Should we read anything into the fact that Pletcher is on fire at Keenland?

[covelj70]

The first look at the sheets says he is LOADED for the BC.

If his horses are going to run their numbers in KY, he\'s gonna be a huge factor

[Rick B.]

Boy, I could sure use an expert read on this Pletcher guy.
 
Was oh-fer-forever in the BC at one time, right? (Or am I confusing him with Frankel?)

Now he seems to win a BC race now and again...but certainly not in proportion to what one might expect, what with his pantheon of top-shelf horseflesh.

Is that about right so far?
 
Can we revisit this topic, and while we are at it, would it be inappropriate to work in a discussion about what sort of testing we might expect to be in place at Churchill in two weeks?

Loaded subject, I know. I swear I am not trying to start any crap; I wish to God it wasn\'t even any sort of issue at all.

[jma11473]

Pletcher horses are 3 for 66 in Breeders Cup history (granted sometimes he has had more than one horse in the same race). His winners were:

Ashado (Distaff, 2004)
Speightstown (Sprint, 2004)
English Channel (Turf, 2007)

The 2004 BC was at Lone Star, the 2007 BC was at Monmouth.

He was 0 for 10 last year and 0 for 5 in 2008.

[TGJB]

This is of course THE handicapping issue for the BC. I will say this-- an awful lot of people have set up campaigns with the BC specifically in mind, passing good spots to get here fresh (Dutrow with his 2yo, Pletcher with Malibu Prayer, QR, etc.). The logical conclusion would be that they at least think they can get their horses to run their races at CD.

[Halo Fire]

Wasn\'t he a big o-for in the KY Derby also? The really good ones break through sooner or later and perhaps this is just his year to do so.

[miff]

Rick B,

TAP\'s record speaks for itself, so if he\'s using,as some occasionally suggest here, it\'s not working out too well on big days.Did win the Derby this year with a slug that totally tripped out in the wet.

They are super testing for the BC, which is good for all the known stuff, useless for the undetectable \"magic bullet\" Good luck!

Mike

[hooper]

This news is from September. Not sure if the governor has signed it yet but he was expected to do so before the BC.


 Racing commission OKs out-of-competition drug testing
State Commission expands authority for random checks, institutes five-year minimum suspension
By Will Graves - Associated Press
LOUISVILLE — Kentucky horse racing officials have expanded the state\'s power to test horses for drugs, passing a measure Tuesday that will allow them to test any horse eligible to race in the Bluegrass anywhere at any time.
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission unanimously approved an aggressive random testing measure Tuesday in hopes of further curbing blood doping and drug use in the sport.
\"This is the best way to attack the most serious problem in racing,\" said Ned Bonnie, chairman of the racing commission\'s rules committee.
The policy has been tabbed as an emergency regulation by the KHRC, speeding up the ratification process. It will go into effect once signed by Gov. Steve Beshear and filed with the Legislative Research Commission, which should happen well before the Breeders\' Cup championships at Churchill Downs in early November.
The new rules will complement the race-day testing already in place. The new tests are designed to detect blood-doping agents that are difficult to discover in post-race tests.
The policy gives officials the power to test any horse eligible to race in the state for a series of banned substances, regardless of location. Similar rules are already in place in New York, New Jersey and Indiana.
\"I think our list of prohibitive substances is a little bit more expansive than it is in the other states,\" said KHRC attorney Tim West.
Under the rules, an owner or trainer would have no more than six hours to make a horse available for testing once notified.
Refusal to submit for testing in a timely manner makes the horse ineligible to race in Kentucky for six months, and it\'s likely other states would honor that suspension. If a horse tests positive for some of the worst drug violations, the penalties for its handlers are stiff — a minimum five-year suspension and up to $50,000 in fines.
An owner or trainer would receive a lifetime ban for a second violation.
While applauding the move, standardbred owner and breeder Alan Leavitt said the penalties are not in line with regulations in other states. Leavitt was hoping for an automatic 10-year suspension for a first offense.
\"I think it is a bad image for Kentucky to be giving to the racing world,\" Leavitt said.
The approved suspension period of five to 10 years is considerably higher than the original proposed ban of one to three years. Thoroughbred owner and commission member Tom Conway, who saddled 2010 Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor, said the penalty was made flexible to fend off any potential legal challenges.
\"There was a group that thought it ought to be just a flat 10 years,\" Conway said. \"But that\'s tantamount to a life sentence for most people in racing.\"
Conway added he couldn\'t imagine a mitigating circumstance in a blood-doping case but wanted to give officials some wiggle room in handing out suspensions.
Finding violators can be difficult given the small window in which most blood-doping agents are detectable, West said, but the severe penalties are in place to act as a deterrent.
\"I would say that if we never catch anybody then the rule has been effective,\" West said. \"As long as we\'re testing people and not catching people, then the rule has done its job.\"
 


Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2010/09/08/1424235/racing-commission-oks-out-of-competition.html#ixzz138OuQrYx

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TAP\'s record speaks for itself, so if he\'s
> using,as some occasionally suggest here, it\'s not
> working out too well on big days.

> They are super testing for the BC

My opinion is that TAP is a pretty smart guy, and if he is using the rest of the year, he\'s NOT bringing them in all jacked up for the BC...hence his horrible record, the theory goes. And it\'s a compelling theory alright.

>useless for the undetectable \"magic bullet\".

I no longer believe this part. Testing will never get in front of the cheaters, but it has largely caught up.

Unidentifiable substances exist, at the moment; these will eventually be identified. \"Undetectable\" stuff? Not anymore: if it has mass, correct application of GC-MS will find it (and if the testing labs are using anything less, they are just wasting time and money); if it doesn\'t have mass, it doesn\'t exist.

[miff]

\"I no longer believe this part. Testing will never get in front of the cheaters, but it has largely caught up\"

Rick,

Right now in NY, they are beside themselves trying to find out what Rudy Rod is doing.Masking agents,designer cocktails et al.Pre and post race blood and urine show nothing. Special extra security/scrutiny reveals nothing.

The official line is he is tapping, using massage therapy,power nutrition and a host of old/new stuff.Rudy might be 1/10 the \'horseman\" of about 10-15 trainers on the NYRA circuit but is winning at an unheard of 38% at the present meet and 30% for the year.Thats not possible unless he is using.

The testers are not even close to catching up to the chemists,though the clowns that run run racing would have you believe that. It\'s a PR exercise thats too late even though they have improved the testing for traditional stuff.

Mike

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The testers are not even close to catching up to
> the chemists,though the clowns that run run racing
> would have you believe that.

If this were true, then why do certain guys pretty much go cold on big days like BC?

Doesn\'t make sense, unless the REAL problem in NY is how testing is performed, and how often -- a problem with the humans, not with the actual test technology, per se.

If the testing is performed and applied correctly, it\'s quite capable of catching some punk-ass former 5% rider with a so-called magic needle. These \"clowns\" that you say run racing seem to have you sold on the idea that they have really stepped up surveillance and testing on Rudy Rod, and yet he\'s still getting 30% winners. And you believe them?

I don\'t. No \"magic bullets\" -- I don\'t know you personally, Mike, but frankly, it\'s been my experience that that\'s how losers think: there is \"something out there\" (ala The X-Files), that always prevents them from winning. Really, if you were a trainer and had such a thing, so powerful yet completely undetectable -- why stop at 30% winners? Why not just load up and win everything, shoot for 100%?

It\'s more likely that the problems with testing are bureaucracy, human incompetence, lack of funding, indifference, etc...the boring stuff that has always plagued places that suffer from organizational failure.

[miff]

\"Really, if you were a trainer and had such a thing, so powerful yet completely undetectable -- why stop at 30% winners? Why not just load up and win everything, shoot for 100%?\"

Rick,

That may be case, but not every horse responds the same way to what any guy is illegally using.Oscar did not win every race either.

As far as certain guys disappearing on big days(assume you mean TAP), ya gotta have the horse to win, he hasn\'t.

Mike

[richiebee]

Miff:

RudyRod\'s work on display in Race 2 at Belmont today.

Endless Circle not only went from a horse running \"4s\" and \"6s\" to a horse
running negative numbers at age 6, he also went from a gappy horse showing vet
scratches to a horse which has already started 11 times as a 6YO.

Last week, Todd Schrupp on TVG mentioned RR\'s amazing results, and Paul LoDuca
(to his credit, one of the few TVG hosts with any knowledge of NY racing)
replied that RR\'s success is the result of \"hard work\", that RR is \"at the barn
early every morning\".

Could TG please start to include a trainer stat which denotes the time a trainer
gets to the barn each morning? How has Bob Baffert, a notorious late riser,
gotten into the Hall of Fame?

[miff]

Bee,

As you know, you can sleep at the barn, but if the horses have no talent, they don\'t win.I would venture a guess that no trainer in NY, licensed as along as Rudy, has had anywhere near his success. He\'s using or has God helping him,check the TG figs for many of his newly acquired.


Mike

[sighthound]

Just as an aside, you can inject the hell out of a horse (hocks, etc) and keep him really sound, pain-free and firing.  Most trainers do that judiciously and cautiously.  Some fewer do it way too frequently (for the long-term health of the joint).  Something to consider.  It doesn\'t always take magic to get a horse to run his best constantly - sometimes it\'s just choosing short-term gain over long-term well-being.

[TGJB]

The move-up guys aren\'t just keeping them firing. As Richie noted, Rudy (for example) is taking older horses with a considerable history and making them run a LOT faster than they ever have before.