JB - How would you have analyzed Cappuchino before the Cal Derby?

[goofything]

Cappachino posed an interesting analysis going into the Cal Derby (the last race). The horse made a big move and then a hideous bounce. How would you have analyzed the next race (i.e. the last one ran, the one right after the huge bounce). I know it\'s post-mortum, but interesting none-the-less.

The horse ran a good race. Is that to be expected given the solid line prior to the big new top and awful bounce. I would have thought maybe another bad race or so. Or was the bounce such a bad race that it probably wasn\'t much effort. I\'ve always thought to consider every race an effort, regardless of whether the number looks like a stroll in the park or not. So with the huge new top, maybe the horse would be wiped out for longer than just one race.

Any thoughts group?