Sunland Derby

[Leamas57]

Pretty expense desert race for not being Dubai.

Any thoughts here about TTT and Conveyance and Nacho Friend? Real dog\'s breakfast of background with locals, first-dirts, shippers west, etc.

Conveyance seems a logical winner, but there are some potential upsetters here with some who move forward or take to the surface. Aside from above, you have some talent with 1,5,6, and 7, though not without a little imagination.


Leamas.

[nyc1347]

I have Conveyance regressing and I think that Classical Slew can run very big here.  There may even be a speed dual in this one which would help out even more. Even if Baffert runs in the money this is another that can be about $3.40 to $4 to show easy either way.  If CS runs in and baffert out then this is $5-6 easy. Im putting my $1500 profit from General quarters on Classical Slew to show tomorrow.  Good Luck everyone!

[Leamas57]

Thanks, NYC; I will take a closer look.

With Tyler Baze on him, you run the risk that he will be part of a speed duel. To his credit, though, he fought a horse yesterday that wanted the lead and the discipline brought the horse in at a nice price.

Leamas

[smalltimer]

So you passed on the LA Derby?

[Michael D.]

Don\'t know much about Sunland, but I\'ll give it a shot.


1. Storming Saint - \'8\' top at two, pair last with trouble in the stretch. should break through here, and saves the ground from post 1. bred to get 9f.

2. Nacho Friend - 4 pt top last. three weeks. strong threat on # power, but a bounce is possible.

3. Conveyance - very strong on # power and pattern. good timing. trying something new at minuscule odds is the issue.

4. MJ - slow

5. Endorsement - paired 6.5\'s not enough, but could break through here with 5 weeks. bred to get the extra distance. value at 10-1.

6. Classical Slew - difficult read 1st dirt. 4 pt top last, but nice timing here. bred to get 9f.

7. Fog Alert - tough read 1st dirt. pattern says a new top is coming, but running style conducive to ground loss.

8. Guilt - bit slow.

9. TtT - looking for a 2w run in the \'4\' to \'5\' range. contender, but not a ton of value at 3-1.


I\'ll key on two longshots - Storming Saint and Endorsement.

[Dana666]

Just tell me the Derby winner is NOT coming out of this race this year!

[Leamas57]

Well, there is one horse that is out of Birdstone....

Leamas

[Leamas57]

Nice call on Endorsement!

The Empire Maker Strikes Back...

Leamas

[covelj70]

great call on Endorsement Mike D.  Hope you had him big

[Leamas57]

That horse is bred for 10 panels and if he can move up from Maiden Sp. Wt. to Grade 3 and win, he could be the Cinderella from the Land of Enchantment again!

The track was very fast, but they went 148+ --which is fast anywhere. I bet he gets a pretty good number and if a month is enough time, this guy becomes a legit threat to win in May. Lots of \"ifs\" there, but I love a horse who is lightly raced and still improving in May. Not saying I\'m behind him yet--and we don\'t even know if he\'s going there, but if he goes and can make one more move forward in five weeks, there going to be putting roses on him, not cactus flowers. I am watching this guy very closely now...

Leamas

[nyc1347]

ewww bounce city!  that was not good at all.. and of course conveyance doesnt win as expected.  on to the next one!

[covelj70]

the horse has an absolutely sick female family pedigree.

Funny Cide notwithstanding, I generally don\'t love the Distorted Humors to go the 1 1/4 but when the female family has this kind of stamina, you would have to give him the benefit of the doubt to get the distance.

Now, he likely jumped up to run a good number which makes another new top in 5 weeks in the derby pretty unlikely and he would likely have to move forward again to win the derby but we could be hearing more from this guy as the year goes on ala summer bird who jumped up huge in the arkansas derby and then bounced only slightly in the KY Derby before obviously mounting a great campaign the rest of the year.

[Leamas57]

Thanks, Cov,

I noticed the high Tomlinson, which I need to know more about as it might be taken from the dam side. I had it in my head that the horse was from EM (my bad), but I appreciate your input. Don\'t know why a horse that lightly raced has to bounce from anything, though. As AB or JB or someone in here pointed out recently, the small sample you get makes it harder to establish a pattern.

I agree it\'s a meteoric rise, but wonder what kind of jump that was. Four points?

Leamas

[Dana666]

Well, I\'ll say this, I was a little bit impressed with the winner. Maybe I should open my mind; this was a decent prep race, probably as good as many others so far.
Endorsement has a serious pedigree!
Maybe I\'ll put him on my derby radar after all. I like the way he ran by Conveyance, who hadn\'t let anyone do that thus far. Good spacing too leading up to the derby. perhaps, I need to eat some crow here and upgrade this race.

[Dana666]

Hopefully you can click on pedigree above, and it comes up from the Stallion register.com. I think the link should work. He\'s related to Any Given Saturday, a horse I had a lot of love for. He\'s on my radar for sure.