This year's 3 year old crop and the steroid issue

[covelj70]

I just was forwarded an interesting article by a friend who\'s a knowledgeable horseplayer.

The article raised the issue that this is only the 2nd crop of 3 year olds to come along that have never raced on steroids since the ban was was put in place in 2009.  

Now, I know we are all skeptical and paranoid about some trainers that are cheating anyway but isn\'t it at least worth considering that one of the reasons that this crop is so \"slow\" compared to previous crops is the lack of legal drugs?

Same deal with Super Saver winning the Derby last year with a higher number than we were used to seeing Derby runners win the last 5 years or so.

If this is true, we may just need to get used to horses winning the derby with 2\'s and 3\'s like they did 15 years ago (look at the archives) instead of 2 negatives.

just a thought

[TGJB]

This year\'s crop wasn\'t so slow last year as 2yos. To say the least.

But yes, it\'s something to watch.

[covelj70]

the fact that they ran well as 2 year olds but NONE of them stayed on to make the natural progression as 3 year olds that you would expect may actually lend credence to the argument.

If you are using, then you can recover from the big efforts quicker and they don\'t take as much out of you.

If you aren\'t using, then the big efforts can knock you out.

time will tell but if we are sitting around this time next year complaining about a group of \"slow\" 3 year olds again, let\'s remember that this is part of the issue.

[plasticman]

I don\'t remember this many horses falling by the wayside with injures knocking them off the trail. I dont have any scientific proof, but doesnt it seem like quite a few are biting the dust (with more to come)?

Good point Cov about the steroids, its really cutting edge thinking to factor stuff like this into analysis.

Maybe the horses arent necessarily slower this year, but they seem REALLY inconsistent. You have horses like Mucho Macho Man running lights out in the pre-La Derby prep and now he\'s fallen off the map. You can say this about a few others too, one race Soldat is fantastic and the next race he\'s nowhere.

This is certainly a different game than what we saw in the 1970s and 1980s.

[number5858]

plasticman Wrote:
...
You have
> horses like Mucho Macho Man running lights out in
> the pre-La Derby prep and now he\'s fallen off the
> map...

I don\'t quite see it that way for MMM. He lost a shoe at the start of the La Derby and has been training very well since by all the accounts I have read. I will wait for the final work and PP draw, but seems to have some potential there.

[Beginner]

Interesting thesis.  Based on that, MMM just got a lot more interesting to me.  He has that big one back at AQU as a 2 year old and 6 weeks going into the Derby...Anyone know if Katherine Ritvo has a broken leg and is planning to drive cross country?

[RICH]

Anyone have an idea, how many lengths a lost shoe at the start can cost a horse?

[magicnight]

That depends upon how much time the horse spends looking for it.

[P-Dub]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That depends upon how much time the horse spends
> looking for it.


It won\'t cost a colt much.

However a filly or mare will take a lot more time.

[johnnyseychelles]

I think the more important question is, \"how much damage was caused to his hoof/foot during the incident.\"  Ritvo has gone to glue ons after the incident.  Usually this is the option used when a horses hoof is too damaged (from cracks) or too brittle to handle traditional nails.  She says they went to them, \"because they stay on.\"  That implies that he has had past problems with his feet and traditional shoes.

I like the horse and definitely like the effort put forth in the LA Dby with 3 shoes.....but VERY worried about current condition.

Big Brown is the only glue on (foot problem horse) I recall running big.

Someone from the old days used to say \"no foot.....no horse\"