Santa Anita Derby

[Dana666]

The scratches have reduced this race to something on the level of an allowance-
type affair. Not thinking there are any KY Derby types in here either Just a few thoughts:

1-Offlee Wild Boys: Really improved for Miyadi; that being said this race looks like a stretch. I Can\'t get too excited about his chances, really.

2-Indian Winter: I really like this horse, and I also have no idea what happened out in AZ. When I get to the track, I will check the T-G sheets. I suspect he may have bounced badly in which case he might be worth a look to rebound. Not impossible.

3-Mr. Commons: They\'re asking a lot of this guy. He\'s a bit green still and one-paced too. Nice looker though. Some mixed feelings as to whether he has any shot in here. A big maybe.

4-Silver Medallion: I suppose he\'s worth a look though his lack of dirt experience is a big question for me. He is athletic though. You could easily make a case for him.

5-Comma to the top: Only an inside super speed bias can get this guy home. I think he has limitations at this distance. They WILL be sending in this pace-less field! If you saw the way he completely fell apart in his last race you wouldn\'t get too high on him though.

6-Midnight Interlude: Key to the race b/c if he goes with \'Comma\', the closers chances increase. Bejarano usually grabs, so I\'m not sure what\'s going to happen. He\'s talented, but this is a huge jump for him, too.

7-Quail Hill: Has had many chances and usually only puts in a ploddy late run. That being said, maybe if the pace melts down...I just can\'t get too excited over him.

9-Anthony\'s Cross: You\'d think this talented guy stands out here with the defections of the other big guns. He should get a great trip too! Harty just stinks though. I have no confidence he can get a horse ready to fire off a layoff either. Very tough call. By all rights should jog here. If you can bet Harty with any confidence, you are a braver man than I. He\'ll be the deserving favorite though.

10-Bench Points: Perhaps he\'s coming up to his best race 3rd off the layoff. His first route try was nothing to write home about. Not sure really.

Well as you can see this is a lackluster race!

9-Anthony\'s Cross is probably the most talented. He will be the fav. for a bad trainer in these spots. Your call boys.
2-Indian Winter: Could be an interesting long-shot. I think he has some ability. The price will be right too.
4-Silver Medallion: Certainly deserves a long look, likely second choice, right?

Can\'t really get too excited over the others. As always good luck to all.

In the Providencia, I liked So Belle\'s initial US race as a prep for this; she might have a touch of class!  Wave of Appplause also strikes me as a quality runner. Cambina didn\'t beat much in my estimation and the extra distance is not necessarily a plus. Whisper Louise looks classy to me -- she is worth a look on the track, but she will be last early will have to pass them all. I loved Wallstreeter last time out, but think I will give up on her finally, no excuse except maybe Harty didn\'t have her ready off the layoff!  Bonita\'s star\'s late run was not as good as it looked and the extra 1/8 won\'t help her either. I really think Wave and So Belle stick out here. If they don\'t kill each other early they should run 1-2. I will load up in this race and bet little in the SA Derby.

[TGJB]

Explain why you formed opinions on the race BEFORE you looked at the TG data. Then explain why you posted it on a TG board.

[Dana666]

B/c I like to do my own work first and then compare it with the sheets last. Then I see whether I see any of the same things in the sheets. If I do, I can reinforce my opinions or adjust them or pass on races. I\'ve always done that. It is a fact that your brain puts the most emphasis on the last information you view, so I don\'t like to over study the sheets too early, then I get confused. I always like it when the numbers validate what I think I\'m seeing -- if they don\'t I pass on such races.

[sekrah]

I\'ll take Mr. Commons to explode off those pair 6\'s Jerry.

[Dana666]

The workout clockers all LOVE him.

[Lost Cause]

I like Indian winter also Dana.  He beat Jaycito in his debut, then came back to run a troubled-trip third to JP\'s gusto and Jaycito in the Norfolk.  He came back in in a sprint and he ran well to win and improve 5 points off his 2 yr old form, that number pretty much beats most in this race and is slightly off the top number in the race.  I also don\'t have a clue what happened in the TuP race but the line shows he was fractious at the gate and Rank so I don\'t think it was the distance that did it to him.  Willing to throw out the last and hope he improves slightly off his 3yr old debut number.  Hollendorfer 26 % off the layoff and I might get 6/1

[sekrah]

Just got a call from my buddy at SA.  He says there\'s some buzz in the barns that Jaycito is fine and the scratch was to open the door for Midnight Interlude (who has been training like a monster) to grab the payday because Baffert thinks he\'s the best shot he has at 1 1/4.

Take it FWIW.

[Dana666]

Wow! Hope you bet!

[sekrah]

I think we just seen the Kentucky Derby winner.

[sekrah]

Yea.  Got the triple wrangled in pretty good.   Shocked it was that much.

[ROBERT49]

you gotta be kidding about MI winning the KD. no races at 2 and his first race this year on Jan 29. I\'m looking elsewhere.

[Lost Cause]

aww crap!!!
I didn\'t look back at the site until now.. Hope you played him.
Mine was as rank as you can get.  Knew I was dead when they passed the finish line the first time.

I agree with your other post.  He looked better than many of the derby horses remaining on the trail.  This has to be the most open Derby I\'ve ever seen.  Can anyone say who the fave will be?  I\'m hoping it\'s Covello after next week\'s race..

[sekrah]

BTW, Midnight Interlude was 4w3w, came home in 12.2.   CTTT was 1w1w.

[jbelfior]

Yeah, sure we did!

Talk about getting caught up in the moment.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

Certainly much the best in this race, given the wide trip and the fact that he had to avoid Comma in the stretch.  But, the first seven finishers being less then 6 lengths apart (especially this bunch) makes one wonder about the quality.