Florida Derby Time

[covelj70]

the fact that 8% of the horses run new tops in the Derby means that you will be able to come up with 8% of the horses for you to make your point.

I can use the other 92% of to make mine.

I am not sure how into pedigrees you are but are you really asking me why sons of Birdstone and Smart Strike are more likely to run their numbers going 1 1/4 than a son of Cuvee?  

Please tell me that you are either kidding or that you are really Chuckles the Clown who has come back in another life?

[miff]

What also makes the game great is the anticipation of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
short price if and when he tries a route of ground, no matter how good his number
or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look at it, been wrong before.

Bee,

The connections and I agree with you but will still give him a shot in the Preakness IF he continues to do well in the coming weeks. Tricky,desperate after Radiohead popped an unadvertised quarter before the fla derby,tried to hustle Paul and team to race D\'Funnybone in the Fla Derby.

Mike

[nyc1347]

> 1) Most Derby starters in this new fragile age
> have what 7 lifetime starts?
> Wouldn\'t I rather rely on pattern methodology when
> there is a larger sample?
> Does a Derby colt with 5 lifetime starts actually
> have a \"pattern\"?


Yes most of these young horses at the top level have healthy forging patterns.  At certain times when horses reach a certain level/numbrt they sometimes bounce giving us as an indication that maybe THAT certain level of racing is too much at that given time. Sometimes horses can get thru those top numbers.  Either way every single horse has a different pattern and/or development and racing situation is different.


>
> 2) JB mentioned the fact that Derby colt patterns
> are tricky because a lot of
> trainers are engineering a slight regression in
> the final prep. (Your Street Sense
> was a good example of this and many on the board
> were commenting in 2007 that
> Nafzger\'s preparation of SS was similar to his
> preparation of Unbridled in 1990).


Thank you and I also project Rule doing something similar to Street Sense

>
> 3) If you would like to see an example of breeding
> in relation to distance-
> ability, look at the TG Sire stat for D\'Wildcat,
> sire of D\'Funnybone. DW has sired
> 101 runners which made it to the races, making 895
> starts among them.
>
> Of the 895 starts, 724 were made at distances
> shorter than one mile, with a very
> acceptable 18% win percentage.
>
> The 171 starts by the get of DW at distances at
> one mile or over produced 16
> wins, a 9% win percentage.
>
> What is striking is not so much the difference in
> win percentage, but the
> relatively small percentage of DW\'s offspring
> which even were tried at the longer
> distances. Not surprisingly, of DW\'s 10 lifetime
> SWs, 9 were winners at the less
> than one mile distance.
>
> The game is great. The Tricky trained D\'Funnybone
> could of course go on to have
> success at the longer distances despite his
> seemingly sire limited pedigree.
>
> What also makes the game great is the anticipation
> of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
> short price if and when he tries a route of
> ground, no matter how good his number
> or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look
> at it, been wrong before.
>

What i would say about this is we would have to wait until the time comes where D\'Funny races a route and see who hes racing against him at that given time.. clearly if he ran against horses that were running very very slow we couldnt expect that to happen.. IF that situation does come about where there are other horses that may beat him AND hes a short price then the odds will dictate most of that decision.  It would be a similar situation just like Blind Luck last out.  I predicted BL not winning going the 2 turns based on the fractions being different and her closing even though she had the best numbers.  The idea though was that I got the odds to play that angle.. just as we would with D\'Funny

[richiebee]

Miff:

Actually, a poster elsewhere mentioned Radiohead\'s hoof problems before the race.

If DF goes in the Preakness, the short priced favorite scenario is out of the
equation. Would imagine that the plan is to prep him in a one turn mile for the
Preakness.

Have nothing against DF, though his Swale was impressive.

[miff]

Bee,

The connections of DF are racing sharp guys who feel that their horse may be distance challenged. The will prep once before the Preakness and if all is perfect, take a shot.The ultimate goal is to get a stallion deal for DF since they already turned down a couple of million for the horse. I told them to take the money,they declined.

Mike

[nyc1347]

What makes you think NP cant run a negative 3 next out and bounce a point derby day and still win?  just as an example.

im not asking about all of cuvees or birdstones sires.. im asking about NP (one horse) and asking why it is not possible for this one animal to run in line with his pattern and top number, just like Summer Bird and Curlin did, which would be competitive in this years crop on derby day?  IF he ran in line with his top efforts at 8F and 9F like he has proven why cant he go 10F??  It makes no sense to me.

The 8% is based on a horse running a top effort in the derby.. what makes you think (as an example) that NP next out couldnt run a negative 3 and then go backwards a point or even pair on derby day and not win?  This has happened more recently in history with wins from smarty jones and funny cide.  

Also important to say that until Derby day comes its hard to even say that a horse like NP or LAL could even be used until we see what they run next out prior to the big race.. they may run out of their minds and could be bounce candidates.. same thing goes for Esky or any horse who will still run a prep this year.

[nyc1347]

D\'Funny not being able to run great in the Preakness may open up the door for a horse like Ibbayee (whatever that horses name is, that pletcher horse) to develop into a solid 2 turn horse.  That horse looks like it can run all day.

[mjellish]

NYC-

Look,

You have your opinion that a good pattern trumps distance, even at 1 1/4, and I can see that nothing will probably change that.  I believe you are dead wrong, but what the hell, it\'s your money.

But since it is your money, here\'s what I propose.  Let\'s see what happens between now and the KY Derby.  If I still feel the way I do about Noble\'s Promise, and you still feel the way you do then I propose a bet.  You can have Noble\'s Promise.  I will pick a horse that I think will finish ahead of him, and I will let you exclude 3 from the race.  So for example, you can tell me no ESK, no LAL, no Rule, whatever you want.  Whichever pick finishes better that guy wins the bet.  We can discuss the amount later and in private.  I\'ll even give you my cell phone number, and we can put the money in an escrow account before the race.

As an aside, I\'m not exactly sure how to take it when you post before a race saying that Amen Hallelujah is going to run a track record, but post after the race that you played her underneath in an EX.  I know how tough this game is and I know that I can\'t always pick winners.  And when I miss I take my lumps.  Based upon what I have actually seen you post here on the board about who you liked and how you were going to wager BEFORE a race, I would say as a show better you are down money.  I always watch the pools in any race I am going to play, and one of them happened to be a race that you said you were laying down $4k to show.  I watched the show pool and the only flash where the pool on that horse ever went up by 4K was the second to last one, and that was barely over $4k.  True, it\'s possible that you may have been the only one betting show on that horse at that time, but I doubt it.  You may also have put your bet in over time in $500 increments or something, which is entirely possible.  But regardless of whether you are winning and betting as you say, you have done a pretty good job of doping out some decent horses based their sheets.  And I give credit where credit is due for that.  You also do a pretty good job of talking TG #\'s and patterns.  

But if I am going to be honest, I should tell you that your posts don\'t strike me as coming from someone who has been playing horses seriously for very long.  This is a tough, tough game.  And any regular player is going to take his lumps, even a show better.  While show betting is relatively safe, it is much tougher to make money that way.  If you ask any professional player they will tell you that there aren\'t many that grind out much of a living by show betting.  In fact, most pro players don\'t tend to grind it out at all.  The win or lose a bit, but they keep swinging for the big windfalls and when they hit they hit big.  I will lay down $10k-$50k if I see something I really like, and I\'m not even a big better compared to some of the people I\'ve hung around with.  And not a one of them has ever made much money by playing it safe in the show pool.  So I think you have some lessons to learn at the windows.  But I also think you add to the discussion on this board.

I don\'t have time to argue my point about distance vs. patterns with you, and you appear to have strong convictions that differ from mine.  So let\'s just pick this discussion back up the week before the KY Derby and put out money where our keystrokes are.  Sound good?

And keep the good sheet discussions coming!

[nyc1347]

I dont know if you were there for the discussions about playing horses for a living on here but my wagers that are bigger shows are placed on an online site so that i can get a rebate back on my wager. That money does not hit the actual pools. I have played horses and used sheets for about 10 years.  I actually started off with the Rags and my preference changed after using both for a few years as I personally find the thoros are more accurate and a better product overall.  I have gotten to be more of a serious player over the last several years taking this to the next level and this is my income and living.
I have been successful to date and I hope it continues.  Im very happy making $1500-2500 a week playing only a few races and remain discipline with my show wagers and selections.


Anyway, no reason to go all crazy with personal wagers.  As I have said, NP may very well be a toss in the derby.  Whenever a race comes I look at everything for that given day and base my opinions on whether the horses on that day will run.  Most of what we are talking about now is projection or assumptions for we do not know if any horses will get injured, run big then are bounce candidates, throw in a clunker, etc. prior to the derby.  If anything comes up that may look like something though il get back to you for fun but I wish us all great luck as we move on and i look forward to everyones posts as always.

As far as that Amen post i was being sarcastic bc i LOVED that horse and wound up doing an exacta because i figured pletchers horse would pick up the scraps (meaning get an easy 2nd in the race).. i boxed it smaller just cause the odds and payout the other way was big just in case.  I had it a 2 horse race either way.. i also stated whoever picked Christine Daae \"good luck\" because that horse looked terrible going in with such bad move last out and figured not to run good.

[albany]

Richie:

Thanks, the Ice Box situation was right up my alley. Luckily, I cashed a large double using the obvious winner in the previous race (D\'Funnybone) and a small super (which wasn\'t that hard for me since the second horse ran well against Ice Box in prior races). Sometimes things just turn out right.

Although there were many angles pointing to Ice Box, the fact that he had the co-fastest 1/2 mile work at Palm Meadows since 2/24 was important to me. That was co-fastest among over 750 horses! He was sitting on \"go\" for a trainer who really knows how to crank up a 3yo in the Spring.

By the way, the time hit by Ice Box was surpassed by Friend or Foe on 3/24. That one may be worth watching.

Albany