Anybody notice that Zenyatta is running tomorrow??

[Lost Cause]

Back on dirt, Looks like her main threat is going to be Just Jenda who I will probably be keying.  She will get the first jump around the turn on Z open up a couple of lengths while Z I hope tries to come wide on that track and hopefully runs out of real estate..

[Leamas57]

How wide can you go in a race with four other horses?

Leamas

[Leamas57]

Sorry, LC; I didn\'t mean to a smartass...

I looked at this and thought War Echo is the better upset chance as she beat JJ last time and JJ adds five lbs from that last. I will grant you the layoff for JJ figured then and she will be tougher this time, but either way  this track would need to be very fast and somebody would need to make a pretty big move forward if Z shows up.

Leamas.

[Lost Cause]

Leamas57 Wrote:
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> Sorry, LC; I didn\'t mean to a smartass...
>
> I looked at this and thought War Echo is the
> better upset chance as she beat JJ last time and
> JJ adds five lbs from that last. I will grant you
> the layoff for JJ figured then and she will be
> tougher this time, but either way  this track
> would need to be very fast and somebody would need
> to make a pretty big move forward if Z shows up.
>
> Leamas.

I probably deserve that comment..I agree with you on the wide comment, will probably go 3 wide but that\'s not really that serious..I\'m still hoping for a situation where she has to catch that horse in front of her and she just falls short..

[P-Dub]

I was at Del Mar the day Cigar lost.  Had a nice win ticket on Dare And Go. Didn\'t enjoy cashing it and it was a good one. Well, it was nice to watch the clerk peel off bills and lay them out in front of me, but it was a joyless experience.  I wanted to see history.  At least that one paid 80 bucks to win.

What are you guys gonna cash if you beat her?? 10-1 or so?? Maybe.  War Echo is 7/2 and JJ is 3/1 on the ML. And how confident are you that she will lose?? Are you really going to put a sizeable wager against her tomorrow?? Probably not.

So you can hope to beat her and pick up some pocket change, or hope she wins and continues her streak, hopefully staying unbeaten until her matchup with Rachel.

I\'m not trying to sound like a jerk, honest, but if you really want to beat her you can probably pick a better spot down the line. Also, it continues the buzz for the inevitable matchup with Rachel.

Having said all that, I probably put the jinx on her and you guys should unload. Hopefully not.  

How confident are you guys that she can be beaten, and do you think the risk justifies the reward??  I\'ve tried beating her and Rachel, I\'m a bit poorer for it. If there comes a day she loses, I don\'t have to be there to cash.

A $30 horse on a Wednesday afternoon is nice too.

[Lost Cause]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> I was at Del Mar the day Cigar lost.  Had a nice
> win ticket on Dare And Go. Didn\'t enjoy cashing it
> and it was a good one. Well, it was nice to watch
> the clerk peel off bills and lay them out in front
> of me, but it was a joyless experience.  I wanted
> to see history.  At least that one paid 80 bucks
> to win.
>
How many times did you try to beat Cigar before that race?  Was that the one and only time?
I have played against Zenyatta twice and that was the classic last year and the OP race when she was still relatively unknown.  Other than that I have played her pretty much as a key in my P6\'s and P4\'s.  I only try to bet against horses like her if there is some angle I can find.  I\'m not playing win bets on Just Jenda @ 4/1;  I will be keying up in P4\'s as beating Z in that leg will cause some big payouts.

I also think Custom for Carlos can get beat in that count fleet stakes as the fave to start the P4.  There will be a lot of speed there to soften him up.  I think the Borel horse will run by them in the stretch.

In the end I could be wrong but that\'s why it\'s called gambling.

[Leamas57]

P-Dub:

I would either single her in the pick-4 on most tickets and use the upset bet to hedge or add one horse (on one ticket) just in case.

I agree, the field\'s too small, but I have to belived she will be 1:5 or 1:9. If she\'s 1:9, then the four others could each be 20:1. It was more of a discussion that a suggestion.

Thanks,

Leamas

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> How confident are you guys that she can be beaten,
> and do you think the risk justifies the reward??

A complete exercise in futility, trying to beat Z today.
 
If something stupid happens and she loses today, no one will want to come out here
and crow about how they \"had it\", for we will instantly know who is in the elite group
of \"Racing\'s Biggest Suckers\".

Watch and enjoy her greatness, without a wager of any sort, is my humble suggestion.

I\'ve consulted the Official Rules of Wagering, and as it turns out, we are free to pass a race
without making a bet. Who knew?  

[Uncle Buck]

Yes indeed. The slowish-figure \"special surface\" specialist gets on good old dirt today. The stretch run will be interesting. Too bad Jess Jackson called an audible.

Speaking of special surfaces, I\'m told by his owner that Paddy O\' Prado is feeling quite good and should be considered in tomorrow\'s BG stakes exotics. Wearing the lucky #7 saddle cloth too!

Good luck all.

[sekrah]

> If something stupid happens and she loses today,
> no one will want to come out here
> and crow about how they \"had it\", for we will
> instantly know who is in the elite group
> of \"Racing\'s Biggest Suckers\".

WTF is this crap?   You\'re a sucker if you bet against a 1-9 favorite?  Who knew.  I guess the word \"underlay\" isn\'t a term in your household.

[P-Dub]

Lost,

Not many, because I thought he would win those others and I wasn\'t at the track for many of them.  Did hit the 1995 Classic keying him over Unaccounted For?? or some other bomb that was a nice TG play.  Tri played decent, another 5-1 shot ran 3rd forget who. Played against him at DM becasue I was there, thought DAG was a legitimate threat, and I would get paid off if correct. And I liked rooting for him so wasn\'t inclined to bet against him very often.

Can\'t disagree with taking a shot in multi bets, as long as the ticket isn\'t too large. Good luck with those bets if you do happen to be correct today.

Leamas,

Agree with your plan, good luck today.

Rick B,

\"Watch and enjoy her greatness, without a wager of any sort, is my humble suggestion.\"

I like this best, hoping for another win and will be rooting for her.......just like I root for Rachel when she runs despite my affinity for Z. I am the resident Z supoorter, but have never rooted against Rachel. I enjoy watching them both perform.

Wow Rick, I actually agree with you on something. Enjoy the race today.

[Boscar Obarra]

Just because she MAY be an underlay, doesn\'t mean there\'s an overlay to bet.

sekrah Wrote:
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> > If something stupid happens and she loses
> today,
> > no one will want to come out here
> > and crow about how they \"had it\", for we will
> > instantly know who is in the elite group
> > of \"Racing\'s Biggest Suckers\".
>
> WTF is this crap?   You\'re a sucker if you bet
> against a 1-9 favorite?  Who knew.  I guess the
> word \"underlay\" isn\'t a term in your household.

[Rick B.]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WTF is this crap?   You\'re a sucker if you bet
> against a 1-9 favorite?  Who knew.  I guess the
> word \"underlay\" isn\'t a term in your household.

Not true. Some things just aren\'t worth a bet. Don\'t get your drawers in a bunch over it.

For the record, I won\'t be betting against the sun coming up tomorrow, either -- even though I\'m getting a tremendous overlay on The End Of The World As We Know It.

[JimP]

Sometimes 1-9 is an overlay.

[Lost Cause]

I got to stop drinking when I handicap..