Mott and Shug- what race were they watching

[MO]

Hmmm.......23 and 4 for the first quarter, 23 and 1 for the 2nd; 23 and 1 for the 3rd.
Three horses necks apart for 3/4\'s and there was no pace?? Just what race were Mott and Shug watching? There was no LATE PACE as they came home in 25 flat and 13 and 2 for the last 1/8, but 110 and 1 for 3/4 is hardly pedestrian.

MO

[nunzio]

Mark,

I think sometimes the fans give these guys
too much credit.  They are both excellent horsemen so don\'t get me wrong.  Race analysis is another story.  This is an \"excuse\" business and very rarely will
you hear a trainer give an HONEST response to
why his horse got beat.  

I don\'t what you think but I beleive Pat Day
won this race going into the 1st turn when he
asked Buddah to squeeze thru a tight spot
and get into position to eyeball Frankel\'s horse from the 7/8 pole home.  If you look at the replay, you\'ll see that Day never really hit the horse til he was headed slightly inside the 1/8 pole.  It was a
masterful ride and it looked like he knew
he had alot of horse left.  

With that said, Sunday Break looked like he was sitting in the catbirds seat the whole way & he couldn\'t get by despite being
ridden much harder than Buddah was.

I think Saarland is too much of a plodder that really doesn\'t have a quick enough turn of foot at the finish of the race to be
a threat in the Derby.

Nunzio

[MO]

Thanks. I\'ve always been of the belief than trainers would rather be right than win.
Agree totally with you about Day\'s ride.
What did you think about Pincay at the wire? Looked like his knees went out or the saddle slipped? Didn\'t look \"pretty\'.
Also agree with you about Sunday Break.

MO

[nunzio]

Mark,

Missed the Pincay blooper, I\'ll go back & watch the replay.  I hope I\'m in as good of shape as he is when I get to that age.

Nunzio

PS  Harlans Holiday looked like he could
    have won by a pole had he been asked.
    Very deceptively good race.

[HP]

If you liked Saarland going in, you should be happy. He\'s in a position to fire his best shot at a price. Time to wait for the figures. I\'m not sure what to think yet. There will be an honest pace in the Derby (as usual), so I figure that\'s one less thing to worry about.

As for trainer comments, do yourself a favor and stop listening. What can you draw for this? They thought the pace was slow. So what? As close to a meaningless comment as I can imagine. If you think Saarland is a one-paced plodder, nothing you saw yesterday or anything Shug said would change your mind. Looked like a fair tune-up to me. I would not expect the same result if Buddha and Medaglia do that again. HP

[Michael D.]

25 mph headwind heading home. Go out jogging one day in 25 mph wind and see the difference between going out and coming home. Adjusting for the conditions, the pace was rather slow.

[HP]

Doesn\'t this mean they had the strong wind at their backs for a substantial part of the race? Sorry, but I think O\'Keefe\'s post at the beginning of this thread makes more sense. HP

[fastspeed]

yes, they had the wind at their back early when it looks like they were going fast.  and on their face at the end when it looks like they were going slow....is it really that hard ?

[MO]

Lets wait for the figures. If you read the DRF today concerning Mott on Wood day, it was obvious he was on the rag that day.
My point is that there was no speed bias that day and the fact that the top three ran head to head from the top of the stretch to the finish and Saarland couldn\'t get them, well then, in theory Saarland has no excuse, and should be viewed as a \"no shot\" in the Derby. But, let\'s wait for the fgures.

BTW, with all these negative factors (breeding or too slow) surrounding so many \"contenders\" this year, it might be worth it to try this approach:

Throw breeding out the window. Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Monarchos were not supposed to win based on their breeding. Horses today are bred for speed, not stamina. Thunder Gulch was by a sprinter/miler. Real Quiet didn\'t even qualify on dosage and got beat by 3 different horses in New Mexico. Monarchos was by Marias Mon, a sprinter/miler with physical problems. Charismatic - come on.

So, with Came Home and Harlans Holiday probably already peaked out and Saarland a non-contender based on the Wood, that leaves one other horse if you follow the dual qualifier system, which, mathamatically over the years is a sound approach to picking the winner. (HH not a dual qualifier, but will be favored).

That leaves us with Johannesburg.
2 yo \"jinx\", breeding, got beat by filly getting wieght- no shot, right?
Think again. He has room to improve and was way better than these at Belmont. The 2 yo jinx has to be broken some time, and if we toss the \"Hennesey\" angle and realize that Johan still is a dual qualifier, well he looks as good as any.If he developed physically, he could be the one, and maybe at a price. MO

[Michael D.]

Aqueduct 1 1/8 race = short run to the back stretch, long run down the back stretch, short turn to the stretch, long stretch. with a 25 mph wind going directly with the back stretch run, and directly against the stretch run, you can toss out the fractional times completely. I think the pace was moderate to slow..... but I guess it\'s all just a matter of opinion.

[HP]

To fastspeed - Yes, it\'s that hard. I left my weathervane at home.

To O\'Keefe - I agree on bias. Disagree on Saarland. If Johannesburg wins the Derby I\'ll buy you...a beer. I say no way. A mile and a quarter isn\'t a mile and a sixteenth. Not off one prep. Even against a \'weak\' field (which I\'m waiting to hear soon from someone), no way.

To Downey - I\'d call the pace square, and moderate sounds good too. One ten and change for six furlongs at Aqueduct isn\'t slow.

I guess I\'m starting to look forward to the First Derby Entries edition. Looks like a competitive race with a few bad short priced horses. HP