Rides and Euros

[TGJB]

First of all, whether or not it was a bad ride, Al Khali had a bad trip, which is what matters. That kind of thing happens when the pace is really slow-- everyone can keep up, they get stacked up, horses behind the pack either face ground loss or trouble. The random (luck) factor goes up exponentially in those situations. Rider\'s aggressiveness is rewarded.

Second-- in the Nearctic, a Euro won, the 4 I put up as a box ran 2-3-4-5, beating the other Euros. The filly that won was clearly a first lasix jump-up, since she was much slower in Europe than the other Euros, let alone the ones from here.

In the E. P. Taylor, only two were NOT from Europe. Miss Keller beat all but one of them.

In the International, as I said in ROTW, Al Khali was solid and Marsh Side probably wasn\'t going to run well. Those were the only ones with 2\'s or better, lots had around 3\'s. Once MS didn\'t run and Al Khali had all that trouble, anyone who could run around a 3 was a contender (and the winner, who was getting almost a point in weight,didn\'t even have to run that fast). Haven\'t done the figure yet, but the blanket finish would indicate the race went somewhere around a 3.

The only tip I can give you about first lasix is that horses who bleed often have erratic patterns, stop, hang, or are eased. The filly in the Nearctic had an eratic pattern, but even if you thought lasix would help it would be tough to give her a 5 point new top (around what she ran) in part because so few fillies run that fast. There are some situations where the better you are the less likely you are to have the winner. Good bets lose all the time. (Well, not ALL).

[Silver Charm]

2000 Breeders Cup Turf Kalanisi

I had this horse that day. Mick Kanane was the rider I believe. Has was 9th on the rail the entire trip behind a slow pace. Then watch what happens! Green Silks in behind Fantastic Light. We ALL wish it worked out this good all the time but it does\'nt. And when it doesnt the name calling starts.......  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f8TOBwlfq8

BTW-Bailey said closers are at a BIG disadvantage on the CD Turf. I guess thats why Gary Stevens was on War Chant....

[jbelfior]

Silver:

I had a $100 double keying Tiznow with 3 in the BC Turf including Quiet Resolve who got nipped at 42-1. A friend at my house that day was screaming his lungs out for Kinane/Kalinisi. I threw him out of my house and he never got to see Tiznow\'s battle with Giants Causeway .Have not spoken to him since.

Bailey is correct....going long at CD favors up front runners. Not so at a mile.


Great trip of all time: Fraise up the rail in BC Turf at Gulfstream....\'94 I think!

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[P-Dub]

I\'m assuming your buddy bet Kalinisi??

[jbelfior]

P-Dub:

He had a $5 double with Giant Causeway. Chalk eater that he was/probably still is.

Maybe 2 of the more exciting races in BC history and perhaps the biggest chapter in my \"Woulda Coulda Shoulda\" life playing this incredible game.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[P-Dub]

I have a buddy just like him. Quick story:

We\'re at the Big Cap (a trip I plan every year for the past 20, which includes making all reservations and planning everything - car, hotel, box seats, flights, paying up front and getting money from the fellas later)

So its Saturday, he\'s taken a beating for a day and a half, and he decides to place a good sized wager on Yodeling Dan in a 1 1/2 mile turf race. He\'s something like 6/5.

I place a wager on a FG turf sprint, win bet/ex/tris, and get back to the box. I am watching the tv in the box as my horse draws away for the win and I hit everything. As I\'m cheering my horse home, the 6/5 shot at SA isn\'t looking good and I\'m told to keep quiet. Huh?? He says the box is for live racing, go upstairs if you want to root for a horse somewhere else.

YD runs 3rd.  I tell him in my classic P-Dub way that I can watch the race in the box (throwing in the parts about 20 years, event planning, I didn\'t tell you to bet some crappy 6/5 shot, etc..). I added that instead of playing another chalk loser, he could have played the race I told him about but refused to bet. That prompted an Eff Off and him stomping out of the box upstairs. I couldn\'t stop laughing.

Only difference is he came back 30 minutes later.

[Silver Charm]

Kinane was following Fantastic Light the entire trip. FL stayed inside down the stretch simply because he had a horse to his outside and could not get out. With 50 yds left the Jock is essentially standing up on the horse and full of run.

The horses outside Kinane began to fade as his began to kick and he suddenly found himself fanning out into a perfect running lane to take dead aim.

Not sure if this was the War Chant year or not. But I had Dansili in that race that.year and could not get to the outside and shot like a rocket through the entire field veering to the rail in the last 80 yds or so.

Even though War Chant ran clear on the outside down the stretch in the gallop out Dansili was 3 lengths clear of the field. They don\'t pay for the gallop out and with these races there really is NO \"tab him for next time\".

Pocket trips like Artie Schiller an Kip DeVille happen and wide trips like War Chant and Silic happen. I bet out on Silic and when you get paid you don\'t care how he got there. Just that he got there......

[jbelfior]

It\'s tough to maintain friendships at the track. This is an ultra competitiive game and most people have no clue how to act, especially when they\'re blowing.

Most if not all of my closest friends have never stepped foot into a racetrack.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[analizethis]

Jerry,

Thanks for the insights.

[Silver Charm]

I agree!!

My point on the Kalanisi trip of 2000 was, somewhat to defend some of the criticsm that Garcia was taking for his ride in the ROTW. Fantastic Light ended up dead while Kalanisi got lucky just after Durkin called him as \"being in a difficult spot\"  

I do hope everyone can offer insights or experiences leading up to the Cup. This can only help all of us and its not exactly like there are millions of visitors to the Board. There are plenty of other sources of talking heads, scribes, tip sheets, etc, etc to confuse people.

Looking forward to sensible and intelligent conversation over the next 2.5 weeks.

[jbelfior]

Silver:

As previously mentioned, I will look for forwardly placed turfers going long on the CD turf. I agree with Bailey\'s comments regarding the CD bias goinglong. That being said, I will look for something stretching out of the First Lady (Keenland) to a 1 3/8 ths.

I do not agree that this idea fits with the BC Mile.

BC Classic looks chalky. Can anyone really imagine someone other than Blame, QR, or Zenyatta winning this race?

As far as the BC Sprint; IMO this one has one of the best chances of producing a nice payout in the win and or exacta pool. The Division is not strong and if they want to make Girolamo the favorite, be my guest.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Breeders Cup Turf at CD

Great Communicator-wired but it was a total bog
Bucks Boy-wired
Quiet Resolve-almost wired or thereabouts at 42-1
Miss Aledged I believe came from out of it. That I believe was also very soft turf

Part of Baileys point was in the Turf Sprint only going 5 on a 7/8ths course with a not so long stretch speed horses have an edge.

[richiebee]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BC Classic looks chalky. Can anyone really imagine
> someone other than Blame, QR, or Zenyatta winning
> this race?

JB--

If Haynesfield (already acclimating at CD) and First Dude both go, I think Looking at Lucky has a much better chance of winning than does QR.

Even though the top 4 should all be in an array between 2/1 and 5/1, the fact that the four of them are taking action should make this a nice conclusion to the Multiple Race Wagers.

[jbelfior]

Richie:

LAL is an interesting discussion. Will certainly be of value coming out of Prep in Indiana which will inevitably get the Randy Moss like commentary \"no horse has ever won the Classic prepping in Indiana.\"

You will also here Randy say numerous times...\"Trained by Bob Baffert.\"

Big move into a lively pace may set him up well. Won\'t be easy, but you may get better than 8-1.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

I think you are likely quite a bit off on your odds for Lookin at Lucky.  The top books in London have him co-favored with Zenyatta.  Half the price of Quality Road.

While I don\'t believe he will be half the price of Quality Road, I don\'t believe he will be 8-1.  Maybe 5-1.  Zenyatta 5-2, maybe the next 3 around 5-1.