Question for the board on Soldat

covelj70 · March 09, 2011, 05:15:29 AM

what kind of number do people want to see Soldat run in the Florida Derby?

He had a big figure (best 3 year old so far this year going 2 turns I believe) in the allowance win in the slop (which I know some will discount ala War Pass\'big slop TG figure in the breeders cup) and he followed that with a bounce but not a terrible bounce in the Fountain of Youth. His FOY figure is still one of the better figures that any 2 turn 3 year old has run this year even with the bounce.

So, what kind of number would people want to see in the Florida Derby to feel good about playing this guy in the Kentucky Derby?

Obviously if he pairs the FOY figure, that would be nice as one could argue he could go back to the big figure in the KY Derby. On the other hand, if the only time he has run fast enough heading into the Derby to win was in the slop, how good can we feel about that?

But, what if he either goes backward again in the Florida Derby in which case he would be 0-2-x heading into the Derby or he runs back to the negative figure in the Florida Derby in which case you could go either way by arguing that he got back to the top quickly which is a good sign of health or that he bounced off the negative figure before and that he will do it again?

He\'s a tough one for me to figure at this point (as I am proving in this rambling diatribe) because no matter what he runs in the Florida Derby, you could make the case for or against him using the sheets for the Derby.

Thoughts?

miff · March 09, 2011, 06:53:12 AM

Cov,

Because Soldat\'s neg fig was on a wet track, I would not necessarily read his last FOY fig literally, as a bounce.His FOY may be more indicative of his present ability on a dry surface. Which way he will go is subject to opinion.I would be more concerned that his FOY was under highly favorable conditions(slow pace, speed track,main contender THAS didn\'t run a step)

Given the preps to date, there really isn\'t anyone you can toss or love.I think the next prep for most will be telling.Not in love with Soldat but compared with others, he appears solid right now.If Uncle MO bombs in his preps, it will be a very interesting derby.Hate TAP\'s overly cautious game plan but the horse may be just too talented for this crop.

Good luck

Mike

covelj70 · March 09, 2011, 07:30:03 AM

thanks for the thoughts Mike.

couldn\'t agree more about the odd direction TAP is taking with Uncle Mo.

only having 2 preps is bad enough but having 1 of them be 1 turn is tough, especially for a horse that might have distance limitations.

Will be interesting for sure.

I am still on Honor and Serve but we already killed that one to death on the other thread so I will just wait to watch his next one before I start WW 4 again on that subject!

thanks again for the thoughts

Wrongly · March 09, 2011, 08:59:37 AM

Jim

I wouldn\'t worry too much about the two preps. I\'m a bit surprised that more trainers haven\'t gone that direction. Good example is a TG fav VG. Sure, Victory Gallop didn\'t win the derby but he certainly ran well enough to make others try the derby 3rd off the layoff. Maybe people didn\'t know how good he was as a 2-year, especially how good his race on opening day at Colonial was running against a bias. Heck I wouldn\'t be that surprised if they had tried Uncle Mo with only one prep race.

TGJB · March 09, 2011, 10:06:17 AM

Those who think two preps is a bad idea might want to go back and look at the stats we presented in last year\'s Derby seminar.

covelj70 · March 09, 2011, 10:55:51 AM

two preps is one thing, having one of them be a one turn job is another.

esepcially for a horse where the pedigree says distance could be an issue and who didn\'t have a rigourous two year old campaign.

It\'s gonna be hard to feel good about Uncle Mo\'s chances if he wins the Florida Derby but staggers home the final eighth in 13 and change.

All of this said, I already feel like I did when I was artificially creating reasons to play against Big Brown which I sadly did in very loud and unsuccessful fashion.

If Uncle Mo pops a 3 negative in the Florida Derby like BB did, I might not be as vocal as I was against Big Brown!

TGJB · March 09, 2011, 11:06:49 AM

I think there was a horse last year that ran a neg 3 in his final prep, and two the year before that ran the same in their penultimate ones. Funny thing is I don\'t remember them running in the Derby itself...

It\'s early March, guys. You got fever, take an aspirin.

Silver Charm · March 09, 2011, 03:44:28 PM

Uncle Mo is pointing for the Wood not the Fla Derby but I get your point. I dont know what Soldat will run in his next race. Not only is it a long ways to Ky Derby Day but anything can happen between now and Fla Derby Day. Soldat will tough on Fla Derby Day. Be careful questioning his distance capabilities.

Footlick · March 09, 2011, 08:04:38 PM

I have no problem with two preps if a horse has sufficient two year old seasoning. Or if the Derby is your only target. But if you want your horse to run in all TC races, then you need seasoning, and a light two year old schedule and a light three year old prep doesn\'t give you that, IMO. Put that with stretching the distance limitations of many of these horses and you get horses who end up out for the rest of the year or sour after the TC.