Quality Road's Post Position

[P-Dub]

She shouldn\'t be, thats something we all agree on.

But with the hype, unbeaten record, defending champion, last career race, etc.. these situations often lead to an overbet horse despite the large field.  I think she gets huge mutuel support and is below her ML close to even money.

[Wrongly]

She went off at 5/2 last year and the books in England having her dropping now to 2/1.  Can\'t see her going off at anything more than that.

[mjellish]

Alm, I agree with you that this is a patented Johnny V move.  And he\'s done it with this horse a few times.  I may be wrong, but I don\'t think he is going to find that to be such an easy move here, not with Haynesfield and First Dude to his immediate outside.  Neither one of these are need the lead types, so I don\'t think they will come out gunning by default, although Etched probably will.  FD and HF have enough tractable speed to keep QR pinned down on the inside if he doesn\'t go early.  So I am pretty sure if QR breaks clean he comes out trying to clear FD and HF.  He\'s going to have to.  If you trained FD or HF and you knew a dangerous horse like QR had the rail and didn\'t like the inside, what would you tell your jock to do?

This is the BC Classic.  Imagine the adrenaline.  If you were TAP, would you take a chance on getting QR pinned to the inside.

[alm]

You are probably right, but funny things go through jockeys\' minds (do they have minds?)at Churchill and they might not start raceriding right out of the gate...it\'s a long way to go while you\'re looking sideways.  

And while I admit there\'s no telling what has actually been in TAPs mind as he has been training QR, it seems that he has been trying to take the edge off the horse.  All in all, I like Blame the most, but if the worst scenario does not develop for QR, he\'s likely to be extremely dangerous off a good trip.

[miff]

TAP on QR\'s rail draw:

\"That wasn\'t the post position we were hoping for but it\'s probably less of a DISADVANTAGE in a 12 horse field.It\'s a terrible post in the Kentucky Derby\"

Guess TAP does not subscribe to the ground loss, ground loss, ground loss theory in this case.


Mike

[HP]

Miff - I don\'t think has anything to do with ground loss.  He\'s clearly alluding to a 12 horse field vs. a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby.  As in...it\'s more of a disadvantage to be inside 19 other horses as opposed to just 11.  

HP

[mjellish]

Agree completely

[miff]

HP,

Totally agree.JB\'s comments suggest that the rail for QR is not a disadvantage.Can only imagine he feels it\'s ground saving, notwithstanding it appears to be a tactical disadvantage as to the dynamics of this race on paper.

Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- go look up which post has won the most derbies. Hint-- it\'s 1, last time I checked. And if someone has an easy way to check average finish position by post (relative to field size), I would love to see that too.

[miff]

JB,

The winning post position thing is not an issue,the horses talent is. Some horses in post one that lost the derby may have won if posted elsewhere.Check out this year,LAL derby trip from the rail.

Just about anyone who gets paid for managing or understands race dynamics knows that the options that a jockey has in any race out of a chute are far less if rail posted.

The rail is meaningless to a style like Zenyatta, but pretty critical for a style like QR.Why do you think that every year trainers choose the far outside post for the derby rather than the rail.

Mike

[TGJB]

Just about anyone? Really?

[HP]

Present company excepted.  LMAO.  Waiting DECADES now for you to learn.  I put up some horses earlier if you need to refer...    

Good luck tmw!  HP

[miff]

HP,

If you have it handy, please put up the post positions of the derby winners for the past 22 years.How many were from post 1, I forgot.

The poison rail ties tightly into the introduction of the auxiliary gate which causes the first 3 slotted horses to angle off at the gap to avoid hitting the rail. I\'m sure you and JB knew that already.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Spot on Mike, although the inside four posts are affected.  The chute bends like an old paper clip and if all the horses ran in a straight line, at a similar rate of speed, the rail horse is driven into the fence or has to check sharply, or both.

TAP can say what he wants, and has left it up to the boy but you can bet that if Quality Road breaks well, a big if, JV will send. bbb

[HP]

Miff - Lighten up.  I\'m joking.  Whatever you say is right.  Good luck!  HP