Too Fast Too Early - 2003 Assessment to date

[derby1592]

About 2 years ago, I observed that no horse that had earned a sub-6 TG fig as a 2yo had ever gone on to win the Derby. This year that \"rule\" is getting a big test in that there are a large number of such \"too fast too early\" horses. However, despite the large number of highly-touted horses, it looks like there is a very good chance that the observation will continue to hold this year. I am sure I missed some horses (feel free to add or correct) but here is my best reckoning of those that ran sub-6 2yo figs and their 2yo tops and current Derby status:

Added Edge (not sure of 2yo top) – Off Derby trail
Awesome Humor (not sure of 2yo top) – Off Derby trail
Champali (4, 8f Nov) – Off Derby trail (I think)
Cheerokee's Boy (4.5, 7f Sep) – Off Derby trail (I think)
Crackup (not sure of 2yo top) – Off Derby trail
Funny Cide (3.5, 7f, Sept) – One of the few still alive and entered in Wood.
Great Notion (5.25, 6.5f Dec) – Also, still alive and entered in the Blue Grass.
Indy Dancer (5.5, 8f, Nov) – Also still alive and entered in Wood.
Kafwain (4 9f, 3.25, 8.5f) – Also still alive and will train up to Derby.
Lone Star Sky (4.5, 6f Jul) – Possibly still on Derby trail but doubtful.
Minister\'s Wildcat (5, 8f late Dec) – Questionable after scratch in SA Derby. Lex next?
Ozzie Cat (5.75, 7f, Oct) – Off Derby trail (I think)
Robledo (5.5, 6f Nov) – Off Derby trail (I think)
Runnin on Nitro (4.25, 5.5f Dec) – Off Derby trail (I think)
Senor Swinger (5.25 8f, early Dec) – New life with Baffert and entered in Wood.
Siberland (4.25, 6f, Aug and several others) – off the Derby trail.
Sky Mesa (4.5, 7f Aug, 4.5 8.5f Sep) – Off Derby trail
Supah Blitz (4.25, 7f Nov) – Probably off the Derby trail.
Toccett (4 8.5 Oct, and several others) – Off Derby trail
Trust N Luck (0.5, 8.5, Dec) – Off Derby trail
Vindication (3?, 9f Nov) – Off Derby trail
Wando (5.75, 8.5f Oct) – Off Derby Trail
Why Why Why (4.5, 6f, Jul, 4.5, 8f Sep) – Off Derby trail
Zavata (2.5, 5.5f Jun) – Off Derby trail

Note: I did not include fillies since they are not typically pointed to the Derby but Composure was rumored to be heading that way until her injury and she was sub-6.

The closer to a 6 and the later in the year the less detrimental the fast 2yo figure so Minister\'s Wildcat, Senor Swinger, Indy Dancer and Great Notion are right on the borderline, which may explain while they are still in the Derby Picture (at least for now). As with all such \"backwards-looking\" rules I think it may eventually need some tweaking. Maybe to something such as anything less than a 6 prior to Dec and anything less than a 5 during Dec, etc.

Funny Cide and Kafwain are not anywhere near the borderline and are probably toast in terms of their Derby chances. The rest are already all off the Derby trail.

Definitely something to think about if you own or train a top horse and really want to win the Derby or if you plan on making any Derby Future Book wagers next year.

Chris

[OPM]

Chris:
What do you think of Funny Cide\'s chances in the Wood?

[derby1592]

Hello OPM,

Funny Cide\'s sheet looks very solid except for that 3.5 in September. That is enough to make me very nervous. On the plus side, he is relatively fresh, has never really went backwards is second fastest going into the race and may be able to control the pace. A lot to like. Also, assuming that Empire Maker will be only about 80 percent cranked, FC certainly has a shot. An off track probably will help as well since he will likely be on the lead.

That being said, I think Senor Swinger and Indy Dancer both have the potential to run big tops and also have a shot.

I am not sure how the public will bet his race though. Will they hammer EM down to 2/5? If so, it should be playable but who will the crowd land on as the second choice? The new Baffert horse? The previously over-hyped Pletcher horse? Or the fastest horse of the three that may have the pace players drooling?

You have to believe that at least one of them may go off at generous odds.

Should be an interesting betting race. I will need to look at the other entrants to see if it looks like anyone is likely to push FC early.

The Blue Grass also looks interesting as does the Ark Derby.

I am definitely starting to get a bad case of Derby fever.

Chris

[RICH]

How about empire maker? Big 6 first time out, big top last out. There was a time 3-4 yrs ago that a big 6pt top would be a throwout 80%? of the time off that kind of top. Can we beat EM in the wood?

Rich