Santa Anita Derby 2010

[Dana666]

1-Posse Power: I\'m fond of this little, hard trying colt. He\'ll be huge odds today and may well sneak into the exotics - I believe he will run a new top today.

2-Thomas Baines: Has rally come to hand in recent weeks and has never looked better; that being said, he loses Bejarano, and is hoping for a minor placing coming off his big move forward in last - maybe he pairs up and hits the board?

3-Who\'s Up: Not sure what\'s coming off the long layoff - seems like a tough spot to debut; did show promise as a 2 year old. Not really my type of play though.

4-Sidney\'s Candy: Nice colt to be sure, and his speed will be a huge advantage in this race, and I can almost guarantee he will break through and run a new top today. He\'s still maturing and seems very promising. Can he beat the big horse in here though?

5-Setsuko: Can certainly run all day, and Bejarano chose him, no big surprise there. He is a bit one-paced though. A tricky read on the sheets;, he should move forward for sure, but his lack of speed may compromise his chances here, and even if he does move forward, it may not be enough. A tough read for me.

6-Caracortado: The little Cal-Bred that could. He\'s probably done maturing for now, and I don\'t see him as a threat in here; hopefully, they won\'t be stupid enough to run in the triple crown races (where he has zero shot) and ruin him completely when there are a lot of good money Cal-Bred races down the line. Hopefully.

7-Lookin At Lucky: Not much else to say. He\'ll be 1-5 in here, so not sure you can make any money. I guess you could argue he doesn\'t need to win this, but I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which he doesn\'t win. He\'s the class of his generation, and the Derby/Triple crown goes through him in my opinion. Should be a fairly easy prep for him, and hopefully he explodes forward in the Yum Brands Derby.

8-Cardiff Giant: has often fooled me and run better than my expectations. I just don\'t see him as a serious threat in here.

9-Skipshot: Been getting better and better since Hollendofer took over; game sort does try very hard. Has he reached the summit of his abilities for now? Probably. If he paired up could he get in the money? Maybe.

10-Alphie\'s Bet: He\'d be a big bet against for me. Bad post and he\'ll have to pass them all in a race that doesn\'t usually favor closers, even on synthetic. I couldn\'t see him as a serious threat in this race.

Not sure if you can make any money in this race. maybe consider betting Lucky over Sidney\'s candy and use a few behind and hammer the supers, which usually pay well in this kind of a race. I would consider Posse Power underneath at huge odds. Good race to watch anyway. Good luck friends.

[Dana666]

Well, I was sure right about Sidney\'s new top, but I wouldn\'t use the excuse of Lucky\'s trouble either; he wasn\'t beating Sidney either way, and I didn\'t really like the way he looked in the PP - he seemed a little stiff and a bit skinny, like he isn\'t really thriving like he had looked in his earlier races. I guess we\'ll see how he comes up to the Derby, and I wouldn\'t jump off him yet, though one has to say Esky looked rather imposing in the Wood. Yeah, it was a weak field (but was it weaker than this field, probably not) but you have to like the way he won - he now moves to the top of the class in my book - like he\'s suddenly bloomed at the right time. In any event the price will be much higher on Lucky if you still like him - I\'d say around 10-1 or higher on Derby Day.

[jack72906]

Great call on SC Dana. 10-1 on LAL would be nice, but man, this horse seems to always find trouble. I\'m sure he\'ll find more in a 20 horse field.

[Silver Charm]

There is the Baffert Premium and the excuse of trouble. You will not get 10-1 of Lucky.

We know he can beat Nobles Promise but what about Sydneys Candy? Maybe they were looking for a rail skimming Real Quiet SA Derby effort today and the trouble derailed them.

Esky went in 149:95 and the Excelsior went in 151:43. This will be in the 108 Beyer range. Any kind of repeat and not on his best day is Lucky gonna run this galloper down.

[Dana666]

Forget about Lucky\'s best day, today he didn\'t look as good physically as he had, and that\'s the more troubling aspect. Not winning the prep isn\'t a big deal, but you want a horse who\'s flourishing, and right now Lucky is not in my opinion. Comparing him with Esky today anyway and they\'re not in the same league. Esky looked healthy and happy and all muscled out, and Lucky looked a little drawn and stiff like he\'s on the downside. I said in a way earlier post, the only downside to Lucky was that he matured so early, and someone else could step up and over-take him and now that has happened. And I believe you will get around ten to one in the Derby. One bad performance and everybody jumps off, Baffert or no Baffert.

[ajkreider]

Looked like Esky was hand-ridden all the way around.  

The horse that ran second in the SA derby looks interesting to pick up the pieces at the bottom of the super in the Derby.

[miff]

Shame the over rated,lack of quick, LAL got stopped on the fence yesterday in the SA derby.Had no shot of beating SC but a clean run to the wire would have made him a much shorter price in the derby.Pace scenario in the derby looking on the fast side.

Escy being coronated early and will embarrass this group unless he does not get there right.Can hear the nay sayers already re \"points of development\" and spacing for Escy but he does not lay his body down in his races(yesterday \"ran app 5/16ths of a mile). Escy ran another new top, probably in the TG minus -1-2 area after outrunning tough older horses by app 6 lengths carrying 6 more lbs(one race earlier)

Unless someone shows up big from now until the derby,you\'ll be targeting like a 7-5 shot on May 1st.


Mike

[Wrongly]

Mike

No way he\'s 7/5, much more like 3/1 with LaL 5/1 and then a big bunch at 10-12/1.

[miff]

Wrong,

Not a remote chance Escy is 3-1 unless something negative happens along the way.


Mike

[richiebee]

Miff:

A 7/5 fave in an overflow field for an 0/26 Derby trainer?

That has got me kind of excited.

[Wrongly]

Mike

Come on, it will be a full field of 20.  Granted Street Sense was the highest at $4.90 but Smarty Jones was $4.10 and Big Brown was $3.40.  3/1 is about right.

[miff]

People bet on horses and hype and he will be all the rage leading up. Last two wins by daylight and main contender bombed.Not saying he\'s worth that short a price but on credentials,accomplishment he towers over these.

Don\'t follow futures, but if there is another pool, he\'d be app 3-1 in a futures pool no less.What did he close pre Wood in the futures?


Mike

[Wrongly]

Mike

Granted.  But it\'s the Derby with the general public pumping money on D. Wayne Lukas or any gray horse.  He\'ll be 5/2 or 3/1.

[miff]

Wrong,

If he trains up right, 3-1 would be stealing.Good luck


Mike

[alm]

I\'d be stunned if ESK goes off higher than 2-1.

Given the results of the preps and excluding the possibility that something phenomenal will happen in the next few weeks, the only bet worth considering AT THIS TIME is LAL straight up.  He may not do it, but I think it is likely that the horse\'s odds will make it worth taking the shot.

I will trust that Baffert will get the horse into the race at a peak, whatever that is.  The SA Derby was not intended to be a peak moment or Baffert wouldn\'t have been so generous and humorous towards Gomez.