Thoughts from the Churchill backstretch

[covelj70]

I have had the awesome opportunity to spend the last 2 days on the backstretch at Churchill.

Weather yesterday was awesome, today was terrible but it did stop raining long enough during the 8:30-8:45 window when the Derby horses are allowed to train without any other horses on the track that we could watch that session without getting soaked.

These thoughts are just random and free form, not organized in any order of importance or anything like that.

As always, a note of caution NOT to place too much importance on any of these comments.  First of all, its easy to be wrong about physical observations of a horse.  Second, things change alot from day to day with horses.  Best example of this is Ice Box from last year.  The horse looked like a cripple the day before the derby but there was some completely legal and permitted vet work done on the horse right before the Derby and he ran great obviously.

That said, my time spent on the back stretch has helped rule some out over the years that I would have otherwise considered using.  Friesian Fire is one that comes to mind.  I had seem him in the paddock of the Louisiana Derby earlier in the year and he was carrying his weight well and had a ton of energy.  Then I saw him training during derby week and he was all \"tucked up\" (i.e. had lost alot of weight) and didn\'t have any energy at all.  That allowed me to throw out what wound up being the favorite with alot of confidence (and I still lost a ton of money on that race because I am an idiot and I didn\'t include Calvin on my ticket).

So, that said, let\'s start with Calvin\'s mount.  I would never use this horse if Calvin weren\'t in the irons but I am going to use him now.  His breeze was exactly what they wanted yesterday.  Much more importantly, one of the leading trainers that I was standing with yesterday watching the works told me he had walked the track the day before and that the area down by the rail (and he explained he meant right next to the rail close enough to touch) is so much harder and firmer than the rest of the track. That\'s what is meant by a \"live rail\" Whoever has the guts to be down there has a HUGE advantage (assuming the track stays the same for the rest of this week which is may not with all of this rain).  By this trainers estimation, being on that rail is worth 5-6 lengths BEFORE taking ground loss into consideration.  It\'s not a mystery why Calvin has won all of these races and I will be using Twice the Appeal as a result.

Other track observations is that yesterday before all the rain, the track was very loose and tiring.  You saw alot of the derby workers come home alot slower than they went out and then tire after the wire with bad gallop outs. Everyone on the backside agreed that last night\'s card would play to closers given how loose and tiring the track was in the morning (I didn\'t play last night but I looked at the charts and that\'s what happened).  If it dries out by derby day (which it should based on the forecast, I would look for mid pack and closing types based on how loose and tiring this thing is.  Could always change during the week and maybe they make it rock hard for derby day but it\'s something to keep an eye on.

The other issue with the track being loose and tiring is that I think not having a breeze over this track before the Derby/Oaks is a HUGE disadvantage.  This track is playing much much looser and tougher than most tracks.  I think Dialed in and Soldat and Zazu are in trouble for not having a breeze over this track, especially Zazu who hasn\'t run in 2 months.  There\'s no way she\'s going to get this distance, on this surface, coming from the back of the pack without having a breeze over it.  She will not my anywhere on my ticket.

In terms of observations on the horses themselves, there were only a few real standouts in either direction for me. It\'s still early in the week and I haven\'t seen them all train but the 3 I will definitely rule out are Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and Stay Thirsty.  Mucho is a very light framed horse, not the big robust type that you need to survive getting bounced around in the Derby.  He\'s not holding alot of weight and he had to be whipped three times at the wire yesterday in his breeze.  Just not what you are looking for in a derby winner.  I know how good his pattern is but he doesn\'t look like a horse to me that\'s ready to run back to a \"0\".  I would be really surprised if he hits the board. Santiva doesn\'t look like a happy horse at all, he\'s not striding out and doesn\'t have a ton of energy.  Stay Thirsty just doesn\'t look like a derby winner to me.  Smaller horse, not big and robust like we like to see, has just trained ok, Couldn\'t keep up with Uncle Mo in the latter stages of the gallop out today. He doesn\'t look like a derby winner.

In terms of Uncle Mo, he looks fine, not great, not terrible.  He\'s a light framed horse as well.  Not like MMM but not big and robust like I like to see either.  He breezed well, galloped out well.  Not like a superstar or anything but can\'t rule him out off the breeze.  He\'s the tough one in here for me.  I can\'t throw him out but for alot of reasons, I can\'t like him too much either distance, pattern, missed time, etc).

The two colts that have made the strongest impression are Brilliant Speed and Archarcharch.  I know it\'s easy to dismiss BS as a turf horse and I fell into the same trap last year with how well Stately Victor looked and was training but Brilliant Speed is a great looking horse who is training with a ton of energy.  Hard for me to throw him off the tickets.  The other one is Archarcharch.  He is built like a sherman tank.  Not that tall but man is he broad.  He is built more like a sprinter than a classic two turn horse but he got the mile and and eigth well enough and the pedigree says he\'s ok for the distance.  I actually went to the farm where his half brother yearling by Silver Train is boarded and you can see the big bone runs in the family.  The yearling is a May foal and he\'s robust as well.  Arch\'s breeze was great and he went back to the track the day after the breeze just to prance around and then today he jogged but it was damm near a gallop which was impressive for how fast he worked 2 days ago.  He looks every bit of a derby winner to me.  He is most certainly not training like he will bounce and the track may well be playing to his exact running style.  Pending the post draw, he\'s my top pick.

The only oaks filly that has really made a big impression on my one way or the other is Joyful Victory.  She is also an extremeley light framed filly who doesn\'t carry alot of weight at all but that\'s how she\'s always been and man o man does she train with alot of energy.  Her gallop out today after her fast breeze was great.  R HEat Lightining breezed fine yesterday but she doesn\'t look anywhere near as good over the track as JV.  Those two are very clear standouts to me in this Oaks field.  Maybe one of them gets beat but I don\'t see them both getting beat and I really don\'t like Zazu at all so I think it\'s those 2 and then everyone else in the Oaks.

Hope these thoughts are useful for everyone.  Good luck this week

[drbillym]

Thank you for some great info-better than Bruno.  Did you see Animal Kingdom work?

[number5858]

Jim,


Thank you so much for sharing. It is wonderful to feel like we are there standing beside you. Best of luck to you this week and always.

[Silver Charm]

Jim thanks!

I thought Jon Court rode with confidence last nite. Like he is on his toes for this week for a reason.

My concern is can his horse run a little inside. I know hw can fire on the outside but ground loss can kill him.

[alm]

Thanks for the insight and keep it coming...however, betting Calvin because of what he\'s done in the past doesn\'t work for me...he did it with 2 very sharp horses and 1 that wasn\'t great, but very good (MTB\'s Preakness proved in retrospect that he was a quality horse at-that-time.)

His mount this year is probably not in their class; it remains to be seen whether or not he can even get this horse to the rail, much less take advantage of a fast rail if it even comes up that way.  I\'m betting NOT POSSIBLE with this one.

[jack72906]

Jim,

Thanks for the excellent insight. It looks like rain the next few days and possibly clearing Wednesday and Thursday. Do you think this will have a significant impact on ground along the rail or is the more solid inside track because of how it\'s maintained?

[bstaubs22]

\"He became more of a professional when we started to run him in route races, because of the potential he had shown, he was pointed to the Sunland Derby.\"

This is a quote from Bonde after the Sunland Derby. You would not think long with Successful appeal on top, but the horse has only been past 1 1/16 twice. Right now I\'m not thinking of him for my top pick, but leave him out at your own discretion. After covelj\'s report, I feel better about having him in the 2,3,4 spot.

[sekrah]

Toss for me.   Not that I picked him at the time, but Mine That Bird has MUCH more of a 2 year old base and exploding pattern into the derby was much more ripe to make a big move forward off his 8-5.   TTA\'s 11-7-3 shows he\'s already done alot of developing.   Maybe he can pair the 3 and get a dream trip and fill out the Super High 5.  I\'m not betting on it though.  Looks like a bounce to me.

[bstaubs22]

I definitely understand your view. I guess for me I\'m banking on the fact that the numbers are getting better because the distances are finally to his liking.

[TreadHead]

thx for sharing the info, very helpful.

I found the comments about the rail interesting, sounded exactly like what we heard on the day MTB won about the rail being tons better than the rest of the track, and obviously that appeared to be the case then.  But there was a lot more water on the track that day and conditions were different than they were last night or are projected to be this coming Sat I think.

Last night, most of those closing victories were made by horses way on the outside catching loose on the lead type who were down by the rail.  Now maybe they weren\'t so close to the rail they could touch it, would have to go back and re-watch.  

I know I thought I was home free with Domnius in the stretch and had him working in rolling pick 3s that would have been very nice, but when he got caught it was like a kick to the gut.

[toppled]

I\'m not too worried about ground loss with AAA, because he\'s not one of these dead closers like Dialed In, who is always at or near the back of the pack.  I expect him to be sitting in the 2nd tier of horses down the backstretch.  Looking at the Ark. Derby, I think it was the outside post that caused him to take back.  Outside of is first start & the Ark Derby, in his other 4 races, he\'s never been more than 3 lengths off the leader at the 1st call.  Even in the Ark, he was only 3.5 lengths back at the 2nd call.  I\'m going to have a piece of him on Derby day & if he\'s not in the lead at the top of the stretch, I\'m going to consider myself in big trouble.

[covelj70]

DB, I didn\'t see the Animal Kingdom work itself but I have seen him on the track.

He definitely moves better over the synthetic than he does over the dirt but he doesn\'t move poorly over the dirt either.  

I think I will play against him but that\'s more because of his figures/pattern/expected ground loss than it is the fact that I think he\'s a poly horse only based on how he moves.

I won\'t likely use him but I won\'t feel completely confident throwing him out

[pres711]

thanks for the insights, great job.  I have been worried that the lack of a work over the track would be a big neg for soldat, so     your report was most helpful.  I am committed to aaa and bs in my boxes, still trying to finalize a key. thanks for the helpful insights, may they all come home safely.

[Ill-bred]

According to Churchill Media, AK\'s splits were:

12-2
12-2
12-2
12
23-4

Gallop out in 1:26-2. (!)

Albarado progressively asked him from the 3/16 pole home. I\'m guessing it barely qualified as a (breeze). AK put about 6 lengths between himself and the workmate Meistersinger from the eighth pole to the wire.

I was standing by where they galloped out. Not sure how they grade breathing, but on a 1-5 loudness scale, I\'d say Meister was breathing at a 4 and AK a 2.

[sekrah]

I don\'t think I\'ve ever had this much anxiety about a post position draw, EVER.  Likely because I\'ve never felt this confident about a Derby longshot as I have in a long time (and no, It\'s not one I\'ve been talking much about at all)   Wednesday cannot get here soon enough.