Sekrah's Preakness Analysis

[sekrah]

First, let\'s get the complete tosses out of the way

Aikenite - Don\'t see Pletcher sending out anyone who could possibly beat Super Saver.  Should get a good rail trip with Castellano but this horse was used up pretty good in the Derby Trial.  3 weeks rest, I don\'t see him making a forward move to compete here.   Reluctantly leaving him off the bottom of my trifecta tickets.

Northern Giant - DWL throwing another one against the wall and seeing if it sticks.  Took 6 races to break maiden, has done loads of 3-year old development.  Don\'t see anymore there.  He\'s peaked out well below the top tier of 3-year olds.

Jackson Bend - Spent.  Said this before the Derby and I\'ll say it here.  The hard two-year old sprint campaign by Stanley Gold has used this horses best races up.   Needs a layoff and to shorten up back to a mile IMO.  

First Dude - I suppose he\'s eligible to move forward a little here, and there\'s a chance he could be a part of the early pace, but there\'s also a fair chance he will get strung 3 or 4 wide into the first turn.  

==

Now, the exotic contenders

Schoolyard Dreams - They rushed this horse into the Wood when he wasn\'t ready.  The way the pace scenario played out, he really had no chance there.  6 weeks rest, and a good shot at a nice 1w1w trip, I give this one a fair chance of grabbing a piece.

Pleasant Prince - Ward said he didn\'t like the poly when it got hot and sticky during the Bluegrass.  They shouldn\'t have rushed him back in the Derby Trial but LeParoux said he still had a lot of horse under him and he shut him down when it was clear he wasn\'t going to win.   If he runs his Florida Derby race he hits the board here.  Not sure if he\'ll get the same pace setup but at 20-1 he\'s a must use underneath for me.

Looking At Lucky - Still very good, still very fast, still very unlucky.  Horse has to catch a break sooner or later right?  Not leaving him off my tickets.

Caracortado - Not that there\'s anything overly impressive about this horse.  He showed to handle dirt-like Hollywood very well as a 2-year old.  The distance might be a tad too much, but I\'m not letting a potential one-and-done poly runner wreck me.

Paddy O\'Prado - Using this one hesistantly.  I think there\'s a fair chance he regresses from the Derby.  But Desormeaux has won this race a few times and will give him a decent chance to hit the board.

Dublin - Crappy post again but moves up with Gomez.  LOL at Pimlico morning line man for making him 10-1.  Just like the Derby, he\'ll be 20-1 here again IMO.  He\'s still a pretty good horse though and I give him a fair chance to hit the board.


My Keys

Super Saver - Should get good trip, I can certaintly see Borel getting the same kind of trip he got with Rachel last year and winning this one in similar fashion.  Still in great shape after the Derby, working well, eating well and looking as good as ever.

I fully expect Super Saver to make NBC very happy and win this race and head to the Belmont for a shot at the Triple Crown.  However, if anything were to go amiss with Super Saver (bad trip, bad step, bad breakfast), I will need a second bullet to capitalize on it.


Yawanna Twist - Lightly raced and eligible to explode 6 weeks off the layoff.  Big TG fig.  Big on my figs.  Dutrow doesn\'t send horses out into a stakes race like this unless he thinks he can win.  An exception would be Homeboykris in the Derby, but every fit and qualified on earnings horse goes in the Derby.   I think this horse is damn good.  Prado cut his teeth at Pimlico.  IMO, I think he has some early spunk and can potentially get the rail and the soft lead into the first turn (with SS on his outside).   Yawanna Twist had 11 lengths on the rest of the Ill Derby field and I think there\'s a chance he didn\'t like it all that much.  I read several trainers felt it was cuppy.   In the Gotham, he was cutting into Awesome\'s Act lead and would of nailed him with another 1/16th.  He was also carrying 2 more pounds than AA in that one.

My Top 4

1. Super Saver
2. Yawanna Twist
3. Looking at Lucky
4. Pleasant Prince


Tri #1 - SS+YT / SS+YT+Unders / SS+YT+Unders -
Tri #2 - SS+YT+Unders / SS+YT / SS+YT+Unders -

Also will have various SS+YT exacta combos with those unders.. Might throw in a win bet on YT, especially if he stays up there around 25-1.  Maybe a bigger win bet on SS if he creeps towards 3-1 (unlikely IMO.. 2-1 seems about right)..  WIll also use those two in the Pick 4.


Good luck.

[mjellish]

I think with as closely matched as many of these are, and being a slow bunch overall when compared to year\'s past, and with no true pace or front runner, saying anyone is a toss from this race with confidence is pretty tough to do.  I think the trip these horses get is going to have a lot to do with who winds up finishing where.

Aikenite has run just as fast as SS, was pretty fast as a 2 yr old and could definitely hit the board if he handles the distance.  I think he has more of mid distance pedigree than anything else, but he starts on the rail and will stay there until he gives it up.  Saving ground is going to help him.

Schoolyard Dreams ran a 4 as a 2 year old, so he still has room for development.  His Wood race is a complete toss as he had a minor illness.  Take that out and look at his line and I would say he is very likely to run a new top.  He\'s been working very fast for this, but had a pretty slow gallop out after his last work.  Just once this year I wish a 3 yr old horse would make it easy on me and work fast, relatively far AND gallop out strongly.  Has stamina on top but a sprinter\'s pedigree on the bottom.  He drew well though and should be able to get a forward position and save ground, which will help him extend his distance capabilities.

I think the connections of Pleasant Prince blew it by trying to rush this horse into getting enough earnings for the derby.  Now this will be his 3rd race in 5 weeks and he ran a new lifetime top in the race before that.  He\'s already developed a lot from his 2 year old number and he may not get the pace to set up his late run either.  So I don\'t think a new top is likely, but if he runs back to his prior top or comes close to it somehow then he will hit the board.

Northern Giant looks slow, but he drew well and has some early lick.  This is Lukas\' other horse here, and I think we are going to see some good ole\' fashioned race riding.  I don\'t think there is a chance that they let SS get an easy front running, inside trip.

Ywanna Twist comes into this as the fastest horse, but he\'s another one that has more of a middle distance pedigree.  But he\'s fresh, fast, and I remember when his grandpa beat me out of cashing in the 1995 Preakness.  If he wants the lead I think he can get it.

I don\'t think Jackson Bend really wants to go this far.  He\'s never won a race outside of Florida and hasn\'t developed at all since his 2 yr old campaign, neither of which are positives.  I don\'t think he cared for the slop at Churchill, and it didn\'t take much trouble to throw him completely off his game.  But he should be able to get a forward position in the race, as forward as he wants to be.  And he fired a very fast, bullet 4F workout after the derby with a strong gallop out, so I don\'t think he expended too much energy in the race.  He could run his best race this year and while I don\'t think he will win at the price I can\'t see tossing him.

LAL ran a pretty remarkable race in the derby.  He\'s won 3 grade 1 races and the only other horse that\'s even won one is Super Saver.  His first race on dirt was a 3/4, and he had trouble.  He\'s shown a lot of heart in almost every race, which is more than you can say for many of these.  I don\'t like how Baffert isn\'t at least blowing this guy out though before the race.  He usually works his horses pretty hard.  I know the horse has to be dead fit, and I\'m not saying a work would do anything to move him forward.  It\'s just when I know how this trainer usually operates, any deviation from the norm is something to pay attention to.  He could win this race outright, or he could fade and miss the board altogether if he is a tired a horse.  And I have heard he looks neutral in his gallops.  Very, very tough read.

I\'m of the opinion that SS got a dream trip in the derby, is going to be over bet in this race and offers no value whatsoever.  Even after getting the trip he got, which he earned, he still didn\'t exactly blow this field away.  I don\'t think he\'s got a lot of room for error, and I think he\'s got a big bullseye squarely on his back.  No way he gets to the inside without having to work hard for it early or dropping back.  Calvin is pretty aggressive out of the gate, and I am assuming he is going to break sharp and come out strong.  There\'s a couple inside him who will do the same, so I think he is going to get a 3w trip or have to expend a lot of early energy not to.  But he\'s still likely to run well and is one of the fastest in the race.  He also worked really well, with a double gallop out of two 1/8ths, both in 12 change, which would seem to indicate that the derby didn\'t empty the tank and may have even moved him forward.

Caracortado had just as much trouble in the SA derby as Lucky did.  He got stopped cold but didn\'t recover as well.  Now he comes into this with good rest, a good 2 year old foundation and has every right to improve.  But he\'s another that has more of a middle distance pedigree.  I also didn\'t like the way he couldn\'t make up any ground in the San Felipe.  I know there was no early pace to run at, but watch the way Interactif still unleashed a run.  I think this guy isn\'t nearly as good as some people think he is.  But he is fresh and could hit the board.

IMP Paddy was hurt by the draw.  I would be willing to bet that with a clean break this guy is going to come out running and try to get in front of SS heading into the first turn.  I think they are going to see if SS can pass them in the stretch, rather than the other way around.  Kent knows Pimlico as well as anyone and he knows you have to save ground and there is not much early speed in this race.  I wouldn\'t be surprised to see him on the lead here, and then it just comes down to how fast does he have to go.  I didn\'t see any major trouble for him the KD, but I did see more than anything I have read anywhere.  Near the end of the backstretch he ran right up on the heels of MI and lost momentum, came out, came back in and got stuck down inside when SC began to tire, he then steadied behind Conv as he tired, came out, gathered momentum and then had to check again just before the 1/8th pole.  After that he didn\'t have much left, and it almost seemed as KD had so much mud on his goggles that he couldn\'t see anything (watch the replay around the 1/16th pole) and didn\'t ride him too hard after that.  He wound up getting nipped for second, but Paddy then went right by SS on the gallop out.  A straight read of his sheet says a new top is unlikely here.  But I\'ve been told he looks like a monster on the track during his gallops now.  He may run even better.  Tough read.

First Dude looks too slow and was hurt by the draw, but he\'s had trouble his last two races and one of them was on Poly.  If you go back to his race in Feb he missed to Fly Down by a head.  So if you give him credit for trouble in the FL Derby, and throw out his race on Poly, he could do almost anything here.   I wouldn\'t think he could win, but he could hit the board and will be a price.

As I\'ve said on he board, Dublin seems like a complete head case to me.  Not sure if Gomez is going to be answer.  I also think he was really hurt by the draw.  But on paper he\'s fast enough to contend, or even win.  I don\'t think that is likely, but I can\'t toss him with confidence.

So how is a guy supposed to bet this stuff?  SS will be over bet, LAL will be over bet, Paddy is going to have to work for it, you can make a case for almost every other horse equally after those three.

I think to bet this race you have to find some value by tossing either SS, LAL or Paddy from the tri and betting it strong, or keying all three of them in first and hope for the best by using the all button in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and hoping a real bomber or two comes in.  Trouble is I think a lot of people are going to use the all button.

I\'m still hoping to get some solid info on LAL, as I think knowing his true condition is the key to making money in this race.

[jimbo66]

MJ,

I read your post twice and I came to the same conclusion.  It reads like the epitome of a \"pass\" race for you!!  Tough to pass a Triple Crown race, at least for me.  i am not that disciplined.

I am going to dabble in the Black-Eyed Susans - Preakness double, since I did so well there last year.  Singled the winner of the Susans with 7 horses in the Preakness (weighted), none of them named Rachel Alexander.....

Like a lot on this board, I think Tidal Pool is a bet against off the two weeks rest, racing on a dead rail.  I am going to key two horses that are a little slow, but have room for improvement, get some weight, and have inside posts.  Seeking the Title (apologies to Michael D if I mush your horse) and Acting Happy.  They are 5-1 and 10-1, respectively, although I am betting that Seeking the Title goes off less than that.

I am going to take the view that Super SAver moved up on the wet track in the Derby and that Baffert\'s handling of Lookin at Lucky since the Derby smells of concern that he has a tired horse.  If I am right about those two things, the race is WIDE OPEN.  As such, I will use a 2 by 3 DD ticket with Aikenite, Schoolyard Dreams and Yawanna Twist, weighted with 50% on Schoolyard Dreams and 25% each on Aikenite and Yawanna.  

As MJ mentioned, Schoolyard dreams has only developed 2 points from his 2 year old top, had a excuse in the wood, and gets rest into this.  A new top is definitely possible and he gets a nice inside post.  I actually think that because of the lack of a true frontrunner, we might see MORE early action in the race heading into the first turn.  The Lukas horse should be sent, Dutrow might have Yawanna sent, Jackson Bend might get sent and Caracortado could be sent for position.  I want the nice inside post with a tuck right after the start for Schoolyard Dreams.  I think I get 12-1 or so.

Good luck everybody

[albany]

I have to agree with your view that Super Saver got a dream trip in the Derby. Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box had horrendous trips. If those two had even average trips, Super Saver would have been a perfect trip third. How impressive is that?It\'s hard to accept low odds on him in the Preakness.

[mjellish]

Yep.  Pass race for me.  But since it is the Preakness I will probably throw a couple hundred at it and see if I can be right.  Opening weekend here in MN for the local strip, so I\'ve got to be there.  Got my trainer profiles ready.  Got my new par sheets and numbers made and ready.  Couple of new faces in the jockey and trainer colony.  See two good bets to make on Sat and one on Fri night.  Who knows, maybe I get up some money and play the Preakness for free.  

The more I think about the Preakness the more I think SS could get a pretty rough trip, and I don\'t think he has a lot of lengths to spare.  Add to that, IMO LAL is either the most likely winner or could be tired and miss the board altogether.  Either way both of these horses will be over bet, and way over bet together.  Paddy could run well, but the draw hurt him so I would need 10-1 to bet him to win and I don\'t think I will get it.

In a contentious race like this I tend to lean towards betting small and insisting on playing only what I perceive to be value.  I will therefore let the tri combos with LAL and SS on them beat me, and if they do they do.  Going to play a few tickets tossing one, a few tickets tossing the other, and a few tickets tossing both.  Going to use POP, SD & FD as the other secondary key horses.

I wish like mad that SD would have galloped out stronger after his last work so I could play him with gusto and make him my one key horse in this race.  With his draw and running style he should get a 1w 1w trip, ease out and be right there at the top of the lane with nothing left to do but see if he gets the distance.  I\'ve only seen a couple of moves that really impressed me from any of the 3 year olds this year, and his wide, premature move on the turn that he then sustained through the stretch in the Tampa Derby was one of them.  On average his sire profile indicates about 4 points of development from 2yr to 3yr.  So far he\'s developed only 2 pts, which would seem to indicate he has a new top coming.  Don\'t know if he will get it at 1 3/16 on Saturday, but he\'s got rest and the odds and likelihood of a good, ground saving trip make up for the risk at the distance.  If you can get him home with either LAL or SS, but not both in the tri, there should be some value there no matter who else hits.

[alm]

Thank you for your thoughts, but you made one mistake: Dublin is the other Grade 1 winner.  The Hopeful.

For what it is worth I think there will be a punishing pace in this race, partly because these horses are not that great, so it won\'t have to be very fast to hurt.  I do not believe we are looking at a Triple Crown winner...I do believe the winner will come from far back, which is not normal in this race.

I will key things around Dublin, which I believe will be taken to the back from the start.

[Michael D.]

Figuring out LAL is the key to the race. He looks like a Sweetnorthernsaint, or even a Point Given. His Rebel run with the :06 final 1/16 was the best \'10 prep performance imo, and he looks well suited to get the Preakness distance. If Lucky does get a free running trip, and he is healthy, he\'s the one that will make the run at SS. Problem is the trip obviously. Correctly handicap some trouble from this guy, and I think the race becomes SS/all/all, as they are quite evenly matched below. I do this for fun though, and hitting the all button isn\'t fun.

SS is the target here, so it might be a good idea to toss the runners that figure to run with this guy early, and focus on one that might suck up for weak pieces. Aikenite maybe? I was originally appalled by his fade job in the Blue Grass, but after a closer look, he actually ran as fast as PaddyO for the opening 1/2 (mph), and he\'s better from off the pace. Fellow poster big18741 made a pretty good case for why this guy could clunk up for a piece here. Good inside post, and a good jock imo. I\'ve been on Pletcher all spring, and I can\'t find much of a reason to jump ship now.

I really don\'t have a strong view below, as a lot of them look similar, but I now see this as SS and Aik. If LAL beats me at low odds, well, I don\'t think I\'ll be jumping off any bridges.

[mjellish]

Agree with a lot of what you said Michael.

Lucky\'s Rebel is the second fastest fig in this race.  That was his first off a layoff and first on dirt.  He also had trouble in that race.  He\'s had trouble in every race since as well.

I\'m of the opinion that horses that always get bad trips are usually going to get them again.  The best horses usually overcome trouble.  But Lucky has had some serious trouble his past two.  I know he came out of the Rebel.  He looked to me to be all out in the derby.  No Baffert 4F blowout between Derby and Preakness is a negative.  Neutral looking gallops.  And when Baffert is feeling confident he usually isn\'t shy about it.

With Aik, SD, YT and NG inside him, and with Paddy to his outside, LAL should be able to get a 2W trip into the first turn.  Can\'t say the same for SS as with his style he will get caught wide or have to gun it or drop further back than he probably wants to.  With Calvin on board I\'m thinking he guns it, and that means wide trip or lots of early energy.  Sets up much better for Lucky.  Wish I knew his condition for sure.

[Lost Cause]

My guess is the owner is forcing the switch from Gomez and forcing Baffert into the race.  Hence why you have a different training pattern and no Baffert talk on him.  I can\'t understand why this horse is here instead of waiting for the Belmont.  Still dangerous in here but would have been much more dangerous with rest going into the Belmont.

[richiebee]

One possible interpretation of Baffert\'s light training of Lucky is that he is
teasing him a bit in the AM.

I would not be surprised to see this colt in the early mix in what has been
described by others as a paceless race.

I will be using Jackson Bend in the horizontal wagers (including the Blackeyed
Preakness double) but this is basically by default; he ran second to Eskendreya
twice, and the more I see of this 3YO crap, er I mean crop, Eskie was a man
amongst boys. Also in the mix will be Schoolyard Dreams who has shown
consistency while campaigning at Tampa and Philly. These are very tepid votes
in a field of 3YOs who IMO must improve drastically to factor against older
horses later in the year.

In the aforementioned Double, my value will come from throwing out the two
favorites, Tidal Pool and No Such Word. Will be using Seeking the Title and
Acting Happy, each of whom should like the 9 furlong distance of the BES. My
key might be Harissa, also bred for the longer distances, who kept very good
company in her California races (Crisp and Evening Jewel need no intro; Cozi
Rosie, who Harissa ran second to, came back to win the G3 Senorita on May 2).

[RICH]

mike, you mentioned the gallop out on SD, an how you wish it was better. I know you have some lookers on track. However, can you expound on that, and the fact that that you would put so much weight on that, not knowing trainer intent and given the nice pattern. I still think he has a great shot.

[mjellish]

Depends on the horse.  Sometimes that\'s how they work, just shut down right after the wire.  Sometimes they keep going.  Sometimes the trainer wants them to keep going, and sometimes they don\'t.

For this horse, when he was in Florida, he would gallop out very well.  In fact, that\'s a big part of why I liked him so much for the Tampa Derby.  Someone I know and trust caught him going 47.52, which is fast for Tampa and was a bullet 1/66, and he galloped out to 5F in about 13 flat.  That indicates to me that the horse had lots of energy left even after this bullet work.

In his last work, he went fast again in 59.7 but galloped out another 1/8th in about 15 seconds.  That means he really shut down soon after the work.

Like I said, it doesn\'t necessarily give me any reason to get off of him as for all I know that is exactly what the trainer wanted.  It\'s more a lack of a positive that I wish I had, which would make me more confident.

I pay alot of attention to how horses work though.  I think it means more than the numbers.  If I see a horse\'s pattern say bounce but know he is training lights out, I will tend to discard the pattern.  Same thing the other way.  If the pattern says New Top but I see lackluster works, then I take that into consideration as well.  I have to trust my eyes more than the numbers, right...

There are such things as good and bad work horses though, so you have to keep the individual horse in mind.  I know this guy galloped out strong in FL, so I am more wondering why he didn\'t out East.  Maybe he didn\'t really like the track.  maybe the trainer told the jock to pull him up fast because he didn\'t want the horse to do too much.  All I have is the times and the guy I got them from said he didn\'t see the jock trying to pull the horse up, but they stood up right at the wire and certainly didn\'t ask him for any type of gallop.

It\'s also tough getting any solid info out of this guy\'s barn other than the usual pre-race banter.  The whole crew is keeping things close to the vest.

I\'m going to use him though, and pretty strongly.

[RICH]

Thanks Mike, that said it all good luck, I appreciate it

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MJ,
>
> I read your post twice and I came to the same
> conclusion.  It reads like the epitome of a \"pass\"
> race for you!!  Tough to pass a Triple Crown race,
> at least for me.  i am not that disciplined.
>
> I am going to dabble in the Black-Eyed Susans -
> Preakness double, since I did so well there last
> year.  Singled the winner of the Susans with 7
> horses in the Preakness (weighted), none of them
> named Rachel Alexander.....
>
> Like a lot on this board, I think Tidal Pool is a
> bet against off the two weeks rest, racing on a
> dead rail.  I am going to key two horses that are
> a little slow, but have room for improvement, get
> some weight, and have inside posts.  Seeking the
> Title (apologies to Michael D if I mush your
> horse)


Yep, you mushed her Jim. Looks like both fillies are ok, thank god. Hope the two jocks had the same luck. That looked ugly.

Good call on AH. Some nice prices locked in there. I have a bit of AH/SS, though the majority of my double money went down with the filly.  

And good call drbillym. Good luck tomorrow.



> and Acting Happy.  They are 5-1 and 10-1,
> respectively, although I am betting that Seeking
> the Title goes off less than that.
>
> I am going to take the view that Super SAver moved
> up on the wet track in the Derby and that
> Baffert\'s handling of Lookin at Lucky since the
> Derby smells of concern that he has a tired horse.
>  If I am right about those two things, the race is
> WIDE OPEN.  As such, I will use a 2 by 3 DD ticket
> with Aikenite, Schoolyard Dreams and Yawanna
> Twist, weighted with 50% on Schoolyard Dreams and
> 25% each on Aikenite and Yawanna.  
>
> As MJ mentioned, Schoolyard dreams has only
> developed 2 points from his 2 year old top, had a
> excuse in the wood, and gets rest into this.  A
> new top is definitely possible and he gets a nice
> inside post.  I actually think that because of the
> lack of a true frontrunner, we might see MORE
> early action in the race heading into the first
> turn.  The Lukas horse should be sent, Dutrow
> might have Yawanna sent, Jackson Bend might get
> sent and Caracortado could be sent for position.
> I want the nice inside post with a tuck right
> after the start for Schoolyard Dreams.  I think I
> get 12-1 or so.
>
> Good luck everybody

[jimbo66]

Thanks Michael,

I couldn\'t believe how hard Seeking the Title was bet.  I knew she wouldn\'t be 5-1, but I thought 7-2 or so.  Hard to know for sure, but she didn\'t look good even before the incident as Kent was starting to scrub on her to get her to keep up.

When I saw the generous odds with acting happy, I spread a little wider.  I have \"deja vu all over again\" as I am live for some doubles with 6 different horses, none of them the favorites.  I have good scores to the 1, 2, 5, 10, 11 and 12.  Half the field.  

I say deja vu, because I was live to half the field last year with a single in the Susan\'s, then played the pick-4 on Preakness day, singling Ravalo, which had me live to the entire field in the Preakness except Rachel and Take the Points.  Well, at least there is no Rachel this year.  PLus, I am not singling Ravalo this year, although I will use him again.

Good luck.

Jim