Yes Sir!

[derby1592]

I would like to say that I had Sir Cherokee in the Ark Derby. Unfortunately, if I said that, I would be lying. However, I was very impressed with his race. He dropped way back and then circled the entire field to blow by Eugene\'s Third Son and win going away with a final 8th of a mile in 11 and change and with a fast final time on a track that was not playing particularly fast. Admittedly, the race collapsed in front of him but he still had to circle the field and a fast pace did not help him run any faster (it just slowed down some of the others). We will have to wait and see the figures but I am pretty confident that he ran a better number than either Empire Maker or Peace Rules. Something very close to zero or maybe even better would not be a surprise.

His line leading up to the Aks Derby was slow but not bad at all. A 2yo top of 8.5 with no really bad races and a small forward move at 3. A line that says he might be able to handle a big jump.

Could he repeat that big fig in the Derby? Why not? He has plenty of stamina from his Dam and he is not likely to get caught up in a fast early pace and with his drop back early style, even a bad post position will not hurt much. Can he circle the field and win the Derby? Probably not, but he could circle the field and pass a lot of tired horses and, after Empire Maker, there are not many horses that look fast, forward-moving and capable of getting the distance in what looks to be a very weak Derby field this year.

Empire Maker is clearly the horse to beat and looks to be heading into the Derby in peak form but, after him, it is wide open so anything could happen.

I will have to wait and see all the final figures and see who actually enters and what post positions are drawn but after Empire Maker, I give Sir Cherokee as good a chance as any to win the Derby.

For now, Sir Cherokee is on my short list of contenders and maybe even all the way up to a distant second behind the obvious leader of the Division.

Chris

[OPM]

Ok Chris: I have to see what # Empire Mker ran but if he ran a worse # than in the Fla Derby, I will not bet him at all since he will be 4/5.  
Now, let\'s talk about Baffert\'s horse.  Indian Express ran a 1 in the SA derby(going3w1w)and Kafwain probably ran a 2.5/3.  Now, there is this distance question with Kafwain but I believe that this horse is coming up to a big race and Indian express will probably repeat his #(at 20-1 or better).  Kafwain will most likely be 12-15-1 on Derby day.  When was the last time you got 15-1 on the fastest horse in the race by about 2pts.  E.M. did go wide on both turns so he might have ran better than his F.Derby but that still leaves Kafwain as a double digit fastest horse!!!  The other horse I am interested in seeing the # is Offlee Wild but he did not do enough yesterday to warrant playing at any odds below 50-1.