Is there anyone on this board that thinks Zenaytta will win the Classic?

[covelj70]

If there is anyone on the board who thinks Z will win the Classic, I would like to hear the argument.

I don\'t think she has any chance but I have torn up too many tickets over the years after having had such a strong view (think Big Brown Derby) that I don\'t want to be too dismissive and I want to entertain the other side of the argument.

Much appreciated in advance.

This is going to be one fun week.

[smalltimer]

Jim,
This is a tough mare to just dismiss.  
I see problems for every single horse in the field.  The pace is gonna be no picnic with the likes of QR, Haynesfield, Espoir City, and First Dude.  Seems like Lucky and Blame will be in the next flight, and then Zenyatta bringing up the rear.

I have real questions about Blame as far as getting the distance with the 126#.  The 2 times he\'s tried 124 or more he has been beaten.  So now we\'re asking him to do something he hasn\'t proven he can do.  Is he a threat?  Sure.  Do you think Gomez is gonna want QR or Quality Road to get a big jump on him like last time?  
If he tries to keep him closer, I\'m pretty sure he\'ll hang.  Could be wrong.

Does anybody think Haynesfield is gonna open up on QR, or do any of us think QR is gonna open up on Haynesfield?  I doubt it, you can\'t let a nice horse like one of these get away from you if you need to be near the front end.  First Dude is likely to hang around for awhile, but Espoir City can really run, and he\'s really tough if the surface comes up wet. It\'s hard to play a horse shipping from Japan, but he\'ll make his presence known for a good part of the race.  He\'s likely to make things interesting for the first 8 or 9 furlongs.  Could be wrong.

Can anyone name even a single Grade 1 winner that Quality Road has ever beaten in a route race?  There aren\'t any, maybe that\'s a coincidence.  (At the time he beat Haynesfield, he was not yet a Grade 1 winner).  He\'s fast, dangerous, and if he has the right fuel in him, of course he\'s a helluva horse.  I think it would have been better for QR if they would have skipped those 2 mile races early in the 2010 campaign, they proved nothing, everybody knows he\'s fast, and they may have contributed to this horse being over the top now when it really counts.

Lucky is a very nice 3 year old in my opinion.  He\'s W-A-Y better than 99% of the people on this board thought he was early in the year. Coming from California synthetic and way too slow. I have a ton of respect for Baffert getting this colt to the top of his game next week.  He\'ll have to have a clean trip to have a real good shot, but I think he can live the distance.

I don\'t know what to say about Z that hasn\'t been said.  On paper, it looks like she is a complete outsider, but she did last year also.  Surface, blah, blah, blah. If anyone besides Espoir City is bred to like the wet track its Z.  
She can get the 10f, she\'s already proven that, its just a matter of how fast she can get it.  She stands to get an equal to better trip than last years BC race, and the long stretch could play to her advantage.  I would be very leery of John Shireffs in this situation.  Last year he had both Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta ready to run big.  I have no doubt Zenyatta will run by far the best race of this 2010 season.  This is the race they have trained and pointed for all year long.  They\'re not afraid of anyone in this field.  Can she get her doors blown off?  Off course, any of them can get drilled. She\'s 6 years old and she may wake up on November 6th and feel old.  I have no concerns with her carrying the weight, she doesn\'t have to be forwardly placed, she is proven at the Classic Distance, and I feel Mike will give her a great ride, its just a matter of if she\'s good enough.  Think what you want, but this is one horse who has risen to the occassion every single time, she\'s been in the limelight, she\'s been the center of attention. She\'s always found a way to get the job done.  With her style of running, it will be very late in the race before it would even dawn on her that she might get beat, otherwise, she\'s just gonna keep on moving down the lane. Every single horse in this race has always had an excuse when they got beat, except her.  She\'s been a slave to pedestrian fractions, to traffic problems, she\'s always found a way to come running late.  The same cannot be said for every other horse in this race.  She\'s very likely to run her race and get into the mix.  I view races like this as how many jockeys will panic or make poor decisions when things aren\'t going as planned for their horse.  I\'m a fan of Mike Smith, I like John Shireffs as a person. The last thing I heard Mike say is when she runs her race, she stands alone. I think Zenyatta runs her best race.  Could be wrong.

Lastly, I\'m not gonna defend my comments here.  Either you agree or disagree.  Doesn\'t make any difference.  When I looked at the string and there were about 100 views without a single person stating that they felt she would win the Classic.  I\'m just having my say.  There\'s no sense talking smack now, that\'ll come later guys.  
Peace out.

[APny]

I couldn\'t agree more.  I initially thought she was a toss but then I re-watched her 2 dirt races and found them to be 2 of her most impressive.  She gets weight and I think a -2 may be enough to win if she saves ground and there is a pace to run at which there undoubtedly should be.  I am not a fan of how they campaigned her but her record and desire to win is too much for me to totally ignore.

[jack72906]

Tough not to use a horse that\'s 19-0...regardless of what her numbers are. Are there questions? Yes, but she has the fewest amount of questions to answer compared to anyone else in the field.

She should get a decent pace to run at, her running style works for the long stretch at CD, and asking myself \"who will be the best of the closers\" it\'s Z IMO.

We\'ve all wasted money trying to beat her, and smalltimer is right, maybe she wakes up next Saturday and feels old, but if I had to take just 1 (luckily I don\'t) it would be Zenyatta.

[TGAB]

Sure, I think Zenyatta can win the Classic.

First, subjectively, we\'ve been underestimating her from day 4 or 5 or something like that and as much as we may not like the campaigns her connections mapped out, one has to at the very least grudgingly admire her accomplishments. We, figure players, associate good runs and good efforts with performance, not to mention, accomplishment achievements. Usually they\'re synonymous and but often when performance outstrips accomplishment, we eagerly anticipate the next run armed with information which we hope will be undervalued. That\'s all wrong though. To echo Herman Edwards who bellowed, \"We play to win the game,\" thoroughbreds run to win the race. That\'s really all the counts. So no losses over a three year span is really quite impressive and the last 16 wins all within a 3-point band, is also quite impressive.

Now in so far as her sheet, her pattern, I offer the following. It\'s been pretty well conjectured, and if not quite proven nonetheless somewhat generally accepted that synthetic tracks have constrained brilliance, speed in particular, and as a result the range of performance is much narrower. Synthetics tend blunt speed and races are run more often like turf contests where generally whoever runs last runs best. Nothing new here, but since Zenyatta is so good over synthetics, and those are her home courses, most, all but two, of her runs have come over such surfaces and coupled with her come-from-behind style of running, both factors have indirectly and adversely, affected her performance figures. Also how many true speed horses has she ever faced over these surfaces? Has she faced any Sidney\'s Candy types over synthetics? Seems she hasn\'t met many if any and such confirmed speed types tend to stretch out the field and increase the performance range of figures, a la a dirt race.

She jumped up 5-1/2 points in her first dirt run--a not uncommon experience among synthetic-to-dirt performers and she\'s only improved a 0-1/4-point in the 2-1/2 years since. Of course those pair-ups and slight bounces have all come over the synthetic surfaces, save one. That might be construed as improvement, development--the fact that she\'s essentially been able to perform consistently at that new level, albeit with an absence of new peaks.    

But rather than interpret the Oaklawn 2010 performance as evidence that Zenyatta is still equally as fast over synthetic and dirt, perhaps we can say that this was really an off race. (Conjecture, but plausible, I think.) Sure she ran a point off her top, technically a pair-up, but horses that get to the races at 3 generally hit their best levels at 5 or 6. Not so with Zenyatta and given her pedigree, the sire profile and the dam-sire, one has to wonder some. Dams-sire Kris S gets late developing route and grass runners while Street Cry from the  more precocious Mr. Prospector line, won the Stephen Foster as 4yo, at 9 furlongs shows a TGI favoring older runners, distance and synthetic, although the surface accomplishment parameters are more equally weighted between dirt and synthetic. Add to that her pattern--she\'s cycling forward. Now her running style prospectively works against her but we don\'t know the post yet and Smith can ride inside when he has to or at least 2w2w. Also, trainer Shireffs is also pretty good in this spot--synthetic to dirt--and they\'re not all Zenyatta. In other words, a 3-point new top or so is not out of the question. She gets a bit of weight--0-1/2 a point or so, and with a decent, not great, 2w2w trip, who knows.

And that kind of performance certainly makes her competitive. Blame finally ran a poor one for him, he was due. But even if he rebounds, he too could face traffic problems and concedes some weight. Quality Road is just plain backing up and looks to be dueling or running with Haynesfield who bounced the last time he ran as fast as his last. Fly Down is intriguing but the likelihood is that the Travers knocked him out, or at least enough such that he won\'t run his best here. Lookin at Lucky is a heck of a good 3yo but off 3 efforts, and maybe his last isn\'t good enough.  

Now is Zenyatta a good bet. Nope. She has to run a new top here and that may not be good enough. But I do think she has a shot to do it. I can\'t say she will win and I\'ll take a shots against her but I don\'t rule her out for reasons cited above.

[APny]

I just came across this montage of Zenyatta....she\'s simply a freak...it only solidifies my feeling that you can\'t throw her out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi0YaVefoeE&feature=related

[Silver Charm]

TGAB thx for the thoughts.

She will run her race and be about 5/2.

I found your comments about Blame to be interesting?

[Funny Cide]

A good bet is a winning bet, and Zenyatta stands a better chance at winning this race than any horse in the field.

Forget the numbers.  This mare hasn\'t just won 19 straight at the top level, she\'s done it despite a hugely detrimental running style.  She shouldn\'t have won 5 straight, much less 19, not when there are fractions that no horse should be able to catch after lagging behind by 15 lengths.  She\'s a freak, more so than many realize, and she\'s going to love 1 1/4 miles and that long stretch.

Pletcher\'s a good trainer but not nearly as good as a Bob Baffert.  He doesn\'t know how to get his horse to peak on one big day.  Now he\'s out trying to train stamina into Quality Road instead of just letting the big horse roll as he best rolls.  If they let him run as he wants, I\'d bet him underneath, now I\'m not so sure he\'ll even hit the board.

The horse who does have Baffert is Zenyatta\'s biggest threat.  Lucky\'s a good horse, he\'ll go 1 1/4 miles, he\'s a fighter, and he has Baffert.

Blame does nothing for me, and the rest are filler.

Don\'t let the numbers fool you.  They fooled a lot of people last year.  She\'s the best horse in the field, and that gives her a real chance at winning.

[alm]

This isn\'t written to disagree with your conclusion, but to disagree with just about everything else you wrote in this post.

Zenyatta\'s running style was detrimental to her winning?  Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which he explains how it was well suited to winning on poly?

Pletchers not as good as Baffert?  How do you conclude that?  By his results and the record or by your passion?

Pletcher can\'t get his horse to peak on a big day?  What big day are you talking about?  The days on which he wins Grade 1 after Grade 1 races?  Or the day on which he won the Kentucky Derby with a plug?

If Lucky wins this race he won\'t do it \'with Baffert\' as you suggest (Baffert will be in the stands)...he will do it with his talent, which a dozen other trainers could have brought out in him.

Blame does nothing for you?  I\'ll tell you that I wouldn\'t mind owning him so he could do for me exactly what he has done.

As for Zenyatta\'s numbers fooling me, they didn\'t fool me last year...I bet Gio Ponti because I hoped the best grass horse in the race would beat her on that b------t track surface.  God Bless her if she wins this race and good picking on your part...but please line up your reasoning with reality.

[Rich Curtis]

Alm wrote:

\"Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which he explains how it was well suited to winning on poly?\"

  That was Alan, not JB, though in his third paragraph, Alan sounds quite a bit like Classhandicapper.

[moosepalm]

There are legitimate questions about every horse in this race, so I wouldn\'t single out Zenyatta.  Along those same lines, I wouldn\'t single any of them in a bet, unless the odds seem seriously disproportionate.  It\'s a nice race to conclude a Pick-4 for those so inclined, and an even nicer race to generate some interesting bar and message board discussion, but no horse has the complete package of speed, consistency and class to instill stand alone confidence.  All I know is that I can\'t leave a 19-0 horse, who has already done a couple of pretty similar things, off my exotic wagers.

[jimbo66]

TGAB,

An interesting post.  I have to be honest though in that if I had 100 guesses I would not have guessed that either your TGJB would write this.  Rich Curtis has a point in that a few of the points are reminiscent of Class Handicapper.

Predicting a potential 3 point new top for a  6 year old mare with a string of 12 races in a row in a tight range makes close to zero sense for me.  Of course it is \"possible\".  But I wonder if you would define \"possibe\" as 1% or 20% or 40%.  

You think Quality Road is just plain going backwards.  Ok.  Possible.  I guess that would make Zenyatta a significant favorite over QR in a \"match up\".  I will take even money for a drink at Saratoga next summer.  If you want to raise the ante, I will add an ice cream from Ben & Jerry\'s.  

When you say \"we\" have been underestimating her since her 4th or 5th race, is the \"we\" Thorograph? Or all the figure makers?  Either way, I am not sure I accept it.  I don\'t think I have underestimated her even though she has taken my money many many times.  What I think I did, was take what I believed to be her over-rated perception and underlaid odds, and \"created\" a betting opportunity a few times that didn\'t exist, because her competition has been absolutely MISERABLE for most of 3 seasons and there just weren\'t real viable options in most of those races.  A handicapping mistake for sure, but not one of underestimating her.  

Quality Road will sit fine off of Haynesfield.  Not sure why many suddenly see QR as a \"need the lead\" horse.  He tracked a target in some of his best performances.  I don\'t see Haynesfield as a real contender, despite his last.  He got a soft pace and ran through the roof.  He is a perfect horse for QR to track IMO, cheap speed.  I think the horse QR will have to hold off is Lookin at Lucky, not Zenyatta.  If QR is not over the top and fires his best as a fresh horse, he wins.  If he is a bit off his best, then LAL comes and gets him.  

Big Z sucks up for a respectable 4th, killing value in the Super, but not a serious threat.

Jim

[Rick B.]

Funny Cide Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A good bet is a winning bet, and...

Here is where I part company with some of the most strident Zenyatta backers, who seem willing to take her in this year\'s Classic, odds unseen; that is ridiculous.

\"A good bet is a winning bet\"? Really? Let\'s flip coins* then -- you pay me a buck a flip, and I\'ll pay you back $1.80 every time it comes up heads. Tails, I keep the buck.

You\'ll hit a ton of winning bets (good bets, by your definition), and we can play as long as you want, until you are completely out of money.

Deal?


* no synthetic coins.

[P-Dub]

Rick,

One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.

How many have stated that they will bet her no matter what the odds are?? Few if any.

I am one of the biggest Zenyatta supporters on this board, and I left her off everything last year. Cost me P3 tickets and a P4.

You\'ve made it known what you think of the horse and connections. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, just stick to the facts. Few if any have stated she is a good bet at a short price.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick,
>
> One guy saying a good bet is a winning bet is
> hardly the voice of Zenyatta backers.

I agree. Who said otherwise?

I was pretty specific, Paul: I wrote \"the most strident\" of Zenyatta\'s backers. I meant that as \"a little\".

> How many have stated that they will bet her no
> matter what the odds are?? Few if any.

Poster Funny Cide implied as much. And a well-known west coast workout analyst thought $7 on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic was a big price, so I can safely count him in. Do you know for sure I meant more than 2 people?

\"Stick to the facts\", you say. How about sticking to what I wrote, not your erroneous interpretation of same. Your standard bull rush (as it were) to defend all slights towards Smith, Zenyatta, Shirreffs, et. al., whether real or imagined, is tiresome; why not give it a rest?