Calvin desperate?

[sekrah]

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/p-valenzuela-churchill-downs-usa-p-val-lined-up-for-kentucky-hope-comma/847960/latest/

Jockey plans elsewhere are still up in the air - notably concerning Ballydoyle contender Master Of Hounds.

The agent for Calvin Borel, who has ridden three of the last four Kentucky Derby winners, is on record saying he would be contacting Aidan O\'Brien about the mount.

Oh plleeeeeeease make this happen.   Would love nothing more than to see MoH bet down under 15-1.

[number5858]

calvin worked Stay Thirsty, so that is a possibility

[Ill-bred]

Do Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty run coupled in the Derby?

[Dana666]

I wonder when people will stop talking about him. He had his moments of incredible luck over the last few years. Absolutely random, freaky luck--the kind you have once in a lifetime if the stars are aligned properly. He might never finish in the money in the Derby the rest of his career.

[plasticman]

No, there\'s no couplings no matter what. 20 unique betting interests.

[TGJB]

Yeah, he was very lucky to find a way to be 1w1w all three times he won. That\'s an edge of at least 4 lengths on the average Derby starter in EACH race.

[sekrah]

Yes, very lucky that he knows Churchill about as well as anyone, and very lucky that he\'s the only jockey with stones to get right on top of the rail.

:-/.

I\'m wondering when people will get over the fact that they blew last years Derby silver platter opportunity.  (i.e. a very competitive TG fig/pattern that was guaranteed[/u] to be 1w1w).

[mjellish]

I can\'t even guarantee that my wife will still love me tomorrow.  No way you can ever guarantee a horse will get a 1w 1w trip.  But yes, after SS drew the 4 post you could figure if he broke well and with Borel on him he would have as good or better of a chance as anyone to save ground.  But if the rail had been poor, which is how it was playing until late in the day, that wouldn\'t have helped him.

[sekrah]

Michael.. dead rail that day?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l20r2GgSeoY

Please.   I escalated my Derby straight win bets based on this \"dead rail\".

[sekrah]

And you can\'t say, \"which is how it was playing until late in the day\"..  Borel did the same exact thing with Zimmer in the 2nd race.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tWKUs8329o&feature=fvwrel

Let me guess, it was dead between races 3 thru 8 right?

[big18741]

Add in the 1w1w ride on Denis of Cork in 2008 to get into the tri.

[Rick B.]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wonder when people will stop talking about him.
> He had his moments of incredible luck over the
> last few years. Absolutely random, freaky
> luck--the kind you have once in a lifetime if the
> stars are aligned properly. He might never finish
> in the money in the Derby the rest of his career.

I know it\'s Easter...but this is one of the more ignorant and ill-informed posts I\'ve ever seen on a horse racing forum. I simply can\'t hold back.
 
Dana, I challenge you (or anyone else) to come up with another jock that consistently finds and uses the best part of the racetrack like Borel does.

Borel\'s nickname, \"Bo-Rail\", is cute but misleading -- he\'s not some crazed kamikaze that has to scrape the paint off the rail in order to win a race once a week or so. He wins from all over the track, but if there is a rail or path bias, he\'ll find it and put all his horses there before half of the rest of the jockeys even know wtf is going on. That is the result of paying attention and being in touch with what is going on with the racing surface.

Finally, your \"freaky luck\" comment is what I find most absurd. For the five year period ending 12/31/2010, Borel tallied $37.6 million in earnings from just under 4500 mounts; remove the earnings from the three Derby wins, and Borel still shows some pretty damn lofty numbers. What, he won millions of dollars in earnings via smart, competitive race-riding for all those years...but then got bullshit lucky on Derby days only? Dana -- does that make ANY sense at all??

If you don\'t like the guy, say so -- nothing wrong with that. Just don\'t continue to trivialize Borel\'s three winning Derby rides...at least, not if you want to be taken seriously around here.

[mjellish]

No Sek.  That\'s not what I am saying.  My main point was that you cannot GUARANTEE a 1w 1w trip ever, for any horse.  Even if they run by themselves around the track.  A ground saving trip is either likely or not, or more likely or very unlikely, but it is never guaranteed.  That\'s all I was saying.

But for what its worth, I was at the Churchill last year for Oaks and Derby day.  The rail was more or less dead both days.  And on Derby day the weather was rainy and windy, off and on, all day and the way they groomed the track between races changed off and on all day, which really messes with the varients and the way the track plays.  They were sealling it, then a few races later they harrowed it, then they started sealing it again.  They went back and forth all day because you just couldn\'t tell what the weather was going to do.  About 40 minutes before the Derby it quit raining and the sun came out for the first time all day.  And most importantly, through all of that, there is an area of tightly packed dirt left right down, and I mean RIGHT down, by the rail from the maintenance equipment because the harrower doesn\'t get in that far.  Go to Churchill sometime on a sloppy race day.  You can actually see it.  And that is where Calvin, and for the most part ONLY Calvin, often tries to ride.  He rides closer to the rail than any other jockey I\'ve ever seen.  And this is important because if you go out 1 foot from there it is a completely different track.  Ever notice how Calvin, when he\'s down on the rail in the stretch at Churchill, is still all right hand with the whip?  If his horse moves away from the whip he wants it to go closer to the rail, not away from it, because the track there is different.

There are weird things like this at some tracks.  The old Keenland used to get it\'s \"Golden Rail\" in part because of the way the shadows fall on the track, which keeps more moisture in that part of the track.  I\'ve seen Belmont get a pretty deep tire rut from the tractor as well.  In fact, I remember one Breeders Cup, can\'t remember the year but I know Cigar was running, when any horse that got in that tire rut and stayed there had a huge edge.    

So yes, I am saying that the track changed during the races.  Happens all the time.  If you try to make your own figures for any length of time you will see this, which is why sometimes you can\'t come up with a consistent varient and also why it\'s important to go off the horses and make projections.  If you don\'t do it that way and just go off the raw times you get some really wacky numbers.

[rob]

\" He might never finish in the money in the derby for the rest of his career \"

   
  With all due respect that\'s a ridiculous statement.

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Sek.  That\'s not what I am saying.  My main
> point was that you cannot GUARANTEE a 1w 1w trip
> ever, for any horse.  Even if they run by
> themselves around the track.  A ground saving trip
> is either likely or not, or more likely or very
> unlikely, but it is never guaranteed.  That\'s all
> I was saying.

He was 95%+.  Barring a stumble or being squeezed (He had a substantial edge in gate speed on #1 LAL, #2 Ice Box, #3 Noble\'s P).  Super Saver getting a 1w in that first turn was nearly a lock of the century.  Give me a top 5 figure/pattern horse and there\'s a 95% chance he\'s catching a 1w1w, only a fool tosses him.



> So yes, I am saying that the track changed during
> the races.  Happens all the time.  If you try to
> make your own figures for any length of time you
> will see this, which is why sometimes you can\'t
> come up with a consistent varient and also why
> it\'s important to go off the horses and make
> projections.  If you don\'t do it that way and just
> go off the raw times you get some really wacky
> numbers.


Okay your changing your story from your first post.  You said it was dead until late in the day.  Clearly it was not.  Now you claim it was fluctuating back and forrth.   I\'ll concur that there are changes to a track throughout the day, but you really have absolutely no idea how to quantify it as far as path bias goes.   What\'s your evidence?    You see a favorite that figures to be the best in the race in a decent spot on the rail and he doesn\'t fire in the stretch, you automatically assume the rail must have been dead?   This is nonsense.  It was ONE RACE.  It is far, far more likely the horse wasn\'t in the same condition today as he had in the past.

The facts are you\'ll never have enough of a sample to determine the true path bias changes throughout the day.   Looking at 2 or 3 races in a row where the favorite didn\'t win on the rail is about as flimsy as it gets.  Whoops.. A 10-1 won on the rail the next race, the track maintenance MUST have did something differently right?  

Ridiculous.   I love watching the two Mountaineer handicappers make fools of themselves chasing these perceived biases with their small samples of evidence.   They\'ll declare a bias after the 2nd race \"The front runners hit a wall there\" then pick closers next 3 races and then watch the speed win, then they move back to the speed and a closer finishes up the day.  They are ALWAYS hunting for these magical biases and the vast majority of the time the track was playing perfectly fair throughout the day.

You are the guys in Vegas who see that the roulette wheel landed on red 13 of the last 15 spins so you think \"Red Is Hot\".