ok, I did a little more homework, this time on syn to dirt

[covelj70]

after my Derby archive exercise last week where I found that Pletcher\'s runners have the same top/pair/off/x distribution as all Derby runners, I went back today and looked at how Derby runners for the last 3 years have fared going synthetic to dirt int he Derby.

I broke it into two categories, 1 category is if the final prep was on poly but the horse had previously run on dirt at least once.

16 horses in total have done that since 2007

1 new top (hard spun), 4 pairs (including Street Sense), 4 off and 7 \"X\"

So bottom line is that prepping on synthetic after a dirt campaign doesn\'t help

There have only been 6 horses that have tried dirt for the first time in the Derby so it\'s a small sample size so tough to draw any conclusions but....one thing to note is that only 1 of them has run a new top (Pioneer of the Nile last year).  2 others have paired, 1 was \"off\" (Chocolate Candy by Sydney\'s Candy sire) and 2 were \"X\".

In all, only 2 out of 22 runners have run new tops in the Derby if the final prep was on synthetic so I think the idea that alot of people are playing the synthetic figures as too slow or producing a big more forward (at least in the Derby) is wrong.

Sorry to all of the SC\'s fans who want to assume he jumps up big time first time dirt but the numbers don\'t support this view.

[analizethis]

Thanks for the insight and the effort.

[TGJB]

More to come on this if that volcano ever knocks it off-- George is stuck in England.

[nyc1347]

You should see the staggering percentage numbers of horses who prep on dirt and then run in the breeders cup the next race on synthetic surface...its something like 0 for 40.. craziness.  

I think POTN ran last year cause it was Baffert.   He had him prime to go and they still lost to MTB.  Look at the similarity between the 3 prep races with POTN then the derby then next race out.. and compare that pattern to Sinister Minister!  SAME THING...   SM:  Top, back, top, explode then BOUNCE.. then again with POTN: Top, back, Top, Explode, BOUNCE.    Different surfaces...same outcome.

[slewzapper]

Thanks for the info.

Despite the small sample size, those numbers match the total historical average for all horses (1/3 pair/top, 2/3 off/X). Atypical Thoro-pattern for a race where presumably most horses are pointed to for a peak performance, no? Must be other factors in play.

Over the past few years, I don\'t recall the big jump ups of AW runners first time dirt at CD as much as other tracks. Is it the \"Beware of Drug Testing\" sign they post at the stable gate?