Florida Derby Time

[TGJB]

First of all, I\'m glad you think it\'s a great question.

Development isn\'t measured from a first out. It\'s measured from the first effort that causes a horse to react. 14-12-10-8 is fitness and learning to run, not development. If the other were true there are lots of horses that would be developing 30 points off bad first outs.

Now, sometimes it\'s right to start counting from a pair-up as the baseline of development, under the theory that a horse had established a level, that he didn\'t immediately go forward from the first one. But it would be silly in this case to do that for Rule, since the pair came in his first two starts, and he marched straight forward thereafter.

So here are the relevant comparisons:

LAL-- stayed basically at the same level for 4 races, made one jump, bounced 3 points to his previous level.

Rule-- moved forward after 2 races, did so again, bounced 2 points, to a figure still better than those prior to his top. (Much better pattern).

LAL-- using your zero figure, had almost 4 points of development from a number that caused a 3 point bounce at two.

Rule-- had one point of development from a 2yo top that caused a 2 point bounce. (Much better).

The unmeasurable variable here is that LAL\'s race was first dirt. If you take that out of the equation (which you can\'t), he would be much more likely to fall apart than be explosive next time.

I would have made Rule about 33/33/33% on top, pair or bounce.

[magicnight]

\"It is one of two reasons why am called Silver Charm.\"

Guessing the other is because you have gray hair, live on hay and oats, and weigh 1,200 pounds?

[nyc1347]

When i personally look at development/improvements I always start at the first race and flow forward.  IF that terrible first race does NOT fall in line with the horses forward pattern.. (ex:   28, 10, 8, 7) i would not count the low 28 effort at all.  I couldnt say that a horse with this specific pattern had 21 points on improvement.. i would say that he had 3 points overall and by him going forward in small steps from the 10, the 28 would be a complete non effort compared to the horses flow.  So I wouldnt count the 28.   A great example of this is Caracortada.  He ran terrible at first and then went to the poly and jumped huge.. then continued to run in line with those efforts.  Plenty of rest allowed him to improve off his previous top and no rest sent this horse to regress again.  This horse I would start from his jump up race and try to establish a pattern as long as he stood on Poly.  That horse doesnt seem to like Dirt too much.. anyways getting back to it..

A horse like Rule that has improved last year the 8 points (from my thinking) with 3-4 months of time from his first start (with everything falling in line) THEN bouncing just a couple points is a really good sign with just 30 days off running at this level BUT having 90 days off and running a 1 effort has to tell me that the 2 effort is a big number for this horse.  To only have 1 point improvement after 3 months off compared to last years improvements of 3 months gives me the thinking that his abilities beyond this level is not likely unless he has 3 months between tops from THIS level.

Even as you use development from the horses first time it bounced ( the 2 effort ),  essentially the horse STILL only improved only ONE full point from that effort with 90 days off.  This is as i stated in previous posts a great sign BUT it took 3 months from last year to only get 1 point and going into the Florida Derby how can u have him %33 to run another top AND %33 to pair?  That doesnt make any sense to me and i respectfully disagree for the Florida Derby race. I had him about huge percentage to throw a couple point regression (as he showed last year and a small percentage to bounce.. nothing else based on rest within the pattern.  NEXT OUT (kentucky derby), is much different.  Im expecting Rule to run about a 1-2 range number because of rest and what he has now shown in 3 consecutive races at THIS level.

Going into BC LAL had only improved 1.5 point.. the 3 point jump to a 3 that day equaled %75 of his overall improvement from day one.. how can we not expect a bounce looking at this today with only 30 days off?  The dirt number in the Rebel seems to have fallen perfectly in line with poly efforts as well as what I am saying with last years pattern.  Im expecting almost %100 chance of improvement from LALs first start this year next out using this point of view.

Im starting to see that I read the thorographs much different than mostly everyone on here.  The main thing is that I let the horse tell me on paper what he should do next out and trust the Thoro number for what it is along with rest and pattern and compare each horse to each other.

[TGJB]

In general I don\'t have a problem with your pattern reading, and you\'re looking at time between races and tops, which is often overlooked and undervalued. Also, any pure sheet discussion here is a plus (especially if I don\'t have to do it), but you need to ratchet down the cockiness several notches-- again, there are pros here.

HOWEVER, on these two--

1-- Forget that \"took 3 months\" thing. Other than pairing the big jump, Rule COULDN\'T have run it sooner since they didn\'t start him sooner. When you are dealing with horses aimed for a target (the Derby), management becomes an issue, and can\'t be held against the horse. This also goes to the question of how wound up they are off the layoff-- small improvement is what they want, it\'s not a negative. Top outfits are not trying to get big tops with Derby contenders now.

2-- LAL had one number better than a 6 1/2 last year, and he bounced badly from it. There\'s no way a number 4 points better than THAT one (and 10 better than his secondary top) could be considered a step towards something else short term, ESPECIALLY when it comes after rest. Horses that run big off layoffs are notorious for falling apart, not for going forward. On top of that, there\'s the synth/dirt one-and-done issue-- a lot of them make the big jump and disappear.

[Silver Charm]

Close on the gray hair and 1,200 lbs, so 2 out of 3 aint bad. And no its \"the other guy\" not me who is the big Meatloaf Fan. Even though he puts on a good show. Meatloaf that is....

On a Beyer Scale he looked explosive. He had run a huge figure in the San Vicente first time out, around a 113. While TG shows no regression next out (see file in the following link) he backed up Beyer wise. The trainer was not happy with his trip, to far back, belated rally, so he switched jockeys. Next race out was the trainer ordered speed duel in the SA Derby with Sharp Cat and then just beaten gamely by Free House. Beyer wise he recovered back to the 113.    

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1997.pdf

So now you have a horse I have been following day-by-day all spring who has an explosive looking line and has just run gamely in the proverbial won the speed duel lost the race angle. Sprinkle in a Pre-Derby CD training pattern that looked erily reminiscent of Sunday Silence and a trainer you could sense was on the cusp of \"my turn\".  

We did a small radio show in Lousville during Derby Week at that time. I GUARANTEED Silver Charm for the win and the COLD Exacta with Captain Bodgit. Free House and maybe one other were to be used underneath in the Tri and HAMMER DOWN on Blushing KD with Silver Charm in the Oaks Derby Double.

Any horse you see get down on his belly and run his heart out to deliver the goods for you in the last 100 yds of the Kentucky Derby is one you never forget.

EVER!!!

[Flighted Iron]

LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner then the impossible occurred. The guy totally knows what he is doing and if you are betting he doesnt then you are asking for it.

Silver,

  It\'s hard to knock someone who\'s trained 3 KD winners.War emblem won in 02 and
was purchased 3 weeks prior to the derby.RQ and SC 97 AND 98.I\'m not sure if he
TOTALLY knows,but he sure has quite a few bullets to fire every year.
  Imo LAL is a contender,but I\'m not annointing him anything solely because he\'s
trained by BB.I don\'t think he\'ll get around Caracortado at SA next out.

good luck,
mjs

[nyc1347]

> In general I don\'t have a problem with your
> pattern reading, and you\'re looking at time
> between races and tops, which is often overlooked
> and undervalued. Also, any pure sheet discussion
> here is a plus (especially if I don\'t have to do
> it), but you need to ratchet down the cockiness
> several notches-- again, there are pros here.


I apologize and def. do not want to come across as cocky at all. I just try to stress my point of view and I strictly go by pattern within the thoro numbers.
>
> HOWEVER, on these two--
>
> 1-- Forget that \"took 3 months\" thing. Other than
> pairing the big jump, Rule COULDN\'T have run it
> sooner since they didn\'t start him sooner. When
> you are dealing with horses aimed for a target
> (the Derby), management becomes an issue, and
> can\'t be held against the horse. This also goes to
> the question of how wound up they are off the
> layoff-- small improvement is what they want, it\'s
> not a negative. Top outfits are not trying to get
> big tops with Derby contenders now.


I completely agree with the management of Rule in general and in THIS situation it seems like it was a perfect thing to do with him.  Based on the pattern AND rest Rule should run around his top Derby day.  The problem with that is i dont think a 1 or 2 would be good enough to win.  I do not use anything against a horse unless he specifically shows me something.  Even though he didnt run in January or sooner when he did finally run Rule HAS showed first out that he ran a 1 effort.. this couldve been a negative 2 or an 8.  The 1 effort coming out from a layoff tells me how the horse responded to the management and decisions that they gave for him.  My analysis amd point of view comes in at that point seeing how the horse came out this year compared to last year. Overall i see that the horse needs that 90 days or so to run a top effort based on this pattern read.
>

> 2-- LAL had one number better than a 6 1/2 last
> year, and he bounced badly from it. There\'s no way
> a number 4 points better than THAT one (and 10
> better than his secondary top) could be considered
> a step towards something else short term,
> ESPECIALLY when it comes after rest. Horses that
> run big off layoffs are notorious for falling
> apart, not for going forward. On top of that,
> there\'s the synth/dirt one-and-done issue-- a lot
> of them make the big jump and disappear.


I understand this point of view as well BUT when you are dealing with a horse whos 4 point improvement last year AND a 3 point move jumping to that 3 (representing %75 of improvement in just one race) we HAVE to expect a bounce in that situation with consistent rest (30 days off after bc day last year flowing with his previous rest from his other races) looking at it today currently.  The horse bounced BUT it still came within line of his previous efforts... this is a great sign to me.  To me, this is not a terrible bounce.  A terrible bounce to me wouldve been anything from 8 or less.

With that being said the management and rest given to this horse going to his first off the layoff falls in line once again with consistent improvement from last year (about 0.5-1pt improvement each month).  Hes reached a new level and is entering second off the layoff with that nice rest previous to his last race and is as fresh as can be.  Also, A BIG thing to say as well is that the dirt effort not only fell in line with development BUT it also fell in line with his poly efforts.. everything is consistent with this horse forging as more time goes by.  Hes older now and should be able to run much more consistent now this year.  If that bounce from a 3 to a 6 was THAT bad he probably wouldnt have ran a new top last out (1st off the layoff).  He did (i assume) run a new top so I treat this as a new horse and improvement to me is expected as time goes on at this current level whether its poly or dirt he is running on...especially 2nd off the layoff  

[nyc1347]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at
> least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real
> Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner
> then the impossible occurred. The guy totally
> knows what he is doing and if you are betting he
> doesnt then you are asking for it.
>
> Silver,
>
>   It\'s hard to knock someone who\'s trained 3 KD
> winners.War emblem won in 02 and
> was purchased 3 weeks prior to the derby.RQ and SC
> 97 AND 98.I\'m not sure if he
> TOTALLY knows,but he sure has quite a few bullets
> to fire every year.
>   Imo LAL is a contender,but I\'m not annointing
> him anything solely because he\'s
> trained by BB.I don\'t think he\'ll get around
> Caracortado at SA next out.
>
> good luck,
> mjs



I wouldnt jump to any conclusions yet Flight.   We have to see what he runs next time out (2nd off the layoff and the race prior to the derby).  If he runs a new top next out and its something like a negative 5 (like bellamy road) he may be a toss in the Derby.   According to his pattern he should improve about a point  or so each start til he races the end of the line but a huge jump prior to the derby could cause a sever bounce with only 30 days off.

[mjellish]

NYC-

There is a HUGE difference between 8F and 10F.  There is a big difference between 9F and 10F.  If you think there isn\'t, well...

[nyc1347]

the distance is different but what should mean everything is how each individual horse is coming into a race based on what the horse has previously shown compared to the others. if a horse has a poor pattern, projected to run bad (bounce, etc) or is too slow i dont care what distance you are running cause the horse wont run well either way going any distance.  if a horse has run consistently at 8F with nice timing and small forward movements what would make me think he wouldnt do the same at 10f?  unless its a specific pattern read or too slow in that specific race compared to the other horses then I have to remain consistent with what the horse is telling me within the thorograph number.  right?

[smalltimer]

nyc,

You may be onto something.  Every year all 20 horses finish that 10 furlong Derby full of run.

[nyc1347]

love the sarcasm lol but ur missing the point.     some horses bounce.. some regress.. some dont fire.. some do run great..some run huge... some bounce and win.     A horse who has smart strike as a sire such as LAL with a TGI of 11.25, 17% wins, 55 SW, etc. does not give me any indication of how LAL will run coming into a certain race... as well as ANY horse.  Part of those percentages include horses that have bounced, ran good, bad, and are obviously on average must slower than LAL.    LAL or any horses thorograph number, thoro pattern, timing/rest and comparison against other horses does give us that ability to determine who should and shouldnt fire that day though.  

If I have healthy horses running at 8F and they have nice timing and efforts coming into a distance for the first time of 10F how can my opinion change (just because of distance of 2 more F\'s) with a pattern looking positive?  Unless theres a horse with a SPECIFIC reason that they have shown not to get the extra distance (which in this case doesnt exist - NP is a great example) then my opinion has to remain consistent with what the horse has shown me prior.

[Silver Charm]

This horse is the real deal don\'t kid yourself.

[nyc1347]

based on my analysis with and the discussion I had with Jerry on here and in past threads my projections is him being the one and im in agreement.. with my co-choice being NP.  Every race presents a new situation though and If LAL does jump huge I may have to toss his out..only time will tell though. Based on what im seeing though with his pattern it looks to be a nice move forward next out that wouldnt mess his line up... same exact thing goes for NP.  We will see soon!

[mjellish]

NYC-

Let me first say that horse racing is certainly a sport that can teach you what you don\'t know, and when you find out what you don\'t know it usually turns out to be alot.  I know that has been the case with me.

I agree with much of your take about pattern handicapping.  It\'s a method I firmly believe in.  I would say, however, that you have to be careful not to be too rigid with how apply this method of handicapping to your betting behavior at the windows.  The numbers are what make the pattern, and the numbers by themselves are only numbers.  Horses are living, breathing animals with preferred running styles and distances.  If you take a horse like Bourban Bay, for example, and try running him at 5F on the grass - see what his number comes back at.  Same thing goes the other way, try running a horse like Midnight Lute at 1 1/4 and see what his sheet turns out to look like.

Now those are extreme examples.  But distance preferences for horses can be very subtle.  Sometimes all it takes is an extra 1/8th of a mile and horse\'s performance will suffer.  They simply won\'t win unless they are facing an over matched field, get a perfect trip, have a bias aid them, etc., and I don\'t care what their pattern looks like.  This is especially true at the classic distances of 1 1/4 and beyond, and even more true in a race like the KY Derby.  Every year for almost all of these horses it is the first time they will be going 1 1/4, and for many it will turn out to be the last.  Under the right circumstances a horse that is really more of miler may get a 1 1/8th, but that horse will usually be dead in the water at 1 1/4.  In my opinion, this is also why very few horses move forward in the KY Derby.  They simply aren\'t able to carry their speed or maintain their closing kick at 1 1/4.  It takes extra reserves of stamina to get that additional 1/8th, and most horses these days aren\'t bred or trained for it because the owners and breeders want to recoup their money as fast as possible.  That means racing at age 2, and breeding for speed and precocity.  Imagine being a young teenager and being taught how to swim fast for a 1/4 of mile.  All of your musculature and skeletal structure begins to adapt to this training.  Then suddenly, you turn 18 and are expected to train for a few weeks and then swim a mile.  Your body just isn\'t going to adapt that fast.  Now imagine that your IQ is 50 and you have no comprehension of what distance even is and no idea about what is happening to you.  You\'re just training as your told.  So in addition to being able to physically handle the demands of the new distance, somehow mentally you are supposed to get all of this and understand that your next race is going to be very different than everything else you have known.  

This is exactly what happens in the KY Derby, and it is another reason why the national average for winning favorites may be a little upwards of 35%, but in the KY Derby it is much lower.

I don\'t care how good of a handicapper you are.  If you don\'t take into your heart that sometimes distance takes precedence over pattern you are going to lose bunch of money.  And as it sits right now, in my opinion, unless I see something substantially different over the next few weeks, I would be willing to bet a LARGE amount of money that this is exactly the case with a horse like Noble\'s Promise.  I don\'t care what his sheet looks like.  To my eye, the way he fades in the lane and shuts down soon after the wire indicates he doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4.  His breeding would seem to agree with this.  True, there are always horses who outrun their breeding and we never know for sure until they try the distance.  These three year olds can also improve a bunch, in a hurry, and sometimes all it takes is a change in running style and WHAM - it\'s like the lights turned on.  This could still happen with this horse, but I think it is highly unlikely.  

I firmly believe this to be true of horses.  I would even go out on a limb and say that a horse like Quality Road probably won\'t win at 1 1/4 at the Grade I level anywhere unless he faces a really short field of marginal horses.  I\'ve seen him race enough now to know he\'s really more of miler.  He even set a track record sprinting.  It\'s a very rare horse that is going to do that and also win a GI at 1 1/4 or beyond.  And I would look to play against Quality Road at that distance if I get the chance.

After playing this ever changing game pretty seriously for two decades or so, this is something I swear you can take to the bank.  Sometimes distance will trump pattern.  Especially at the classic distances.  I guarantee it.