ROTW - West Virgina Derby

[nyc1347]

its about that time again! =)  lets run em dooooown..


1 -  Nacho Friend -  pattern suggest that NF will not run a top. the minimum amount of time needed to run a TOP was from the 4 to the 4 which was about 7 weeks spacing.  only receives 4 weeks here off a career top so a 4-6 range would be expected imo here this race.

2 -  Thiskyhasnolimit - from the 7 to the 3 effort was about 3 months of spacing. 7.5 months after that effort came another top right off a layoff.  Bounced last time and gets another 6 weeks here.  Im thinking this guy can fire but the two top efforts are spaced out more telling me the 0 effort is not likely today. Looking to play this one down the road but i would expect right around a paired effort here for this race.


3 - Skipshot -   normally i would put a huge X on last years numbers as they seem to have no representation with the new connections this horse has now. Dillenback to Hollendorfer is a HUGE switch and this horse came back to very nice consistent form.  Key thing here to me is seeing what this horse did do when he ran dirt.  He jumped up HUGE 7 POINTS from poly to dirt and even BO showing an exerted effort.  To me this horse loves poly more than the dirt track.  Hollendorfer after having plenty of time with this horse out west got him into nice poly form and has been running consistent since.  From January to July this horse has improved 5 points but with the poly to dirt angle he improved 7?!  I understand the horse was only second time out and its natural to see big jumps like that but with such a huge jump to dirt im taking this as a signal that this one will fire a HUGE one in this race going back to dirt.  This horse has been consistent enough to be able to come back off short rest (3 weeks was the same rest he had from that dirt to poly angle).  If Hollendorfer can get this one to improve from a 21 to an 8 first out this year then i think it be expected the same from the 14 on dirt to his effort in this race (which would clearly be a new multiple point top). i believe hes going to run his eyeballs out now being in the best poly form of his life and now going to dirt again.

4 - Not Abroad -has developed a whole bunch but is running well recently.  the rest pattern is not consistent here and off a top race last out i would expect a bounce or even effort at best.

5 - Exhi -   took a very long time to develop and is in top form now.  only problem is that those are poly numbers.  this horse looks almost like interactif to me where he just gets bounced around different tracks as much as he throws in random numbers.  anyway top last out and now the ship along with the dirt and high weight.. an off number is more likely to me especially with the speed and the price just isnt there either. has number power but i wouldnt put on top.

6 - Gunfighter -  nothing wrong with a horse who hasnt gone backwards yet.  big negative i see here is that this one has a pretty big top and only a month off. even if rest isnt the issue the trip may be one as there will be others just as fast trying to get out and he will most likely lose ground. A thorograph 1 top now turns into a 2 or 3.. and things only go down hill from there.. il pass

7 - Concord Point -  big top last out and trainers are known to ship horses out east and they run one and done. remember POTN?  a little different here though as the horse does have rest.  i have a personal rule where if a horse run a big neg # as a 3yo i like to see about 10-12 weeks rest minimum to get back to a top effort (just like birdstone from belmont stakes to travers, bernardini from preakness to travers, etc).  this one has about 7 weeks so im expecting a regression...  may also get a bad trip too with outside speed.  id use underneath since there is no value and itll be a lower chance to win expecting a regressed effort and possible wide trip.

8 -  Shookstown Road -  longest of long shots for good reason

9 - Toh\'s Grey Cat - last two were nice but were much slower than these.. would take all the poly horses to not run and all the horses who could bounce to bounce off the walls to get this one in the number.  Dont think that is too likely unless this race really falls apart and i doubt that.  

overall -   those speed horses will be blazing up front and in the process of that speed some will be losing ground while Skipshot saves ground which should help with the high weight.  Skip goes to dirt and imo should fire huge with the poly to dirt angle again.  good luck!