Thoro-Graph figures for 2011 Derby and Oaks cards

[TGAB]

On the ROTW page, the cards with final Thoro-Graph figures for Derby and Oaks day (in that order) are available. Be mindful these are sheets and the file is big, 244 pages.

[Silver Charm]

Not that surprised at that Derby Fig but I didnt really see the bo!

I Bet Out on Captain Candy Man counting on a New Top, Got it and came away with nothing. Tough game sometimes!

Thanks for posting this so quickly. Great work.

[jimbo66]

TGJB/TGAB,

What determines who gets the \"x\" for dead rail?  Looking at your derby figures, i can\'t figure that out.  \"Derby Kitten\" got a 2w/1w trip and got the dead rail.  However, Shackleford got 1w/2w and didn\'t get the X and Twice the Appeal got a 1w/1w and also didn\'t get an X.

[TGJB]

It\'s usually only the second turn and into the stretch, for whatever reason. I use some judgement on the ones that swing out before the end of the turn (like TTA), or go to the rail, and there are no guarantess I get them all right. Keep in mind we round off-- 1-2 comes out 1 the way we do it.

[Caradoc]

Here is a link to the overhead shot of the Derby.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ski5g1n4JNE

Some of these ground measurements around the final turn do not track with the overhead.  For example, these have Nehro and Brilliant Speed in the same path around the final turn (5w).  You sure that is right, given the overhead (Nehro in the blue silks approximately 4th going into the turn, and BS in white about 14th going into the turn, just outside of AK)? Soon after the horses enter the turn, PoF starts to lose position, and everybody moves closer to the rail so that it appears Nehro is much closer to the 3-path through most of the last turn.  The overhead shows BS is outside Nehro at almost every point around that final turn, in some places by more than one path.  Also, I don\'t see where on the overhead that MMM gets to the 5-path on the final turn.  It appears he is sitting in a pocket 3w for the first part of the turn, then at 1:34 he tips out but only to the 4-path for the remainder of the turn.

[TGJB]

Again, keep in mind that what you see on the sheet is rounded off because there is only room for one figure. The actual ground was

AK  4    34
N   5    54
MMM 3    45
BS  23   456

[Caradoc]

So does the first number for each refer to ground for the first turn, and the second set refer to measurements taken at various points around the final turn? E.g., AK was 4 around the first turn, and you measured him at 3 and 4 (rounded up to 4) for the final turn?

[TGJB]

Yes.

[Caradoc]

There\'s only so far these discussions can go so let me state the following and I\'ll leave it at that.

1) For the sake of consistency, why not measure the relative ground of all the horses using the same methodology?  In another words if you are going to measure BS at three points on the final turn, why not measure the other horses we are discussing three times also, at the same points you measure BS?

2) One way to determine ground position (you may find it invalid) is to take three relatively spaced out points on the final turn and measure ground at those points.  So, on the overhead link, it appears the final turn is run from 1:26 through 1:50, give or take.  I measured the relative ground at 1:32, 1:38 and 1:44 for the horses we are discussing as follows:

N: 4.5, 3.5, 3
MMM: 3, 4, 3.5
BS: 5, 6, 4.5

People can review the overhead and make their own judgments.  Reasonable people can argue about relative ground position at the margins.  But I don\'t see any reasonable basis for the position that either Nehro or MMM was on average 5w around the final turn, even allowing for rounding up.

[mlnolan00]

JB--does a dead rail typically encompass the entire circumference of the track or can it occur as an individual event on either the frontside, backside, clubhouse turn, or far turn?  More specifically, can the rail be dead be in only certain areas of the track or is it typically consistent throughout?
Also, sometimes you mark the dead rail \"X\" before the fig and sometimes after...can you please explain the difference?

[TGJB]

The dead rail does not have to be around the entire track and seldom is. The placement of the X has to do with the placement of the number and where the room is next to it-- with lower numbers the room is to the right.

I just want to say I agree completely with Jimbo about the dead rail being a disgrace. I\'m sure we could come up with some comparable hypotheticals for other sports-- would it be acceptable to have championships literally not on a level playing field?

Pdub-- the point about the dead rail at BC is that because of it, we\'ll never know whether the other things you say about QR were relevant or not. And Jimbo\'s point about the randomness that generates is dead on-- I pushed Big Drama like crazy, but by race time was left to guess a) whether the jock had figured out the rail was dead, and b) whether he could do anything about it. If I wanted to play guessing games I could save a lot of time I spend handicapping and preparing a seminar.

[JimP]

Comparable hypothetical in another sport: Watering down the basepaths just before the visiting team comes to bat each inning in baseball. Unthinkable in baseball.

[Rich Curtis]

If it was unthinkable, then you can be sure Alvin Dark thought of it and tried to do something very much like it to slow down Maury Wills.

Also: In his original indictment of synthetic surfaces, Andy Beyer complained that they might eliminate the biases that are such an important part of handicapping.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Pdub-- the point about the dead rail at BC is that
> because of it, we\'ll never know whether the other
> things you say about QR were relevant or not. And
> Jimbo\'s point about the randomness that generates
> is dead on-- I pushed Big Drama like crazy, but by
> race time was left to guess a) whether the jock
> had figured out the rail was dead, and b) whether
> he could do anything about it. If I wanted to play
> guessing games I could save a lot of time I spend
> handicapping and preparing a seminar.


Fair enough JB.

I took exception to the dumb comment. I thought my other points were valid, the rail being dead made it difficult to show just how much the other points played a part.

Despite the rail, just looking at the 2 sheets, I felt Big Drama was a much stronger play just going off of the pattern and the way they were coming into the race.

Jimbo was dead on with his assessment of the track condition. Thanks for the reply.