My ban is over. So my Derby thoughts and apology

[Silver Charm]

I want to lead this post with an apology. For the last two weeks I have been banned from this Board for unwarranted and unnecessary insults aimed at fellow handicappers who use a rival product. What was originally a lifetime ban was reduced to two weeks when during my arbitration hearing I argued that the nice things I said about Thorograph were factual and the bad things I said about the flawed Ragozin figure making methodology were also factual. The arbitrator agreed and reduced my ban to two weeks but only with the stipulation that I issue a public apology. Fellow handicappers, I’m sorry.

Now lets talk Derby. One of the things I have noticed from reading a lot of the posts on both Boards was a lot of talk about pattern reads, number power, condition plays, bounce theories, etc. All that’s good stuff but hey guys who is going to the lead, who is going to receive the perfect stalking trip, will there be enough early speed for the out of the clouds closers to win. Nobody is bringing it up and if you don’t think it is going to be a factor then you have already forgotten what went on the last two years.

Anybody think they would see a Derby with internals such as 44 and 1:08. So what happens the very next year people are so concerned about not getting into a speed dual that no one goes and War Emblem goes thru uncontested fractions and cruises. Trainers and jockeys alike do choke in this race. The Derby is filled with this type of stuff.

Here’s how I see it.

Pace players-Brancusi, Eye of the Tiger, Funny Cide, Indian Express, New York Hero, Peace Rules, Scrimshaw. Thats seven horses all wanting the same spot. I am going to project that Frankel will send Peace Rules, its worked the last two races, and Baffert will send Indian Express. Could get interesting real early.

Next Layer-Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Kafwain, Offlee Wild, Ten Most Wanted.

Coming from way back- ATSWITA, Lone Star Sky, Sir Cherokee, Supah Blitz.

Also one of the ways to handicap this race is to throw out the horses who can’t win. You will come up with about five or six left and you need to go from there. Picking THE ONE just is not that easy. The pros will tell that.
 
Having said that I think I have zeroed in on one I like a little more than the some of the others who also have a chance. He has real good number power, a suitable style and is training very well. The only clue I will give is his jockeys name has six letters in it.  

Remember the Derby is only one race in a week filled with great racing. Also remember there is a lot of \"free advice or analysis\" floating around Derby week and there is a reason why its free, because it usually is worthless. Hopefully for my wallets sake that doesn’t include this post.

Good Luck everybody see you in about 10 days.

[TGJB]

I don\'t think there is that much early speed, myself.

By my count there are 4 jocks with 6 letter names. I could dutch them, but since one is Bailey it\'s a little tricky.

Just so everyone knows, Silver Charm\'s exile was self imposed-- he called me saying he was going to cool it for a while, and I said I thought that was a good idea. Personally, I thought the post about Friedman giving the workout for the unraced 2 year old in the sale the same figure as Chilukki was great.

[JAKE]

you 6 letter jockey is edible. Correct?

F-A-R-I-N-A.

[reboundman]

Or could it be PAT DAY -- 6 letters TOTAL.

[Michael D.]

you are definitely jumping on one of the two Deputy Commander wise guy horses, most likely the one with the jockey with first and last names combining to fit the requirements.

[Michael D.]

Brancusi will rate just a bit, Eye of the Tiger will try to come just off the pace, Funny Cide is definitely going to sit just off the pace, if Crimshaw gets Smith, you know they want to lay a length or two off the pace, and New York Hero should be in his stall on the 3rd. That leaves Peace Rules and Indian Express to vie for the early lead.
Maybe :46.4 or something like that for the half?