Distance NOT a factor in the derby/ Leamas-Mjellish

[nyc1347]

give me a break with this distance thing please..


2009 Derby:

MTB -  Forged forward then again.. won
POTN - NEW TOP
Musket - only 1 point regression off a negative top last out!
papa clem -  1 point regression off new top last out
Choc candy -  paired derby effort and only 1 point from his best effort ever
summer bird - 1 point regression off new top effort last out
join dance - pair last out which was a bounce to a new top 2 back.. right in line and more significant that he only went .25 points back off a bounce which meant the distance meant nothing.
RR - bounce off a top, circle to a top then bounce pattern.. right in line with his pattern AND STILL second fastest effort ever.


2008 derby -

big brown -  forged forward new top
8bell -  top effort right in line
denis of cork - second best effort ever that day
ekati - second best effort ever off a bounce
recapture - 2 point NEW TOP runs fifth!
colonel john - paired top
anak nakal - second best effort ever off a bounce
coyboy cal - 1 point slower than top effort
z fortune - bounce to a 6 but it was off a negative effort.. he bounced the same thing running a 2.. distance meant NOTHING it was the top figure that led to the bad race

EVERYTHING IS IN LINE WITH THESE HORSES!!!


I can go on and on guys.. come on geeez... these comments that are being made about distance is REDIC and THEY ALL carry 126 which is consistent and theres no edge for any horse so its not a variable within a horses ability.  I can also add the idea of our negative number %s to even make a case that a horse will bounce a huge % of the time going into the derby after jumping up mutilple points the race before to state a point about distance not being the factor but rather rest.

[nyc1347]

AND THE 2007 DERBY HAS 12 HORSES IN LINE..maNY with top efforts!  WITH 4 HUGE BOUNCES off no rest or top multi point efforts... u cant make this stuff up!

[Leamas57]

NYC:

I admire that you think independently; in a game where you bet against the crowd, that\'s a very big edge. I see where you come from, but that last furlong is a killer. I win races all the time at 6 1/2 furlongs because the speed can\'t make that last half-panel.

I am not completely disagreeing with you, but for a speed horse to carry it that far, it has to be a special animal. I think Hard Spun might have been one of the most underrated horses of recent years because he could cruise at a high rate of speed for a long ways. God Bless Larry Jones, but I think that horse should have won even more races than he did.

Leamas.

[nyc1347]

every situation is different.  a horse like hard spun was pretty consistent at a high level.. he COULDVE won more races IF horses like street sense, curlin, etc (who were faster overall) werent his opponents.  The fact is that Hard Spun, even when he did lose, could get the distance! Best example is the derby where he ran his best effort at the time.. ONE faster horse beat him. When u compare him to that crop overall he was a superb horse.  Distance was never an issue for this horse.  

I really think something that goes under-rated is the perspective on how a race lays out in general. Hard spun or any speed horse or closer is a good example.  In a shorter race theres more likely to be faster fractions and much different scenarios then longer ones.  Blind Luck has recently run great against horses going ONE turn closing and winning but at 2 turns the adjustment had to be made within the horse. As much as she finally flew down that stretch in her 2 turn race she still lost the race.   If that race was a bit longer it doesnt mean she would have won though.. the idea is the there would have been a completely different situation and set up going longer for other horses as well as her... its equal.. so all we can go by is the thoro number to determine who should win that race within a horses pattern.


If a horse is racing consistent neg 2s as an example at 9F and is going 10F today and we are handicapping we have to assume for the most part that going two turns and the extra 1F the horse will run about the same and should beat horses who are running consistent 1s or slower..especially at this top level.. There are many other factors to considered but the idea is that a neg 2 effort will beat a 1 effort.. thats why we buy the thorographs. Hard Spun as well as many others have done this and run their top efforts derby day within their respected lines(as you can see with my example) sooo many times and DISTANCE or the extra 1F meant nothing.. what mattered was that the horses they were racing against were faster than them overall and those horses were beaten based on that (or of course ground loss, tu, etc..) alone.  There are even MORE examples like summer bird, curlin, etc as weve mentioned before who improved even more over time and eventually developed to become champions in time... once again ALL of these horses have something in common and that is they go all go TWO turns.. once that is established the faster horses usually take the cake.

[mjellish]

Fair enough NYC.  You are entitled to your opinion.  Like I said, I don\'t think you will change your mind about this so I don\'t really see the point in debating this much further with you.

Here\'s a suggestion though.  If you really believe what you are saying, and I think you do, then print what you have written here and go down to the backside of your local circuit.  Walk around and talk to a few trainers that you happen to respect.  Hell, a fair amount of these guys use sheets.  Find them.  Then just hand them what you have written here about distance and patterns.  In fact, you probably could just hand them the subject line of this post.  See what they have to say about your theory of distance being irrelevant in the Derby.

If you don\'t want to do that, then print what you have written here about distance being irrelevant and save it.  Hang it up with a tack above your handi- capsule.  Keep notes on it with regards to every wager you make over the next two years at 1 1/4 and beyond that is based on pattern without regard to distance.  Let\'s see what your ROI turns out to be.  As primarily a show better, I will contend that you are going to lose a whole bunch of money because you have to be right much more often than wrong, and you won\'t be.

The horse racing landscape is filled with horses that were brilliant at 1 1/16 around 2 turns or 1 1/8 but wound up fading at 1 1/4 and beyond.  Why do you think the KY Derby is going to be the first and last time many of these horses ever try 1 1/4?

[nyc1347]

I understand where you are coming from but once again these horses will not run that distance because horse racing in general does not push 10F unless its the BEST horses in the nation!  And that is THIS scenario with the Derby.. why do you think so many still run just around their tops on derby day?   Trainers in general (as time goes on) wont prep a horse to go the 10F cause hes simply not fast enough to compete... remember that the slower horses who CANNOT run at 10F (derby, classic, etc) run at a lower race purses with a shorter distance as a whole against slower horses overall. A horse like Sam P.  who ran a 3 point new top Derby Day (who ran 9th that day) would need to STILL improve another 4 points MORE just to be some kind of a factor in a classic type race.  THAT task is pretty hard especially at a consistent level so trainers point horses like that elsewhere and its NOT because of distance...its because of the horses individual capabilities.  

THe fact is these horses CAN get the distance BUT CANNOT get the WINNING distance EFFORT against FASTER horses..  SO they train and run at lower distances.   When we have 20 - 3 year olds in a race bouncing, regressing, improving, developing, etc.. DISTANCE is NOT a factor because they have ALL proved that can run within their capabilities going long already.. its a matter of who is going to run fresh that specific day AND  a top winning effort compared to the field.

[alm]

Very interesting set of posts.  Both of you make important points.  Here is something for you both to reflect on.

Pleasant Tap raced at 9 and 10 furlongs in California (two turns always) and could rarely finish a race strongly.  Placed a lot.

Moved to NY, to Belmont in particular, he was deadly at 9 and 10 furlongs (only one turn.)  Why?

Track surfaces?  Maybe, but this was before poly on the West Coast.  Competition?  Maybe, but it was usually in graded company both coasts.  Better pharma?  I doubt it, because I think both places had similar if not identical rules at the time.

[mjellish]

I\'ve made my point, you\'ve made yours.  I guess all I have to say NYC is you bet it your way, I\'ll bet it mine.

[jbelfior]

Re: Pleasant Tap at Belmont......one turn, faster pace, fewer lead changes.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[nyc1347]

If im not mistaken PT ran 2 second places out in Cali and they were in big Breeders Cup races soooo its clearly the competition the horse was running against.  He was running against faster horses.  Surface was the same and i can pretty much guarantee his efforts were perfectly in line with each other that allowed him get that distance and still be a factor with no problems.  Once again ALL those horses are in a category where they can get the two turns so its not a question of distance its a question of individual capabilities and how fast they are.

[Ill-bred]

There are numerous distance thresholds that can make a difference in the outcome of a horse race. I\'d consider the biggest one to be the increase to 12f.

But as stated by other posters, something as subtle as going from 6f to 6.5f or 7f can make a difference for some horses.

As does one turn to two turns. And yes, going from from 8.5f or 9f to the Kentucky Derby distance of 10f further sorts the horses on staying ability.

Is this even debatable?

[marcus]

This is all very interesting - thanks , but my limited experience and gut read tells me generally that \"distance\" in any races \"other \" than the 1 1/4 mile Derby probably is less a factor  . With so many x factors in the kdx , even just how the race is run imo is an influence on the result  . Now if they only bred horses to get the distance as well as good trips and good timing     .. .

[albany]

I wonder what Bob Hayes\' pattern looked like going into mile races? I\'m guessing pretty good.

[P-Dub]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There are numerous distance thresholds that can
> make a difference in the outcome of a horse race.
> I\'d consider the biggest one to be the increase to
> 12f.
>
> But as stated by other posters, something as
> subtle as going from 6f to 6.5f or 7f can make a
> difference for some horses.
>
> As does one turn to two turns. And yes, going from
> from 8.5f or 9f to the Kentucky Derby distance of
> 10f further sorts the horses on staying ability.
>
> Is this even debatable?


It is to at least 1 person.

If horses can be affected going from 5.5 to 6 to 6.5 to 7 furlongs...why wouldn\'t anyone think going from 1 mile to the various distance changes up to 1 1/4 affect them also??

Perhaps horses bounce in the Derby because they can\'t run as well at that distance.  The distance limitations that they have, causing a substandard peformance, plays a role in a \"bounce\".

[smalltimer]

Assuming you\'re referring to former receiver Bob Hayes.  Unrelated, but I love this comment from a former football coach at the University of Nebraska.

In the 70\'s a kid at the Univ of Nebraska won, at the time, the Big 8 championship in the half mile race.  He then tried out for the football team.  When they asked Coach Tom Osborne how this kid was coming along, he said, \"he\'s gonna be real dangerous when we get in those 3rd down and a half mile situations.\"

I still think that\'s funny to this day.