely

3) King Congie - very usable for me at a price.  Has never gone backward, his dirt tries weren\'t that slow given the natural progression of the horse and he shows up everytime.  I think he has a much better chance of moving forward in this race than Astrology and Sway Away who will both be shorter odds than him.  I also love the jockey switch given this horses running style

4) Flashpoint - I think this horse is an automatic toss and am shocked that Jerry suggested using him.  He\'s a sprinter that was awful in his only route try and, especially given the fact that the Shack will keep him busy on the front end.  There\'s just absolutely nothing here that says this horse will revert back to his one big sprint number. I would bet alot of money that he spits it up and finishes last in the race.

5) Shackleford - couldn\'t run his number despite a dream set up in the Derby so I don\'t see him getting back to his best effort on 2 weeks rest and with alot more pressure in this one.  I don\'t like him at all here.

6) Sway Away - another one who has never won around 2 turns and whose siblings didn\'t route either despite the Seattle Slew bottom side.  Also notice that his siblings didn\'t run very often and his guy obviously had some physical issues as a two year old and then reacted to the first effort as a 3 year old.  He got back to the top in his 3rd start as a 3 year old but notice the \"bi\" which suggests that he\'s likely to react to the top again, which is support by the unsound history of his pedigree.  Finally, Dance City passed him in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby after SA had gone by him at the top of the stretch which I don\'t like at all.  I don\'t like him here.

7) Midnight Interlude - ran a clunker in the Derby and would need to run a new top here to be competitive which is hard to see coming off such an awful race last time.  I liked him for the Derby but there\'s no reason to believe that he\'s going to miraculously jump up to a new top which he will need only 2 weeks after he ran up the track.  I could see him coming back to the top in the best case scenario but not a new top.

Dance City - He\'s my pick to win the race.  Is improving, has the right running style, gets the best jock and has proven he can win going 2 turns which is something alot of the new shooters in this race haven\'t done.  I loved his Arkansas Derby where he passed Sway Away in the stretch after contending a brutal pace and encountering traffic trouble.  Obviously that Arkansas Derby form has held up very well and I think he is the key in this race at at double digit odds.  He acted up at the gate before the AD and so he needs to show he can handle the crowd but the saddling in the infield could help him.  He\'s a stalker who sat 3 lengths off the speed in the AD, not a pure speed horse so I don\'t think people who are expecting him to fall victim to the pace are right about that scenario.

9) Mucho Macho Man - definitely usable but tough for me to play on top for a few reasons: First, I think the \"bo\" in the Derby is very relevant. The last time he ran a big number in the Remsen, it took him a long time to get back to a big effort and the \"bo\" shows this effort took its toll as well.  I don\'t think he will repeat that effort on 2 weeks rest.  Another issue is the jockey.  He has gotten more horses into bad situations in big races than any other young jockey I know.  I will never get over his ride on Negligee in the BC Juv Fillies at SA.  I didn\'t bet him but I played the horse he interfered with in the stretch because he has stone hands and no presence on the horse.  After that, I started watching him very closely and he either takes them very wide or gets them into alot of trouble.  Again, I think you can use him but I will not be playing him to win at the 5-1 he\'s likely to go off at.

10) Dialed In - has never run that fast and I don\'t see a new top coming on 2 weeks rest for a horse that has needed to have his races spaced so significantly because of all of the physical issues.  Alot has been made about him passing horses in the stretch of the Derby.  Anyone making that argument needs to go back and look at the talent level or physical condition (i.e. broken leg, ankle chip coming out of the race) of he horses he passed.  They were terrible so any horse that had saved himself early on was going to pass those creatures.  A toss for me in the exacta and tri as one of the favorites.

11) Animal Kingdom - I fall into the camp that he will bounce eventually but that it doesn\'t have to be here and since I don\'t like very many other horses, I won\'t let him beat me in the exacta or the tri, especially since my key horse is a good price.  He could back up a point or 2 and still win so I think throwing him out makes no sense at all.  He\'s an awesome looking lightly raced horse who carries alot of weight so there\'s no reason a slight negative number has to knock this horse out.  I didn\'t use him anywhere on my derby tickets under the erroneous assumption that he wouldn\'t like the dirt but now that we know he does, playing him for a bounce in this one is risky. It\'s not like he ran a rachael or Big Brown type figure.  I said on this board years ago that if anyone ever wins the triple crown again, it will be a horse who runs a relatively slow figure to win the derby.  That theory will be tested this year.

12) Isn\'t he perfect - too slow coming in and no reason to believe he will get the improvement he needs to contend

13) Concealed Identity - not enough time to recover from the big effort 2 back and a bad post.  If he hadn\'t drawn out here, I might consider him underneath

14) Mr. Commons - way too slow coming in.  Could jump up alot but the post will let me take a stand against that mattering even if he does jump.

Bottom line for me is that Dance City is my key and the one I will be betting to win and place and I will use him in the exacta with AK and MMM and I will use King Congie in the Tris.

In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal Delta.  Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great post for a small field like this, will love the extra distance and showed she is a special filly when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad break and traffic trouble.  We all know that Billy doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to do what she did and then follow that up with the freakish performance at Keenland last out says she is a very very special filly so I will be playing bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a smaller 1x1 double.

Good luck to all

[albany]

Enjoyed reading your analysis and appreciate the thought that went into it.

Assuming the validity of the case you have made for Dance City, I am having trouble understanding how Sway Away can be tossed. After all, he finished right behind your horse. Yes, it is true he ran erratically down the stretch which allowed Dance City to pass him. However, his bad behavior could reasonably be attributed to the tough trip he had (jostled soon after the start, wide in the first turn and an ill-advised middle move while going wide on the second turn). Given his trouble line, the close finish to your key horse and his very good work record coming up to this race, it would be a shame if you miss an exotic if he hits the Board with Dance City.

Albany

[covelj70]

Thanks for the thoughts Albany.  Really appreciate it and of course you could be right, that said, my thought would be that Dance City has to improve to win the race but I think he can whereas I don\' see Sway Away as being as likely to improve from that last race.

His long gaps between races from 2 to 3, bounce off the previous good figure, \"bi\" in his last race and his family history all suggest a fragile horse and I don\'t like to play those kind to run the race of their life in the toughest race of their life.

He\'s never won going 2 turns and had every right to spurt away from the rest of the field down the lane in the AD but he hit a wall going 1 1/8 so there\'s just not enough there to show me that he\'s suddenly going to jump up and run a big new top going the extra distance.

Again, I could definitely be wrong (hell, I was a disaster in the Derby) but I have to draw the line somewhere on the ticket and this guy falls below the line for me.

Good luck!

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Question for you.  Have you just read the sheet for Sway Away or have you recently watched his race/trip in the Arkansas Derby?  I ask that because I find it extremely hard to believe you would have watched Sway Away\'s Arkansas Derby and thought he had a \"right to spurt away from the rest\".  The horse was pushed out of the gate by PVal, then he tried to grab a hold when he saw an onslaught of leavers.  The horse resisted being held up and was rank and wide into the first turn.  He then moved early into the second turn, wide again.

He got rubber legged like a drunken sailor late and therefore it seemed that Dance City \"came again\" to get by him.  That was an illusion.  Watching their two respective races, IMO Sway Away got much the worst of the trips.  Dance City was not warring it on the front end.  He sat two lengths off the hot pace.  He got a relatively good trip (which he might get again, which is why I have to use him in the super)

As for calling Sway Away\'s 2nd race this year a \"bounce\" that would be soemthing Miff would call \"kool aid\" drinking  He went through the gate, lost 4 teeth and was climbing 50 yards out of the gate, extremely uncomfortable.  Yep, technically a bounce, but I view it as a mulligan and throw out.  

Give me Gomez on Sway Away, with a nice post (6), where he gets the horse to relax mid-pack and then lets him run approaching the far turn, I will take my chances at 10-1 or so,

Also love Astrology.  He got conditioning going 1 1/8 first time out off a long layoff and ran OK, chasing a very hot pace while 3 wide.  Came out of that and was wisely pointed to the Preakness by Asmussen, so he put him in the Jerome for a nice 1 mile tightener, where he unfortunately drew the rail on a  wet track and got an uncomfortable trip.  Still, he paired up.  Same 1 mile elongated sprint prep that Bernardini had (except his was the Withers I believe).  Couldn\'t agree more with TGJB that Astrologie has to be the horse most likely to run a new top.  

Will be pummeling Royal Delta over those two in the Doubles, hoping to get about 70 or 80 bucks for every 4.  (expecting 2-1 on Royal Delta)

Good luck,

[big18741]

Agree on all but King Congie and Astrology.

King Congie could move up on dirt but nothing out of the Bluegrass was relevant moving to dirt in their next race:

Santiva 6th
BSpeed-7th
TwinSpired-17th
Newsdad-8th Peter Pan.

On Astrology all of those siblings were sired by sprinter/milers:

Yes Its True
Succesful Appeal
Grand Slam

The difference with AP Indy could be significant.The AP/Quiet American cross has thrown routers.So I give him some chance to run the new top.Smith actually saved all of the ground on Jackson Bend last year and he was 1w1w on Twinspired in this years Derby.Think he\'s gonna be forced into a rail trip the way it plays out.

[TreadHead]

Jim, is Citrus Kid doing OK?  Just wondering since you mentioned the Dixie was a strong possibility for him after passing on the Woodford.

[Lost Cause]

I think the everyone will be pounding Royal Delta on Friday.  Does anyone know what happened to her at Tampa?  I\'m looking for some kind of excuse...

[jimbo66]

Lost Cause,

No specific excuse at Tampa.  The only thing I will tell you is that the Tampa race came in the middle of a 6 or 7 week run where just about every horse from Mott\'s barn ran awful.  It was talked about here on the board (by me and others).

Hard to explain, but it happened, and now his horses are running well again.

Royal Delta will be no bargain, no more than 2-1 and possibly as low as 8-5.  The jockey change to Leparoux for Wyomia and her big win over Royal Delta at Tampa will keep those two horses close together in the wagering.  Lousy job by the morning line maker IMO making Dominguez\'s horse 2nd choice.  

Howeve, when you are playing doubles to longshots, 2-1 is OK for Royal Delta.

[Donut]

who does nick s. like?

[Lost Cause]

Thanks Jimbo,
I noted Mott\'s terrible showing during that time period but man that race was bad for a horse that looked so impressive before.  I have the same strong opinions on Royal Delta everyone seems to be having but I hoped I would have a better reason to throw out the non-effort besides Mott being bad then.  .  I am probably all in on this one in my plays but that one Tampa race just hurts to look at..

[alm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> for whatever it\'s worth, here\'s my take on the
> Preakness now that we have the sheets and the post
> positions
>
> 1) Astrology.  I will not be using him.  I hate
> the post in a field this size, the horse has never
> won going 2 turns, none of his siblings ever
> routed successfully and his jockey will ensure
> that he looses alot of ground on the far turn. He
> didn\'t look like he wanted to go any further in
> his last race and the pedigree/siblings support
> that visual. He needs to jump up to win and I
> don\'t see that happening given the above factors.
 
Boy do I disagree with these observations...first, if you ask me to discount the one-post at Pimlico, you are asking me to forget 45 years of handicapping experience at that track...second, this horse is by AP Indy out of a Fappiano line mare and is eligible to be any kind at any distance (having bred a few mares over many years I never noticed that the siblings were all similar...quite the opposite)...third, this is a premier jockey who has gotten it done over and over...fourth, excluding AK who can win if he regresses only slightly, EVERY other horse in this field needs to jump up to win...fifth, his preparation reminds me strongly of the way Super Saver came to last year\'s Derby...2 very useful prep races in this case...and he was pointed for this one, not the last 2.  A definite key in the race.

> 2) Norman - has already made his big improvement
> as a two year and the further improvement he would
> need to contend isn\'t likely

Agree.
>
> 3) King Congie - very usable for me at a price.
> Has never gone backward, his dirt tries weren\'t
> that slow given the natural progression of the
> horse and he shows up everytime.  I think he has a
> much better chance of moving forward in this race
> than Astrology and Sway Away who will both be
> shorter odds than him.  I also love the jockey
> switch given this horses running style

Maybe.

> 4) Flashpoint - I think this horse is an automatic
> toss and am shocked that Jerry suggested using
> him.  He\'s a sprinter that was awful in his only
> route try and, especially given the fact that the
> Shack will keep him busy on the front end.
> There\'s just absolutely nothing here that says
> this horse will revert back to his one big sprint
> number. I would bet alot of money that he spits it
> up and finishes last in the race.

Agree.

> 5) Shackleford - couldn\'t run his number despite a
> dream set up in the Derby so I don\'t see him
> getting back to his best effort on 2 weeks rest
> and with alot more pressure in this one.  I don\'t
> like him at all here.

Didn\'t like him in Kentucky...like him less here.
 
> 6) Sway Away - another one who has never won
> around 2 turns and whose siblings didn\'t route
> either despite the Seattle Slew bottom side.  Also
> notice that his siblings didn\'t run very often and
> his guy obviously had some physical issues as a
> two year old and then reacted to the first effort
> as a 3 year old.  He got back to the top in his
> 3rd start as a 3 year old but notice the \"bi\"
> which suggests that he\'s likely to react to the
> top again, which is support by the unsound history
> of his pedigree.  Finally, Dance City passed him
> in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby after SA had
> gone by him at the top of the stretch which I
> don\'t like at all.  I don\'t like him here.


I was thinking the same way, but some pretty smart guys on this board have convinced me this one HAS to be used.  In any case, his quitting in the stretch (for whatever reason) at Oaklawn is no reason to move another horse up in your mind (meaning Dance City...DC passing him was an optical illusion...he was just slowing down more slowly)

> 7) Midnight Interlude - ran a clunker in the Derby
> and would need to run a new top here to be
> competitive which is hard to see coming off such
> an awful race last time.  I liked him for the
> Derby but there\'s no reason to believe that he\'s
> going to miraculously jump up to a new top which
> he will need only 2 weeks after he ran up the
> track.  I could see him coming back to the top in
> the best case scenario but not a new top.

What is Baffert doing here?  Seems ridiculous.  BUT he\'s here.  Don\'t count this one out.

> Dance City - He\'s my pick to win the race.  Is
> improving, has the right running style, gets the
> best jock and has proven he can win going 2 turns
> which is something alot of the new shooters in
> this race haven\'t done.  I loved his Arkansas
> Derby where he passed Sway Away in the stretch
> after contending a brutal pace and encountering
> traffic trouble.  Obviously that Arkansas Derby
> form has held up very well and I think he is the
> key in this race at at double digit odds.  He
> acted up at the gate before the AD and so he needs
> to show he can handle the crowd but the saddling
> in the infield could help him.  He\'s a stalker who
> sat 3 lengths off the speed in the AD, not a pure
> speed horse so I don\'t think people who are
> expecting him to fall victim to the pace are right
> about that scenario.

Boy does his Oaklawn race look iffy to me...can\'t use him except for a piece in a vertical bet.

> 9) Mucho Macho Man - definitely usable but tough
> for me to play on top for a few reasons: First, I
> think the \"bo\" in the Derby is very relevant. The
> last time he ran a big number in the Remsen, it
> took him a long time to get back to a big effort
> and the \"bo\" shows this effort took its toll as
> well.  I don\'t think he will repeat that effort on
> 2 weeks rest.  Another issue is the jockey.  He
> has gotten more horses into bad situations in big
> races than any other young jockey I know.  I will
> never get over his ride on Negligee in the BC Juv
> Fillies at SA.  I didn\'t bet him but I played the
> horse he interfered with in the stretch because he
> has stone hands and no presence on the horse.
> After that, I started watching him very closely
> and he either takes them very wide or gets them
> into alot of trouble.  Again, I think you can use
> him but I will not be playing him to win at the
> 5-1 he\'s likely to go off at.

I gotta agree on the jockey...he\'s a mess, loses focus, whatever...I usually throw out his entries in 2-turn races all things being equal.  However, this is quite a horse...likely for part.


>
> 10) Dialed In - has never run that fast and I
> don\'t see a new top coming on 2 weeks rest for a
> horse that has needed to have his races spaced so
> significantly because of all of the physical
> issues.  Alot has been made about him passing
> horses in the stretch of the Derby.  Anyone making
> that argument needs to go back and look at the
> talent level or physical condition (i.e. broken
> leg, ankle chip coming out of the race) of he
> horses he passed.  They were terrible so any horse
> that had saved himself early on was going to pass
> those creatures.  A toss for me in the exacta and
> tri as one of the favorites.

You make a good case...however, they are running for a lot more money than anyone else in here and you have to respect that.
 
> 11) Animal Kingdom - I fall into the camp that he
> will bounce eventually but that it doesn\'t have to
> be here and since I don\'t like very many other
> horses, I won\'t let him beat me in the exacta or
> the tri, especially since my key horse is a good
> price.  He could back up a point or 2 and still
> win so I think throwing him out makes no sense at
> all.  He\'s an awesome looking lightly raced horse
> who carries alot of weight so there\'s no reason a
> slight negative number has to knock this horse
> out.  I didn\'t use him anywhere on my derby
> tickets under the erroneous assumption that he
> wouldn\'t like the dirt but now that we know he
> does, playing him for a bounce in this one is
> risky. It\'s not like he ran a rachael or Big Brown
> type figure.  I said on this board years ago that
> if anyone ever wins the triple crown again, it
> will be a horse who runs a relatively slow figure
> to win the derby.  That theory will be tested this
> year.

The likely winner...the likely biggest bounce.  Take your pick...I understand Jerry Brown\'s analysis and respect that he has to bet this race the way he would bet any race, which set up this way...however, I think this race is about Astrology and Animal Kingdom and will bet it that way.   If I am right, it can still be a major TRI and SUPER.

The rest of these should just stay out of the way.

>
> 12) Isn\'t he perfect - too slow coming in and no
> reason to believe he will get the improvement he
> needs to contend
>
> 13) Concealed Identity - not enough time to
> recover from the big effort 2 back and a bad post.
>  If he hadn\'t drawn out here, I might consider him
> underneath
>
> 14) Mr. Commons - way too slow coming in.  Could
> jump up alot but the post will let me take a stand
> against that mattering even if he does jump.
>
> Bottom line for me is that Dance City is my key
> and the one I will be betting to win and place and
> I will use him in the exacta with AK and MMM and I
> will use King Congie in the Tris.
>
> In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal
> Delta.  Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great
> post for a small field like this, will love the
> extra distance and showed she is a special filly
> when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad
> break and traffic trouble.  We all know that Billy
> doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to
> do what she did and then follow that up with the
> freakish performance at Keenland last out says she
> is a very very special filly so I will be playing
> bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a
> smaller 1x1 double.
>
> Good luck to all

[miff]

Ugh, poor Royal Delta, carrying all the mushes on the planet on her back tomorrow!


Mike

[miff]

\"...first, if you ask me to discount the one-post at Pimlico, you are asking me to forget 45 years of handicapping\"


Al,

I doubt that Cov was referencing the one post as being bad from a favorable ground saving type trip perspective.Rail is king,except in races with long runs to the first turn for certain styled runners in big fields.

Astrology is always forwardly placed, mainly outside-ish, and will have to deal with at least 3 horses possibly \"covering him up\" along the fence,his worst possible dynamic,imo. Did not look totally comfortable to me along the inside in his last, maybe the fence is a negative for this horse. As you know it is for many.

Think he has a punchers chance but agree with Cov that the inside, for his running style, may not be the best the way the race looks on paper.Smith has no options but to go and try to find a good spot a few off the leaders.I\'ll guess he comes off the rail if he gets the chance.

Good luck!

Mike

[alm]

Thanks Mike...I get that...I can see it being a problem...however, it may not be a problem at all in one scenario I can imagine: if the 2 speed take off together Smith can tuck in behind them while others take back because they are going so fast...in other words Smith gets the pressing advantage.

That\'s only one scenario and for sure it may not happen.  However, it\'s a good probability IMO.  I could be wrong, but Wesley Ward does not train horses to take back...Flashpoint will go...Shackelford??? will probably go.  Pimlico is a great place for second-flight pressers...(think Winning Colors and Forty Niner spreading out the field in a stupid speed duel) and they have an advantage in this scenario.  If Smith gets the trip early on, his horse is dangerous.  He\'s coming into this race perfectly...but still has to beat the Derby horse.

[miff]

Al,

In my small mind, I have Dance City in that nice spot you describe. When the gate opens, sometimes all that looks on paper goes awry anyway.

Mike