AK a "one time" jump up on dirt?

[Bigredgoer]

When horses that are Synth/Turf  \"jump up\" first time dirt, does anyone have the stats on % that regress next out?  I thought that I had remembered JB discussing this topic at one point.

[Lost Cause]

I am pretty much banking on this happening at pimlico.  The theory is very hit or miss but i\'ll take my chances with AK getting hit hard in the pools

[jbelfior]

I expect 14 in the gate, so value will be there even for the Derby winner.

More of a factor, and I understand that this is a final fig forum, is the fact that this crop has a severe pace weakness.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

Joe

I don\'t understand why but the pace in all three two turn races Derby day was crawling on the clock:

Alw  8.5f\'s  24.26 48.63 113.39  
Derby        23.24 48.63 113.40
MSW  8.5f\'s  24.81 49.30 113.60

Shackleford went quick under pressure in the Florida Derby and maybe his Derby pace wasn\'t all that slow given the other two turners.

Flashpoint is a fast horse-he wasn\'t interested in running that day leaving the gate.Judging from his Keeneland works-he\'s gonna be on his toes and take them as far as he can go in Baltimore.

Dance City we know has some early foot.He broke his maiden on the same day/distance where Soldat earned his big negative slop figure.Dance City was pressing 23.16 46.50 110.98 while Soldat was walking(24+/48+/1:12-don\'t have the exact splits in front of me)Also chased a pretty hot Arkansas Derby pace.

So I think we\'re gonna have a decent pace in Baltimore if those three show up.If I had to guess Dominguez will take Dance City off those two and get a pretty sweet trip worked out from any post.Question for him is getting the 9.5 furlongs.

[miff]

Tough read on Preakness. Except for Flashpoint and to a lesser extent Sway Away, the new shooters are slowish and unaccomplished vs the derby horses going in.

New shooters must also answer distance question.The one time move up theory is just that, a theory, at best, backed by limited unfiltered stats.Some repeat,some don\'t, just slant it to your own bias and take a swing.


Mike

[jbelfior]

Big:

I should clarify. I believe that those you mention can foot early, if asked. This is a crop of 3yos that lack someone who can sustain after setting or sitting just off an above average pace.

As I mentioned in a prior post, I thought that Dance City ran one of the more impressive prep races. I would have thought the same of Sway Away but that wasn\'t to be. That does not make Dance City the Preakness winner, but I agree that the pace in Baltimore will most certainly be livelier.

That will , IMO, have the \"experts\" touting Dialed--In for sure.


Good Luck,
Joe B.