Is there anyone on this board that thinks Zenaytta will win the Classic?

[covelj70]

JB,

This thread is the hottest thing in horse racing right now, you kidding me?

I did you a big favor.....LOL

I just did here what I always do with my stock picks when I have a strong view. I want to hear as many smart opinions about the other side of the argument as I can to make sure I am not missing something.

In this case, I really appreciate and respect everyone\'s views but at the end of the day, I am a numbers person and I think making too many adjustments to the numbers (i.e. for horse IQ, early pace, surface changes etc) renders the numbers irrelevant so I am going to go with one of the fast horses in the race (she is not one of them).

Now only if I can figure out which one of those to use.

I am inclined to go with Jimbo and QR.  I don\'t care if he\'s not as good as he was in January (I mean the horse here, not Jimbo), he\'s still the fastest horse in this race and even though he hasn\'t won going this distance, he has run numbers going this distance that will very likely win the race.

As long as Pletcher\'s others aren\'t shooting blanks leading up to the Classic, I am pretty sure he\'s my horse.

[Footlick]

Shoe said many, many times he made sure Forego did not win by much in many of his races to take it easy on him and to try to keep weight off of him in handicaps.  But the track handicapper wasn\'t fooled.  If you think Zenyatta is all out then you\'ll have no problem throwing her out.  As far as Smith hitting her, you interpret it however you want.  He is not whipping the hell out of her.  I\'m not here for confrontation.  That happens in too many other blogs. You interpret however it makes you happy.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Rick,
> >
> > One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is
> > hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.
>
> I agree. Who said otherwise?
>
> I was pretty specific, Paul: I wrote \"the most
> strident\" of Zenyatta\'s backers. I meant that as
> \"a little\".
>
> > How many have stated that they will bet her no
> > matter what the odds are?? Few if any.
>
> Poster Funny Cide implied as much. And a
> well-known west coast workout analyst thought $7
> on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic was a big
> price, so I can safely count him in. Do you know
> for sure I meant more than 2 people?
>
> \"Stick to the facts\", you say. How about sticking
> to what I wrote, not your erroneous interpretation
> of same. Your standard bull rush (as it were) to
> defend all slights towards Smith, Zenyatta,
> Shirreffs, et. al., whether real or imagined, is
> tiresome; why not give it a rest?


Erroneous interpretations??  

-I haven\'t written anything about Zenyatta or Snith in quite awhile. Standard bullrush??  Whatever. A bit erroneous to say standard bullrush. You write non-stop about Zenyatta, Smith, the connections....all with the same point of view. You want to talk about tired??  Give me a break pal.

- The most strident of backers.  So you\'re saying , what Rick, there are only 2 of those??  The most popular horse on the planet, and she has a couple of \"strident supporters\"?? Sure Rick, you were just referring to a couple people.

You seem a bit sensitive. Or does having the same undefeated horse slap you around at the mutuel windows contribute to you bitter attitude?? Can\'t blame you for that. Only the most strident of her detractors have had that happen to them. Maybe race 20 will be your race to get it all back.

Good luck with that.

[alm]

You\'re kidding me right?  Eight shots with the whip in a little over an 1/8th of a mile and there\'s more than one way to interpret that? She ran her best race that day, my friend...that was her best race.  It may be good enough to win next week...I hope so...it will make for a great story, but I participate in this blog as a reality check on what I think.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,

The thing the Classic taught me is this mare encountered a fair amount of traffic at the head of the stretch, was able to veer over, get straightened away, regather herself a bit, and win easily with a TON left in the tank. All that during a 990 feet of stretch at Santa Anita.  The fact of the distance not compromising her chances leads me to where I am on the race.  I think we\'ll see 100% of what she has in the tank, no sense sending her to the breeding shed without finding exactly how far and how fast she can run.  We\'ll all know in 10 days if she is good enough.
Good luck

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> 2.  P-Dub didn\'t have a dime on Zenyatta in last
> year\'s Classic.  Next thing you know, he is going
> to say he never bets on Mike Smith because he is
> concerned about the wide trips.  
>
>
> Jim

Jimbo,
Honestly, I didn\'t. I had kool aid instead of a beer.  

Now Smith, had a nice bet on Becrux on the BC 2008 undercard where he, sit down please, comes up the rail to score at 14-1. Never been afraid of betting on Smith.

Love the comment Jimbo, good stuff.

[Footlick]

No, I\'m not kidding. You interpret whatever you want.  If you feel she was all out then you do.  Have a great BC.

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

Appreciate your appreciation of the big mare. You are right, we will have our answer in 10 days.  I do believe she will run her race, you would have to be a fool to think she won\'t run her race.  I believe she is the most consistently fast horse in the last 20 years.  I just don\'t believe she is as fast as the top colts on dirt.  However, I don\'t see her out of the Super, as I will pencil in neagtive 1.5 for her, which will get her 3rd or 4th, with the right trip, and make the Classic a race I can\'t bet vertically, but I will fire all barrels horizontally against her.

She did everything you say she did in last year\'s Classic.  She did it on Pro-Ride against a field that has had one horse come back and win since that race.  It is one of those \"negative key races\" for those that believe in such things .

Best of luck,

Jim

[martoon]

Jim...What did you think of QR\'s last race?  At 1/8th shorter where he looked to be in perfect form going in, that one scares me.  Also since he has such monster numbers by every service don\'t you think he\'s going to get his odds bet down pretty low?  I know a lot of the serious players are high on LAL, but the big group of occasional players that jump in on Cup day I think will be backing him heavily based on speed figures.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
You say, \"

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
You say, \"She did it on Pro Ride against a field that has had one horse come back and win since that race.  It is one of those negative key races for those that believe in those things.\"
What about Gio Ponti\'s 2 wins?  What about Richard\'s Kid? What about Awesome Gem? What about Girolamo? What about the 2 wins by Twice Over?
Off the top of my head, thats 5 different horses that account for at least 7 different wins since the BC Classic in \'09.
Is that still a negative key race when nearly 1/2 of the field has won again?
Or are you just talking about those who came back and won on ProRide, if that is how you sculpt your template?

Funny story here:  Last year we had a really nice 3 year old that ran 3 Grade 1 races at a mile and a quarter.  He cut the following fractions in those races:
23.4/47.1/111.3/136.3/202.4
25.2/50.0/113.1/137.3/202.2
24.3/48.3/112.3/136.2/201.2

For 3 consecutive races he kept getting a little faster at 10 furlongs, based upon the final times, his ability to close and finish was not questioned.

In that 3rd race, at the 1/2 mile pole he was 10 lengths in front of Zenyatta, at the 3/4 mark he was 12 1/2 lengths in front of her, at 1 Mile he was 2 lengths in front of her, at the stretch call he was 1/2 length in front of her, and at the wire he was 3 widening lengths behind her.  Yep, Summer Bird was a nice horse and I don\'t see where he suffered moving from the sloppy tracks at Belmont and Saratoga to the Pro Ride that day.
I wish he had remained healthy, cause he owned QR last year.
Good luck Jimbo

[smalltimer]

Tried to delete this one. sorry

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

Shame on me for quoting an outdated stat. When I read that about 4 months ago, Gio Ponti was the only horse from BC Classic who had come back and won.  Since then, you are correct that Richard\'s Kid, Awesome Gem and Girolamo have won.  

Gio Ponti on turf, Girolamo sprinting, but nonetheless they have won.  My bad.

However, it doesn\'t change my opinion that on Pro-Ride, the field she beat last year was well below par for the race.  Gio Ponti, a turf horse, came 2nd.  

It also doesn\'t change the premise that I really am basing my opinion on, that the Pro-Ride wins for her and anybody else, mean nothing as far as racing at Churchill on dirt.

Jim

[covelj70]

Hey man, thanks for the message.

Good question.

There are 3 things I am keying on with QR

1) He runs his best races off layoffs and he\'s had a freshening coming into this

2) Pletcher is now learning what other great trainers have over the years, that is have his horses ready for to run their big race in THE big race and not be over the top by the time they get there. We all saw Super Saver in the Ark Derby and then in the KY Derby.  QR wasn\'t over the top for the Woodward, I think that\'s a good thing

3) He\'s the fastest horse in the race.  I get anrgy when the fastest one beats me

[Dana666]

I think the better question is how can we as handicappers avoid mixing our egos into our perceptions of her chances? If one loves her or hates her, does one need to be proven correct to have one\'s \"opinion\" validated - either way one camp or the other will be proven \"brilliant\" for their predictions. It is interesting how much ego can trump honest reality and perceptions get real cloudy when handicapping such epic races. I for one know the downside of needing to be right for all the wrong reasons - in the end such hubris kills.

I tried to attach (but I can\'t figure out how?) a so-called Ragozin insider\'s point of view (we have the T-G point of view so I figured let\'s see the other side, too) from The Thoroughbred Times. In short, he doesn\'t think she can do it based on the numbers as there are at least four horses as good as she. I have no prediction that I can stand by except to say that the mere definition of a once in a lifetime champion is he or she reaches down and finds something more in the time of their greatest challenge - the whole is more than the sum of it\'s parts so to speak. That information isn\'t going to found on either a Ragozin or Thorograph Sheet. Why does one player hit three home runs in a world series game and another strike out three times? Some athletes simply become more than they have ever been in that one moment of greatness. We\'ll see if she has that stuff inside her one way or the other.

The only suggestion I have as to how to play the race is to do it like you do any other race and map out your strategies. I want to wait until closer to the race when I factor in weather conditions, post positions, etc. All I hope for is a fast track with good weather and no excuses. Churchill can be a rather biased strip at times (especially big days right after rain!). I\'ve seen that track have a golden rail like none other, and I\'d hate to see something wacky like that affect her performance - but of course equine champions beat track biases and all adverse conditions anyway. Anyone who says they know one way or the other is just guessing. Without any other information, I think Lucky is probably her biggest threat because he is still improving and the others have shown what you\'ll get. I never thought of QR as a mile and a quarter horse, he\'s a miler to me, and one of the best. Someone else I guess could step up, but, hopefully, the long Churchill stretch and good weather will leave no excuses for anyone. If she wins, it will be hard to argue that she\'s not one of the greatest of all time or the greatest, from any objective point of view - what other horse in history has done what she will have done? If she loses, the doubters will rise up, confident in their negativity and remind us that she never beat anyone and ran slow numbers on plastic tracks in her own backyard.

Good luck to all horses and handicappers alike, and may everyone come home safely.