Wild Cat Redemption in the SA Derby?

[derby1592]

Last Saturday, the Wild Cats (from Kentucky and Arizona) both went into their NCAA Title prep as the favorite and both came out as a loser.

This Saturday another Wild Cat goes into a big prep (this one of the Derby variety) but he goes in as a longshot rather than a favorite. Is there a chance that this Wild Cat might pull off an upset?
 
Minister\'s Wild Cat is a very interesting horse. He is slow coming into the SA Derby but he also has an explosive looking line. But how explosive? Explosive enough to warrant a bet at 10/1 (his morning line)?

Just looking at his line in isolation you would say he could easily make a jump but it is hard to predict when. He has yet to make a forward move but he has also never went back and it has only been 3 races since his first start. Given his trainer (Drysdale), you also have to figure that he is probably healthy and developing or he would not be entered in the SA Derby.

So you have a healthy young 3yo with a solid line that has yet to make a forward move and has had more than 3 months to develop since his first start. You figure that there is a good chance that he is going to explode sooner or later but will it be on Saturday? That is the million dollar question (perhaps literally given the guaranteed pick six at SA on Saturday).

To help answer that question, I decided to look for a few more relevant data points. I thought why not look at similar recent Drysdale horses that has gone down the Derby trail. I found three of them and, sure enough, I found a very obvious and potent pattern. Sometimes you don\'t need a lot of data points to draw a powerful conclusion and this looks like one of those times.

I found three recent examples of horses that fit the profile of a young, well-bred, highly-regarded 3yo Drysdale-trained horse that was running in it\'s final Derby prep in early April.

-Sunday Break (2002) entered in the Wood
-War Chant (2000) entered in the SA Derby
-Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) entered in the Wood

The similarity does not end there. The three horses also had remarkably similar lines. They had all started their careers with a sprint in December followed by a very flat line in their 3yo preps prior to April with a TG top of between 5 and 7.

In other words, their lines heading into their final Derby preps looked nearly identical to MWC\'s.

Now I bet you would like to know how those three ran in those final Derby preps and I also bet that you are guessing that they must have run pretty well. If so, you would be guessing right.

- Sunday Break jumped 4.25 pts to a 1.5
- Fusaichi Pegasus jumped 2.5 pts to a 2.25
- War Chant jumped 3 pts to a 4

Wow! Given all this, I would say that a 3-4 pt jump by Ministers Wild Cat on Saturday is definitely not that much of a stretch and such a jump would likely put him in the winner\'s circle at a very juicy price.

Also note the added plus factors of a switch to blinkers (hopefully he borrowed them from Bobby Frankel), the good post position (should be able to save ground), the tactical speed (should be able to get a good stalking position), the fast recent work (unusual for Drysdale) and the wide trip from a tough post in his last (should help the price) and MWC just may be the key to making this race very profitable.

Something to think about.

Good luck to all.

Chris

\"Often wrong, never in doubt.\"

[sheba87]

Very interesting.  I had thought of the War Chant and Fu Peg examples today but did not have the data.  Your post reaffirms my opinion that Ocean Terrace and Ministers Wild Cat are the key to the race.  I see them both moving forward and would not be shocked to see one of them win it.

I can\'t imagine MWC will be 10-1 but if he is he is an obvious play in my book.

I don\'t trust the horses coming out of the San Felipe and I don\'t like Kafwain at 9 so I am left with MWC and OT.

I think they will both be bettable and both have a good look on Saturday.  Not a bad combination.

[Michael D.]

Chris,
You learn something new every day. I just read in the DRF that horses in Cal are not allowed to to switch to blinkers on unless they are coming off a loss(which was news to me). The article also mentioned that Drysdale has been wanting to put blinkers on MWC for a few races now. Do you think Drysdale told Kent D to just stay on the outside during his last race, and not use the horse too much? Drysdale is a class act, and he obviously would never throw a race. If he really thought, however, that MWC needed blinkers to run his best, in the back of his mind, he probably thought a second place finish was as good as a win. I think MWC will go off at around 6-1 or 7-1. I have not made a decision on the race yet (leaning towards the favorite), but this is something to think about.