ROTW: Sword Dancer

[jbelfior]

Perhaps its time for a new topic.

Not sure I agree with assessment of GRASSY. Similar rate of improvement this year puts him in the thick of this at attractive price. Nice key in the exotics with TG\'s contenders.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[APny]

Grassy is the slowest horse in the race besides Romp...He would need a 2 point jump to even be competitive.  He has also never run the distance...1 1/2 is very different than 1 1/4.  Help me understand how betting the slowest horse in the race is a good bet at anywhere under 30 to 1?  I side with the analysis...Al Khali looks like the play.

[shanahan]

I will get on board with Grassy as I read it like a few others - slow, steady improvement with a jump in the cards today.

Neil Drysdale goes to the far coast with 2 and I will include Marlang.  Can\'t disagree with the analysis of the sheet, but this guy is not travelling for the Carolina BBQ.  Since he got this horse back, the 6-3-layoff-6-3 appears as the author says - unsound.  However, I\'ll go with the sire TGI showing a 2 point improvement at age 5, and the belief that this very patient trainer is a believer.

Expansion is a must use.  Al Khali obvious.
 
And Telling?  Well, as they say you could look it up - picked this guy last year on this very board and he pd $64.  Best effort lifetime on this track.  
So you say \"geez, this guy picked half the field?\"  
Here we go:
I think Grassy is the big $$ and will simply put him in 2nd under these guys in exactas for $5=$2-(Expansion,Al Khali,Marlang,Telling / Grassy).  Bottom of Tri for $2=$24 (E,AK,M,T/E,AK,M,T/G)...and small win $6 on G.  $50 ttl wager.

[MonmouthGuy]

I am going back to the well with Telling.  Will key Telling with Grassy, Al Khali and Expansion.

[drbillym]

Huge jockey change on Bearpath-very poor trips last two with Lenclud.  Looking forward to seminar today and hope to meet some of you guys there.  already having beer with Rick B. kudos to covelj for good placing in Spa handicapping contest.

[analizethis]

Take a look at Bearpath. Off a 50 day layoff he paired his 4 in a race where he had a tough trip running the last 1/8 in sub 11 seconds when got room and has a decent opportunity to move forward as a 4 year old. He has 2 wins in 4 attempts at the distance and, with Borel, should save ground and close into a pretty quick pace. At 10-1 in the m/l he is a key in the race.Al Kahli and the two Drysdale horses will all be pushing the pace setting it up for the closers including Telling, this one and Grassy.

[jbelfior]

And you know that Al Khali will get a 1 1/2?.....wow....you\'re amazing!!!

Good Luck,
Joe B

[shanahan]

you guys are right, have to include BPath...nice \"heads up\", thanks.

[MonmouthGuy]

Will definitely include Bearpath.

[MonmouthGuy]

Marsh Side is scratched.

[analizethis]

That will change the pace scenario and help the other Drysdale runner (Marlang with a rail trip on the inside) and Al Khali.

[nyc1347]

Hey guys..  

Assuming this 1 point better per start performance continues with GC this year he is a MUST use.  Look at the number power!  Just one point alone in this race to a 3.25 beats 6 out of 9 of these horses based on this years numbers!  That puts him in 3rd place at worst according to this read!  Also has shown the capability to fire multiple points better with no problems in the past and has a great chance to win this against these weaker overall horses if he does so.  Back class, number power, and pattern at 8 to 1 ML suggests to me that this is the play imo.  Good Luck!

[magicnight]

Nice going, MG! I think you owe Telling a big old box of peppermints this holiday season. You own this race!