Today's NY Post

[TGJB]

These are the lengths I have to go to in order to get sheet theory discussed on this board?

Funny thing is I did a search to be able to attach this using Kerrison/Brown/synthetic, and found I gave him almost the identical rant in April 2009.




BALTIMORE -- Animal Kingdom\'s shock 20-1 win in the Kentucky Derby drew a blistering response yesterday from Jerry Brown, one of America\'s most prominent horse racing experts, who called it the triumph \"of a crap shoot.\"

And if you like Animal Kingdom in Saturday\'s Preakness, beware, he added.

Brown is the proprietor of Thoro-Graph, a speed-chart service widely used by owners and trainers nationwide to evaluate horses and their breeding.

What\'s got him -- and legions of serious bettors -- riled up is that Animal Kingdom went into the Derby after running three races on synthetic surfaces and one on turf. He had never raced on dirt, the Derby surface.

\"They\'ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,\" Brown fumed. \"The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you\'re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

\"This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It\'s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.\"

Animal Kingdom was not the only horse to run in the Derby off a good performance on a synthetic surface. Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, first and second in Keeneland\'s Blue Grass, Master of Hounds, second in the Dubai Derby, and Decisive Moment, second to Animal Kingdom in the Spiral at Turfway, lined up. Not one of them hit the board.

\"All this movement from tracks to tracks, surfaces to surfaces, has exponentially increased the number of variables in handicapping,\" Brown said. \"It\'s impossible. It\'s just a crap shoot.\"

So what do you do about Animal Kingdom in the Preakness, which is run on dirt and where he is likely to start as favorite?

\"I don\'t like him,\" Brown said. \"He has two histories working against him. First, a lot of horses who jump up and win on dirt after racing on synthetics do not repeat. They react badly to it. We like to say they\'re \'won and done.\' Second, his Derby race was so much better than any other race he has run, and I don\'t expect him to reproduce it, coming back on only two weeks rest. Exertion takes its toll.

\"Some horses, like Big Brown and Rachel Alexandra, were able to win the Preakness with subpar races because they were so much better than their competition,\" Brown added. \"But Animal Kingdom is not that much better than the competition. His best race will give him a shot to win, but I think he\'s almost certain to back up.\"

Brown is not sold on Dialed In either. Dialed In was the tepid 5-1 Derby favorite who flew through the stretch but could manage only eighth, beaten more than seven lengths.

\"I think he is overrated,\" Brown said. \"He won two races in Florida, the Holy Bull, where he got a perfect trip up the rail, and the Florida Derby, which collapsed for him.

\"He\'s just not that good a horse. I think it\'s unlikely he will win the Preakness.\"

Well, who will?

Without knowing the actual field or post positions, Brown said Mucho Macho Man was the most solid horse in the race.

\"He\'s improving with every race, and if he\'s not the likely Preakness winner, he is the most likely horse to run well,\" he said.

He is also looking at some long shots such as Astrology, Dance City and Sway Away.

\"There\'s a lot of room for good things to happen if you\'re betting the race,\" Brown said.

[CHOWDERMAN]

based on how brilliant speed and Ak were moving forward on their sheet patterns, respectively, prior to the derby, would it not have been a proper guess, at the huge odds they both were at, to predict, what i call for synth horses, \"the dirt bump\"...both jumped a few points to a new top, and i reference baffert horses two or three years ago that came to saratoga and first time dirt, jumped 2 or 3 pts to a new top...is this not considered a good angle by you at this point or is there not enough info regarding synth horses going to dirt...another point, you\'ve now had 3 horses considered turf/synth win the derby in the last 6 runnings of the ky derby...barbaro, brown and ak....maybe if you get the right one, they have a better chance based on conditioning and breeding to get the mile and a quarter distance than most of the pure dirt horses....i know some of the other synth horses bounced this year, but ak did not have that far to move to be right in the mix...thanks...

[CHOWDERMAN]

ps....i\'ve only been using your product for 3 years since you called the tri in big browns derby...i\'m still learning from everybody here...got a dialed in question...the horse bounced, not badly, in the derby...why can\'t he move forward now a few points, to a new top and that would put him as a contender...he\'s lightly raced, and he really should improve here as he should be fit, zito knows what he\'s doing in these races when he doesn\'t have the favorite...he knows how to rebound very well...the pace and price should be right...

[jbelfior]

TGJB:

I\'m sure that you realize that every horse mentioned in Kerrison\'s article has never won a race beyond a 1 1/16?

\"Clearly the horse to beat?\"

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Donut]

mr brown,
can you help me out here sir? can you give me a few notable standouts of the synth/dirt bounce? iwr went synth/dirt won the gotham w a 115 beyer then ran huge in the wood. barbaro went turf/dirt..thats all i can think of off the top of my head.

[alm]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB:
>
> I\'m sure that you realize that every horse
> mentioned in Kerrison\'s article has never won a
> race beyond a 1 1/16?
>
> \"Clearly the horse to beat?\"
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


You\'re not suggesting MMM is a distance-limited horse are you?  Wasn\'t that him coming on  at the end of Derby?

[TGJB]

I\'ll be getting into this in my Preakness comments, which will be in with the data for the day. IWR backed up considerably in the Wood but was able to win anyway.

[TGJB]

The questions are a) why was AK more likely than the other turf/synths to like dirt, and b) how would you know he be would be good enough even if he did? As I said to Ray, between surfaces and drugs the randomness quotient in handicapping is getting out of hand.

[mjellish]

Donut.  The two horses you cite.  Barbaro had lots of rest between the FL Derby and his win in the KY Derby.  When he came back in two weeks for the Preakness it was tragic.  IWR also wound up being hurt and it took him a year to come back and he has never been the same since.

If AK wins the Preakness coming off a big forward move first to dirt and two weeks rest, he will be an even bigger bet against in the Belmont.  That was my original post.  If the connections waited for the Belmont and skipped the Preakness, he would be very playable for me in the Belmont.  I am not advocating that they do that, just making the point.  If he beats me in the Preakness I think I can get it back in the Belmont.

[jbelfior]

Alm:

That\'s exactly what I\'m suggesting.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[jack72906]

Pioneer of the Nile.

First time dirt ran a .75(Derby) off of a 3 on the plastic at SA.

He was dreadful in the Preakness and was eased to finish 11th.

[alm]

OK, my eyes could be deceiving me. It wouldn\'t be the first time.

[plasticman]

Jerry,
I prefer things to be a \'guessing game\' because the tougher it is to handicap, the more \'edge\' you can find. I don\'t want every variable to be straightforward, part of this game is to know more than the other guys, if everyone has the same information,it just makes it much tougher to win.

Am i alone on this, or is there something that you\'re saying that i\'m not understanding?

[TGJB]

Complicated is good. Random is bad.

[plasticman]

But doesnt random make it more complicated?