Stately Victor in the Belmont

[covelj70]

I know that most of the hype heading into the Belmont is around Ice Box and Fly Down and I don\'t know the numbers for all of the horses yet but I would rather play Stately Victor at 8 or 9 to 1 than Ice Box at 2-1 all day long.

I know I wrongly advocated for Stately Victor underneath in the Derby but he ran credibly with a small bounce that was easy enough to see coming for many in the derby (not by me of course).

Again, I don\'t know the numbers for alot of the horses so this view could change dramatically based on those numbers but he is just as fast as Ice Box on his best, with a similar pattern (a big jump followed by a slight bounce), is bred for the Belmont distance as well or better than Ice Box and has the same kind of running stlye.

Maybe another one of the horses who\'s figure I don\'t know yet will be my play on top but best I can tell now, I will use SV instead of IB as part of the rest of my ticket.

[sekrah]

I will use him stronger than I use Ice Box underneath.

[nyc1347]

You guys do realize that SV has a POLY TOP of 6 last year and this year he ran a 1 as a top.. for DIRT he was a 9 last year and only a 4 this year right?  Hows that going to do it in the Belmont running dirt?  To me hes proven to be a Poly horse especially with only 2 starts..one being his 3rd career best and the other one being the best.

The 4 (2nd best) to me is even more debatable when it was his first slop effort and that it couldve been for that reason he ran it.  Either way imo he seems too slow on dirt to be any factor in the race at all.  He would need to run his best (which he ran on poly) going 12F with 5 weeks rest off a bounce effort that was on slop..  errrrrrrrrrrr.  I will pass until he gets back to poly again.

[covelj70]

NYC,

I certainly understand your points, thanks for the thoughts.

who do you like (and don\'t say Ice Box)?

[nyc1347]

i had an opinion in a prior post within week or so ago saying that Ice Box should run a nice effort in the Belmont imo and that Im actually expecting a new top effort having very nice timing into the race as hes had only 2 races in the last 12 weeks and should be primed to go.

Im waiting to see the numbers on the others, see how big Fly Down ran last out, and the ML odds to get an idea of who I am playing.  On numbers alone and my assumption he probably ran about a neg 0-1 or so and should be the fastest going in..  i really have no idea though and il wait til next week to break down the race.  I will def pass on SV though and First Dude if he runs cause id expect a bounce off the Preakness effort with only 3 weeks rest.

[covelj70]

Ice Box at 2-1 doesn\'t do much for me.  

Not alot of value add to give out the 2-1 favorite who finished 2nd in the Derby.

Not sure why you feel so compelled to trash a horse who will be 10-1 and then highlight that one your picks to run well is the 2-1 fav that every $2 bettor at Belmont will have on their ticket.

yes, I know that the horse who is 10-1 has some questions to answer, that\'s why he\'s 10-1 and not 2-1.

anyway, all good, I look forward to a great card next weekend, should be fun to cap.

[nyc1347]

Im not trashing the horse.. on analysis is just not a play to me personally.  If you think 10 to 1 odds are good enough to play him then fine.. i think you may very well get closer to 15-20 to 1 as Fly Down will most likely be overbet against his ML odds as well as others.. which is even better for you obviously.. I just dont think hes even 15 to 1 to win this.. his dirt top is a 4 and he would have to go forward to just be a factor. As I see it, there would have to be a load of things to happen for him to make the winners circle.  Good Luck to you though.

My Ice Box pick is just analysis on pattern and rest as he is a fresh horse.. hes running the best races of his career now and theres no reason to think he wont continue. I have no clue what he will go off.. probably right around the range u are saying 2-3 to 1 or so.  Whether I have him along with everyone at Belmont or not according to what I see on paper he has a 50/50 shot of winning the race.. and 3 to 1 or higher is value imo.

[big18741]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/113245.html

Sounds like they put a speed work into him today.I\'m trying to beat both of those Zito horses so he very much interests me.

I know it goes against the grain here but I think First Dude can fire again.If he\'s reported to be doing well training this week and next the race goes thru him IMO.Hoping Covel and Miff who have eyes and ears there can keep us updated.

[jack72906]

Anyone care to guess what FD will go off at? I like to him the board at a minimum.

[covelj70]

Big,

For whatever this is worth (and I would be careful about how much emphasis I put on this), I was on a call with Dale Romans today and he\'s absolutely in love with this horse right now.  He believes he came out of the Preakness better than he came into it.  My guy at CD says the same thing that he has held his weight and that he\'s got alot of energy in his gallops.

He is going to breeze on Sat at Belmont.

Again, please be careful with how much import you put into all of this but since you asked, I figured I would pass along.

I will just use the sheets and not weight how the horse is doing too much, I have cost myself too much money over the years listening to trainers but again, I wanted to post this since you asked.

Good luck, should be a really fun week.

[mjellish]

I heard this horse is actually doing better than before the Preakness, and I know they were very high on him before that.  I liked him based on what I saw at Gulfstream earlier this year and what I heard about him.  He got absolutely shut down in the FL Derby.  That being said, a horse like him needs a clear path.  He doesn\'t have a turn a foot, more of a crusier.  Belmont should suit him well, but I need to see something out of him myself.  Can\'t just take a trainer\'s word for anything.  They will all tell you how good their horse is doing.  I\'ve found if you get to know them, it\'s usually what they don\'t say that is more telling than what they do.

For what it\'s worth, SV strikes me as strictly a turfer/poly horse.  High action, hits the ground hard.  I don\'t give him much of a shot to win the Belmont, but he is bred for the distance and could hit the board.  I would prefer a horse like Stay Put if I was looking for a price on a win horse.  This horse is training very well right now and might surprise a few people.

Still waiting for someone to ask Zito why IB refuses to change leads now when he didn\'t have this problem prior to the FL derby.  To me, it\'s a sign of something.  But what that something is or means is another story.  Alydar had the same issue.  Either way, IB is going to be overbet in the Belmont simply because he took 2nd in the Derby and most people will assume since he closed so strong at 1 1/4 he will do even better at 1 1/2 - which is completely wrong.  I can see why some would make him most likely winner.  But for me, if he wins then I have to let him beat me.  I would need at least 5-1 to even consider playing him to win and I don\'t think I will get anything near that.

Not sure how I am going to play this race yet pending final works, but it might be a big one.  Not much early speed so have to factor that in as well.

[jbelfior]

Mike:
Dale Romans\' horses are always doing good. I have yet to hear him or any other Triple Crown trainer say otherwise.

I agree with your assessment of Ice Box. More than one in here will be 4 or 5 in front of him at the quarter pole. IB unlikely to pass them all with likely pace to be :49 and 1:14.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MonmouthGuy]

Any thoughts on MMfM?  He seems to have a chance to move forward off his Derby trip, should get the distance, and will be a price.

[covelj70]

Joe B.

Generally, I very much agree that every trainer, including Dale, always loves all of their big horses heading into a race.

That said, on the same call, when asked about Quiet Temper in the Acorn, he had a completely different tone and said somethimg like, \"she\'s an honest horse\" and that she puts in an effort everytime.

Again, there\'s no reason to put alot of weight into these trainers comments, I just wanted to add that there was quite a noticeable difference in his tone between First Dude and Quiet Temper and I figured I would mention since Big had asked.

Gonna be a fun week

[big18741]

Thanks for the info Covel and MJ.Hoping these last works and gallops next week will give some more clues.

I get the feeling that Game On Dude isn\'t a definite for the race.Baffert was fired up right after that 6f work last week.Haven\'t heard a peep after yesterdays 7f work.Thinking something might be up.

Interested to see if a rabbit or two gets entered next week.Maybe Zito has something in mind.