Rachel Retired !

[alm]

I just got around to reading this, you horse\'s patoot...Beyer as a \'figure\' in racing is deserving of criticism for sure, but when I knew him in Washington a long, long time ago, he was the best handicapper I had ever met.

He was ahead of his time and was a breath of fresh air writing about racing when  horseracing writers were really a bunch of deadheads.

There\'s no accounting for deadheads...they\'re everywhere.  Go prove my point.

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB:
>
> I\'m one of the guilty. I posted back in June that
> she would lose to St. Trinians.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


Aha!!!! So you\'re the one.

[smalltimer]

alm,
Sorry, you\'ll have to do better than calling me a horse\'s patoot, been married 34 years, that one just rolls off my back. Try something more original like when Monmouth Guy sends me a Person to Person and calls me an inbred hilbilly, and
manages to mis-spells hillbilly.

[Uncle Buck]

Let me ask you guys, including TGJB, Miff and Jimbo this...Will you be betting Zenyatta to win if she goes off at 3-1 in the Classic assuming she goes?

[jimbo66]

Buck,

Assuming a reasonably representative field (two of Blame, Quality Road, or Lookin at Lucky), I wouldn\'t go near her at 3-1.  

But you are talking about somebody who has bet against her quite a few times, so it ain\'t saying much.

I don\'t believe she is fast enough to run with the top colts on dirt.  I would be surprised if she got within 2 lengths of Quality Road (on dirt).

[Silver Charm]

What if they are being saddled next to each other in the paddock. Does that count?

I would not under estimate her. She will need a trip as Blame figures to be negotiating about the same one. Quality Roads feet and gate/shipping issues need to stay away. Lookin at Lucky is interesting but the Indiana Derby?? Blame needs to fire again. If so he is also gonna be bet. Rail Trip first time Tricky on Sat. hmmmmm

3-1 on Zenyatta is about right. I\'m not saying the right price just about right in line with what she will go off at. Quality Road will be favored at about 8-5.

This is one year where maybe the Trophy/Legacy/History means more than the Money........

[richiebee]

Jim:

I have enjoyed pestering you on this issue, so I will throw one more thought out
there:

You\'ve accused Team Zen of being overly conservative/protective.

If Zen wins Saturday, do you realize she could get a back door HOY by winning
the BC Ladies (Distaff) on Friday night and then hoping for a chaotic BC Classic
where Blame, QR and LAL are all beaten?

Absolutely agree that Zen would have blown by Rachel and held off Persistently in
the Personal Ensign, but still wouldn\'t have gotten respect becuase she beat a
filly who had peaked a year earlier.

[miff]

Buck,

The odds really dont matter much to me.If I like Zenyatta and 3-1 is the price, I\'ll get creative.Rarely bet win.

The Classic should be great if they all show up in good form. A terrible shame a stone dead toss like Rachel not in there.Subject to the final preps and the Classic draw, I\'m leaning at tossing QR off his pathetic perfect trip loss to Blame and his common Woodward performance(esp last slow 1/8th).QR failed twice at the distance (but in the mud and once down inside, a tough spot for him)).QR\'s spacing coming in for 1 1/4 miles is tough. TAP very good off layoffs but 1 1/4 another story.Two months ago I felt QR was a Classic cinch, now I\'m tossing becaue I believe QR is over the top based on his last 2 races.

If LAL gets a nice soft win tomorrow without too much exertion, I\'ll be leaning to him. Blame, a dangerous forward moving grinder, will have no answer for the best of Zenyatta late. Zenyatta needs a fair pace and must run her best last 3/8ths to win.Z has to run faster(really Mike?), but with the right dynamics, I feel she is very dangerous.

Good Luck Buck, hope you kill them!

Mike

[Dana666]

There\'s not much for me to say that hasn\'t already been said, but I will add (to P-Dub, especially) that if she wins the BC Classic this year, she won\'t be considered an all-time great, she\'ll be the greatest racehorse that ever stepped on a racetrack. Period. (I already think she is one of the all time greats, no issue there). No other horse could ever come close to matching her record of top class efforts year after year -- however you wish to measure it. A six year old still racing in this day and age, where most (even the best) are done by 3 or 4? Never losing? All those grade I\'s? Winning the BC classic on synthetic and dirt, two years in a row? You could go on and on, but no other horse (in ages past or today)comes close to those accomplishments. You want to discuss brilliant horses who ran a few amazing races in their careers (Rachel being a great example), fine, but to win over that many years and surfaces -- it\'s not rare, it\'s impossible. I\'ve been one of her biggest fans, and I didn\'t think she would win last year, and I think this year\'s field will be much better, so I have no clue really what she\'ll do. I almost wish she wouldn\'t even run in it, because she has nothing to prove to me. As far as Beyer, look, he was really cutting edge about 20 years ago, you know? Seriously. Does anybody really care at this point what he says? To say she is a synthetic specialist is complete lunacy. No one who knows anything at all about racehorses could say that with a straight face.  Perhaps, the cushion track at Hollywood kept her sound (for whatever reasons) over the years -- you want to say that, fine, makes some sense to me, but to say she\'s a synthetic specialist when she\'s run her best races on dirt?? I mean you can write that crap and get paid for it? What a country we live in! If we\'re still at the point of debating or denigrating Z\'s virtues as Beyer seems to be, we\'ve missed everything. The carnival came to town and went and we haven\'t even gotten out of bed.

[Uncle Buck]

I couldn\'t agree more Mike. When they turn for home, anyone who has a pulse and a large bet on anyone other than Z is going to be praying she doesn\'t fire because she is the BOSS universal in my eyes and will be steam rolling in the lane as usual and you know they\'ll get the half in 47 and change.

I totally understand the sheet methodology and where the sheetsters come from when looking at Z,especially those east of the Mississippi. But I\'m a realist. Her daddy\'s runner\'s relish Churchill, she\'s a true 10F horse,she outclasses this year\'s BC Classic Field, is \"fast\" and she DOESN\'T LOSE Grade 1 races on dirt or poly!!!!!!!

I\'m all in on Z. In fact, I\'m going to lay a stack on a Blind Luck/Zenyatta win parlay as well as large one way exacata\'s with Z and 3 or 4 contenders.

Quality Road has NO HEART. His last showed us that. He is a STONE COLD TOSS for me in the classic if he even shows up.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

You almost wish Zenyatta wouldn\'t run in the BC Classic.  I don\'t have to read another sentence in your post to understand your point of view.  You would prefer another Clement Hirsch or perhaps another Lady\'s Secret.  One more win against the Washington Generals, I mean the West Coast Synthetic horses.  

People/Zenyatta fans continuing to say that her \"best races were on dirt\" doesn\'t make it true.  Based on what?  Figures?  Nope.  Horses she beat?  Nope.  BAsed on what?

Sure it is possible that she is not a synthetic runner and could be even better on dirt.  But the connections have not allowed that to be factored in by rarely ever leaving California.  If she wins at Churchill, that is a whole different ballgame.  Even the biggest Zenyatta doubter would have nothing left to hang their doubts on.  

She is a consistently fast filly who dominated her competition for 3 years.  The problem in that sentence being \"competition\".

[jimbo66]

Buck,

It is possible that Quality Road = Commentator.  To me, Commentator was the best \"bully horse\" of the last 10 years in that when he faced outclassed competition he ran the proverbial hole in the wind.  Probably the most negative 5 or fasters than any other horse on TG.  But when he got pushed, he didn\'t run as fast (except vs Saint Liam in a classic Whitney).  TGJB would and has pointed out that coincidentally (or not), those \"pushed\" races I talk about were 2nd or 3rd off the layoff and as a horse with physical issues, he always ran better fresh.  

But I am still not convinced that Quality Road is just a bully and won\'t run well when hooked.  What I do know is that at his best Quality Road is much faster than anybody else running right now.  And since I don\'t believe he will be favored in the BC, (Zenyatta will be), that makes Quality Road pretty interesting.

[TGJB]

Zenyatta\'s top is the same on dirt (first Apple Blossom) as on synth. There is no reason to think she will run faster on dirt in the Classic than she has already unless you believe that she only does enough to win.

That Apple Blossom, by the way, was the best field she has faced, when you take into account ability over the surface they were running on.

By the way, evidently Ragozin has Z faster than either I or Beyer do. I would really love to know if this is a function of the absolutely nutty adjustments Friedman announced they had started making WITHIN the race-- giving extra credit to closers in slow paced races, IN THE FIGURE, as opposed to when handicapping later, as I\'m sure some do. If anyone knows, please let me know-- one way you would be able to tell is that the relationship between her and the fillies she beat would be different than on our figures.

[Dana666]

Yes, you are correct. As I said it in my post. SHE HAS NOTHING MORE TO PROVE TO ME. She could retire today and I wouldn\'t think less of her. So, yes winning in the BC classic at Churchill will impress any doubters she has left, but I don\'t need that personally. If you were to examine her dirt races, she wins by open lengths, on synthetic usually the margin is a nose or something similar. As far as the numbers, I don\'t have the sheet in front of me, but I believe she has run as fast or close to her top on dirt, WHILE ALWAYS being geared down (again) by open lengths each time. Seems to me even a novice of sheet reading would conclude, she\'s probably much better on dirt, no? Just looking at her physically, and she\'s the COMPLETE opposite of what you\'d look for if you wanted a synthetic specialist!

[Rich Curtis]

Friedman last year:

The most unusual aspect of the comparison between RA and ZEN is that they both have shown the ability to run top efforts on both dirt and poly.   I think that there is some justice in your approach of comparing dirt horses to dirt horses and poly and grass horses similarly, but in this case it\'s not really necessary.   Some of Zen\'s numbers may be slower because of slow paces (even after we make our correction) but her top effort is a point faster than RA\'s best and Zen has many efforts within a point or two of RA\'s top.   RA\'s efforts are as a 3yo as against Zen\'s top form at 4yo, but there are no guarantees that RA will be able to run faster numbers in the future even if she is campaigned as a 4yo (we can only hope that will be the case).   They are head and shoulders the best of any mares in modern times and to me it would be hard to pick the likely winner if they were to match up on dirt or poly.
[Date/Time=08-13-2009 - 11:45 AM]    [Msgid=1668057] [LoginName=Robespierre]