The "Golden Preakness Pattern"

[derby1592]

How strong was Funny Cide\'s line heading into the Preakness?

That is a question that came up in some pre-Preakness discussions that I had with a few others who often post on this board. I had pointed out that I thought Funny Cide had a very strong forging line after seeing his Derby figure. He had never gone back and still had only improved a few points over his 2yo top. A line that I thought could very well lead to a new top in the Preakness and a line that I thought was almost ideal for a horse taking a serious run at the Triple Crown.

I was justifiably challenged on this with the main concern being that the short rest between the Derby and Preakness would make it difficult to run a new top after a big Derby effort. I had to admit that was a very valid reason to question my original assertion so I tried to dig up as much relevant information on the topic as I could.

Looking back through old TG sheets, I found 7 Preakness entrants that had run new tops in their final Derby prep and then paired them up in the Derby itself. Five of the 7 improved in the Preakness (average of about 2 pts with a range of 0.5 to 3.5) and 2 paired their tops in the Preakness. None regressed. Also, 4 of the 7 actually won the Preakness (several at generous odds) and the other 3 finished second. Based on this (even given the small sample) and the general overall line I still had to conclude that Funny Cide had a very strong pattern and that he was very likely to pair-up or move forward in the Preakness.

In this case (unfortunately, it does not always happen that way), this conclusion was reinforced by Funny Cide\'s big win.

So in future years keep your eye out for this \"Golden Preakness Pattern\" - A new top in the final Derby prep followed by a pair-up in the Derby itself.

Below is the detailed list of Preakness horses that showed this pattern and how they ran relative to their tops in the Preakness itself.

Cheers

Chris

*************
New top in Final Derby Prep followed by pair-up in Derby – how they did in the Preakness:

Charismatic improved by 1.5
Menifee another pair-up
Real Quiet improved by 2
Free House improved by 0.5
Timber Country improved by 2
Tabasco Cat improved by 3.5
Go For Gin another pair-up



Post Edited (05-20-03 18:14)

[mholbert]

how did these horses do, figure wise, in the belmont?

[derby1592]

I expected that question because that is exactly the question that I asked myself. Unfortunately, I don\'t have the answer. I am assuming that FC ran a big new top in the Preakness so the most interesting question is how did Tabasco Cat, Real Quiet and Charismatic do in the Belmont since those are the three that also jumped off the golden pattern in the Preakness (Timber Country did not run in the Belmont).

Maybe TGJB can answer that one.

I am pretty sure that Tabasco Cat and Real Quiet probably at least paired-up since they both ran big races in the Belmont. Charismatic probably regressed although he did not run that badly despite breaking down at the wire.

You have to figure that FC has a good shot at the Triple Crown. I am guessing that his last was somewhere between -1.5 and -0.5 which means he is fastest going in and still has a fairly solid line and also has history on his \"cide.\" (If he ran an even faster figure in the Preakness, then the line is obviously more suspect but at the same time he could regress and still win). He also has a tactical edge on all the other major contenders in that they will likly have to give ground and pass him in the stretch to win and the Belmont is typically a very tactical race. Finally, you know he can handle an off track and he has already shown an affinity for the Belmont surface and it is his home field.

I don\'t think Funny Cide will be a good bet at the likely odds but I do think he has a pretty good shot at earning a big bonus for his connections.

Either way, it should be a great Belmont and perhaps a historic one and certainly a fun day for racing fans in general.

Cheers.

Chris



Post Edited (05-21-03 00:50)

[Silver Charm]

Chris wrote,

\"Either way, it should be a great Belmont and perhaps a historic one and certainly a fun day for racing fans in general.\"

And a good day to plunge your guts out assuming the weather holds up.

Great work.