Rachel Retired !

[Dana666]

I don\'t have it in writing, but I think you are correct, JB -- that is what I heard a while back as well. The adjustments within the race, something like that.

[TGJB]

Hard to tell whether \"our correction\" is for the horse or the race. I would love to know which Z race they have faster than anything RA ran as a 3yo, since from what I understand they have RA about the same as we do.

Z ran against Rinterval last time out in an \"S Pace\" race, they\'re back against each other tomorrow. We gave Z 3 1/4 points the better figure last time. If anyone (Miff) sees Ragozin for Hol tomorrow, I would love to know what they had as the difference, as well as which race they have as Z\'s top.

[Flighted Iron]

\"Just looking at her physically\"

Just Curious here.What is the ideal physical makeup for a turf horse? 25+ years ago(known as a jocks agent and Jerry mentioned he was a trackman for TG)the
important info gathered by this gentleman prior to a turf race was the \"foot\".In recollection(could be wrong
here)a large,flat foot was ideal.If you\'re able could you take a peak at Z\'s paddles tomorrow?Curious if there\'s any correlation between poly and turf in regard to \"foot\".

thanks,
mjs

[smalltimer]

TGJB,
What is the closest margin of victory on a horse race(s) where the winner ran a negative 5 or better?  Just curious, don\'t expect you to take time to look it up, just looking for a ball park idea.
Seems as if most of the time those big negative numbers come up its because some horse won by multiple lengths and the rest of the field quit running, but I don\'t know if thats true or not.  
Thanks

[Rich Curtis]

I realize this is not what you want, but I think it says something, and I can take only so much of the \"search engine\" over there.

 Re; Re; Rachel vs. Zenyatta - (classhandicapper)     08-13-09 - 4:54 PM
Questions:

Did you adjust Zenyatta\'s last race figure for a slow pace?

When you make pace related adjustments, do you adjust all the horses equally all the time or do you occasionally subjectively adjust some more than others within the same race?
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 Re; Re; Re; Rachel vs. Zenyatta - (Robespierre)     08-13-09 - 5:08 PM
Yes and yes the correction can be different for different horses in the same race (some horses in this race didn\'t get any P~ correction at all) and Zen got the biggest one.
Date=08-13-09    [Msgid=1668166] [LoginName=Robespierre]   [IP Addr= 24.213.162.220]

[TGJB]

Without looking it up I\'m going to guess the Whitney between Commentator and St. Liam. I think the loser ran neg 5 or 6.

Agree they usually win by open lengths when they run that fast, certainly don\'t agree it\'s because the others \"stop running\". Just not running as fast as a horse running neg 5. If you run really, really fast you figure to win by more than if you don\'t.

[jack72906]

I\'ve also heard the phrase \"turf a**\" thrown around a lot in these parts and I\'m kind of curious what that means.

[TGJB]

It\'s a lot of what I want. Those guys have truly gone off the deep end.

This is the kind of thing that most non-figure makers can\'t understand (and even some figure makers don\'t, as was made clear in my back and forth with Friedman a few years ago), but the amount of assumptions those guys are making that are based on absolutely nothing is staggering. Complete nonsense. Gibberish.

And it begs the question-- if the figures were quarter point accurate before (as they used to claim for all those years until I shot the s--t out of that), when they were definitely NOT doing this (and not doing several other completely screwy things which Paul told me they started after I left), how can they be accurate now? As lawyers like to say, were you lying then, or are you lying now?

[TGJB]

I thought that was what happened when you went with a girl at night to a park...

Flighted-- ah, the great Joe Monahan. Who, when I called once to find out how a horse I was involved with ran that day in Maryland, said \"He got beat a nose, a neck, and 70 f---ing lengths\". He used to say horses with good grass feet had \"snowshoes\", as I\'m sure you remember.

Some synthetics play to grass horses (Keeneland), some don\'t (Hollywood). On your larger question, some here probably have opinions, and some may even be right.

[colt]

Add the 2004 Woodward between Ghostzapper and St. Liam, where Ghostzapper earned a hard fought half-head victory to go along with a neg-6-like figure.

[TGJB]

Right, forgot that one. Two marvels of modern medicine fighting it out.

[Rich Curtis]

Then I\'ll do one more:

First is a deleted Rags board post that was saved here. Below it is Friedman\'s response:

Robes,
I usually avoid discussing figure-making in my posts, preferring to leave this subject to the guys in the office, but your response to Classhandicapper about how you adjust the figures of certain horses individually in slow-pace races has created a stir off-line that is filling up my email box. I\'m surprised there has not been more discussion here. So I beg your indulgence.

Tongue only half in cheek, one friend of mine is calling this practice \"a Kronstadt moment\" (whatever that means) and, twinkle in eye, is calling himself \"utterly appalled.\" Here are some of his points, copied by me from his email:

1: How many customers actually knew he was adjusting figures individually in this manner? I\'d bet almost none knew. Hell, Classhandicapper didn\'t know, and he\'s been around a long time, and he\'s completely obsessed with this subject.

2: The ones who didn\'t know? Guess what: If they were adjusting the figures themselves for slow paces, then they were adjusting an already-adjusted number: double counting, in other words.

3: Yes, I know about the \"adjusted\" symbol, but one can adjust a race (cutting it loose of the others) as well as a horse. What\'s happening here is different. In effect the final time/groundloss/weight result is being rewritten in accordance with a pace theory put forward by the same people who spent years denouncing pace theory.

4: The last time I heard a genuine pace theory from the Ragozin Sheets, it was that pace was unimportant. They ignored it. Now they understand pace so well that they can adjust figures individually for its effects? Something seem wrong about this?

5: Are they adjusting by formula? If so, where on earth did they get this formula, which has eluded people who have been studying pace much of their lives?

6: Or are they adjusting by looking at the previous figures of the horses? In other words, how much of these adjustments is rooted in the previous figures of the horses supposedly harmed by today\'s slow pace?

7: Are they adjusting at all tracks and class levels, or is this mainly a major-track, let\'s-smooth-out-the-lines-of-some-Grade-One-closers thing?

8: If someone wants to make his own pace adjustments, how, short of a major project, does he go about de-pacing the adjusted Sheet number?

9: Why are the posters over there collectively imitating corpses on this subject?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friedman\'s response:

I deleted your posts because \"utterly appalled\" and \"really concerned\" have a venue for their blatherings and discussions with them are pointless and annoying.   In answer to your query:   we make adjustments to the number a horse would have earned based on his finishing time in the race in two different set of circumstances.   We give \"quit (~)\" figures to some horses who earned a better figure at an earlier point in the race than at the finish (most often at ~1/16 to 1/8 before the finish line) to better reflect the effort that the horses actually made in the race.   These \"quits\" are occasional and while sometimes all the horses in a given race may get quit figures, more often only some of them earned a better figure at the earlier point and some did not.   We also make P~ corrections when horses run too slowly early and must attempt to close into fast final fractions--that is when they do not have the opportunity to run a final time that reflects the effort that they made.   In most cases all the horses in the P~ races are similarly affected by the slow pace, but sometimes one or more horses are more or less affected and earn a different correction.   We make all these corrections on the conservative side and include the approx sign to indicate that the estimates made in these corrections is less precise than the work that goes into figures that are based on the horses\' actual finishing time.   We make these corrections to give a number that better reflects the effort the horse gave out on that day so that SHEET users will have a better indication of the horse\'s current form than would be available from putting down a poor number with an explanation to just disregard it (as for example is often done when a horse runs a poor effort with a capital T next to it, where we do not feel that we can make even an estimate as to how much the horse was affected by the \"trouble\").   Making these corrections is a skill based on decades of experience and analysis.   My guess is that those who say making these corrections is impossible are probably right with respect to their making them.

None of this has much connection to the traditional arguments of how \"pace\" should affect the numbers horses should get.   We don\'t put any stock in the \"lone speed\" or \"contested pace\" or the \"only\" closer affecting what number a horse in the race should earn.   Our numbers reflect final time except in the relatively rare circumstances where horses quit badly after running a better effort at an earlier point in the race or horses were so compromised by slow early fractions that they did not have the opportunity to run a final time that reflected the effort that they put out.  
[Date/Time=08-21-2009 - 12:21 PM]    [Msgid=1671374] [LoginName=Robespierre]   [IP Addr= 24.213.162.220]

[miff]

I have Z\'s Rag sheet amongst the many piles somewhere.I believe JB is correct in that Z is faster on Rags than TG and Beyer. That fits with the lofty figs that RAG\'S gives wide type runners,like Z(mainly wide last turn, 1st turn she usually near the back towards the fence, crawling along)

So that there are no excuses,hopefully there will be an honest pace and all will run close to their best.A very interesting thing for me is will Z fire her big late run if forced to chase faster early instead of galloping along as she has in most of her races. On this occasion she will not have the Little Sisters Of The Poor in front of her.Huge question in my area code!

Those questioning QR\'s \"heart\" did not see him dismiss his rivals with impunity when hooked as a 3yr old.Forget the heart,he will lose if he is fact distance challenged or over the top.

Mike

[TGJB]

The questions are right on point. Friedman\'s answer-- remeniscent of the Chilukki thing, where he answered a question about track speed changing with something about par times-- makes me again wonder to what degree he actually understands the subject matter (and the questions, in this case). I don\'t think he\'s consciously ducking, he just doesn\'t get it-- or at least didn\'t when he posted that. If he took it down later he might have figured it out, or someone else did.

A man with a search engine is a dangerous thing. As is a cell phone camera, as a lot of today\'s kids will find out when they try to run for office in 20 years.

[smalltimer]

thank you.