Will Buddy Gill Bounce??

[Silver Charm]

Now that I have finally gotten all the egg off my face and my size 11 1/2 shoe out of my mouth its time to get back horse racing?

Buddy Gill is very interesting in this weeks Santa Anita Derby. In the race down the hill on turf, prior to the San Felipe, he ran a very competitive 2 1/2. Because of the significant forward move that he made and because it was on turf, not dirt, horseplayers let him slide off in the San Felipe at 9-1.
He seems to fit a pattern we have discussed here before where some 3 YO horses who figure to bounce in the spring just do not do so. This horse has good tactical speed, won inspite of a very troubled trip and figures to be a decent price again.

The fact that he recently switched to a trainer who seems to have discovered the necessary magic formula is also part of the equation.

We will need to see the TG numbers before a reliable decision can be made but Buddy Gill could be dangerous again.

[bdhsheets]

Buddy won\'t be a price, he\'s 2nd fav to Atswhat in the ML at 5/2, Kafwain at 4-1, Logician + Domestic at 15-1 might be the value plays.

[dpatent]

Can\'t resist on this -- Whoever made Domestic Dispute 15:1 ML is probably dying to push up the horse\'s odds so that he can be him.  If this horse is more than 6:1 I will be very very surprised.  That said, he probably will be some value.  BG and KW look to be at the end of the line for awhile.  And I\'m not real clear on how to read AWITA\'s line, but he will be overbet as well.

[Silver Charm]

Welcome back dpatent. You shouldn\'t stay away so long.

When I mentioned that Buddy Gil may be a price again what I meant was he may be about 7/2 or 4-1 coming off the win in the Prep (think Free House). I think that a lot of players will read into his line that he is at the end of the line. However, as I said that has not always been the case over the last few years with several of these 3YO. This is horse who will definitely be out to win now, AWITA may be thinking Derby.

I\'m not committing myself to playing him I\'m just saying he will be an interesting proposition in a very good betting race!!

You can\'t make any judgements until you see the TG numbers.

[dpatent]

Silver,

Thanks for the welcome.  Now that the Derby is coming up there should be some good fodder for discussion.

I don\'t know what the TG Sheets will show on BG, nor do I know what Rag. says he ran in the San Felipe, but the number he ran in the down-the-hill race on Ragozin was enough to kill him for awhile.  He probably bounced 3-5 points in the San Felipe and I would expect further regression in this race -- again, on Ragozin sheets.  He may have a beautiful pattern on TG for all I know.  I will not, however, wait until I see TG sheets before making my final judgment on him -- for obvious reasons.  Good luck.

[Michael D.]

my guess on approximate odds

Ats 9/5
Kaf 3-1
OT, DD, and MWC all from 6-1 to 8-1
BG 10-1

If you don\'t like the favorites, it will be a great betting race. Even if you do like the favorite, ATS isn\'t a bad key at 9/5. Should be a great race.

[derby1592]

Hello Mr. Patent

I was thinking Domestic Dispute might be playable in the SA Derby and also was shocked by the morning line. However, the outside post is an obvious concern and given this Baffert quote, doubly so -

Baffert said the outside post should suit Domestic Dispute\'s running style because he likes to \"be in the clear.\" Baffert said \"we need to let him run earlier.\"

I interpret this to mean that DD may be pressing the pace rather than dropping back this time which means that there is a good chance that he will be caught 3 or 4 wide on the first turn. I also interpret this to mean that they want to keep him outside \"in the clear\" so he will probably stay out there on the second turn as well.

I don\'t think he is 3 or 4 pts better than the field and that is what he needs to be to win with such a trip so I will probably look elsewhere.

Good luck. It should be a interesting betting race.

Chris

[TGJB]

David--

Fodder indeed. From what I can tell from the encoded messages on the Rag board there are some serious differences between us and them for the SA Derby. Buddy Gill looks a lot different, as you will see in ROTW-- where his pattern is negative on Rag it\'s about neutral on ours (considering the trainer switch two back), which given the probable ground loss scenario makes him a strong contender.

I also have seen the numbers for the Derby preps that Friedman has been giving away free in the Thoroughbred Times, and there are some differences with other Derby contenders as well, although they are generally not extreme, from what I can tell.
Of course, they haven\'t run the Wood yet.

[Catalin]

I wouldn\'t be so quick to predict a bounce.  Mullins is the Left Coast\'s version of Mark Shuman.  He may have one more bullet left.

Cat

[Silver Charm]

TGJB I\'m glad you wrote the previous post because after David enlightened me on how Buddy Gil looked on Rags I almost couldn\'t believe it. The following from an encrypted post is what I think??? Buddy Gil looks like on the Rags.


1\"..5+ is regressing again


Now the reason I was glad you posted first was because having David and Marc and some of the other insightful handicappers posting on this Board is good for everyone. The last thing I wanted to do was go on the attack and make David feel as though he had to defend Rags numbers. He doesn\'t have to defend his handicapping position, his analysis may prove to be very solid. We will know very soon won\'t we.

This is what I can\'t believe about the numbers and running line of Buddy Gil as produced by Rags. The San Felipe was considered to be the best and deepest field of all the Derby Preps to date(Fla Derby was not deep). So how in the world does Rags have a horse who wins regress over four points. Was the turf number that wrong!!

I just have a hard time figuring this kind of thing out. This horse had 3W ground loss on both turns carried 119 pounds encountered serious traffic trouble coming off the turn and down through the lane, REGRESSED OVER 4 POINTS AND STILL WON!!!!  What??

Forget Empire Maker if this horse moves forward again, at least according to Rags, he is a freak.

Now if Buddy Gil is up the track then who is right, Rags who says he is already in a state of regression, TG who may say he bounced after pairing up big tops. No one will really know for sure.

One thing for people to consider is his pedigree. The sire Eastern Echo was an old Rokeby Stable runner who busted out of the box with big 5 furlong sprint win at Saratoga in a baby race. He was injured and did not return. His dam is the blue hen mare Wild Applause who also has Yell in the Ashland Stakes on Sat. Wild Applause also threw Roar and another 6 1/2 furlong track record settor at CD owned by Dogwood whose name slips my mind and many others. The point is this is a blue chip quality pedigree on top but it mostly favors speed. On the bottom side the dam sire is For Really who I only remember as a New York based 2YO sprinter. Where\'s the stamina???

Back to my main point, if Friedman and company want me to believe that 3 Year Olds who are in a developing state actually regress 4 points and win a major Ky Derby Prep while carrying weight, incurring ground loss and traffic trouble, well sorry April Fools Day has already come and gone for this year.

Take that from someone who knows.



Post Edited (04-04-03 11:02)

[magicnight]

Silver Charm wrote that Eastern Echo was injured after a 5F sprint at Saratoga and did not return.

While he may not have returned to Saratoga he did return to the races and won a graded stakes at Belmont in the fall of his 2YO season.

[Marc At]

Sigh. One of the most consistently mind-boggling things about the whole TG vs. Ragozin dialogue, to me and others, is the insistence of some that the best way to prove one set of numbers better or worse is to look at these numbers over adverse or unusual track conditions-- sloppy tracks, tracks that are indeed drying out, etc. Virtually any horse player I know who has a clue knows that these off-track performances are *always* the ones you take least seriously in a horse\'s form cycle... Except, maybe, for 4.5 furlong races.

The latest example of \"gotcha\" is seemingly Buddy Gil. Not sure how Buddy looks on TG, but on Ragozin, he has a strong 2-yr-old line, developing beautifully down to the 9 level before throwing in two atrocious races in the slop.

Next out, he changes barn to the red-hot Mullins barn, who is clearly using superior feed to whatever Buddy was getting before. He sprints on the turf for the first time.

Could Buddy be a superior turf sprinter? Perhaps.
Is Mullins feeding him something new? Probably.

Buddy Gil runs a 1.5 sprinting on the turf, and then follows it up with a number MUCH more in line with previous efforts, a 5.25. Does that mean that Buddy Gil is bouncing to the moon on Saturday?

No, not in my book. We know how well Mullins is doing, and why would we make so much out of a turf sprint, when looking at this horse\'s line? Turf sprinting is such a quirky little part of the game, and with no other turf sprints on Buddy\'s resume, it\'s literally the single number on all of the Ragozin Santa Anita Derby PPs that means the least to me.

The 5+ that follows means a lot more. Within the context of the rest of his line, it\'s 4 points past his 2-yr-old top, and I think he has a decent shot of pairing it. I view his line neutrally. Not a horse I\'d key, and from what I gather, not a horse most TG players would key either. Gotcha, indeed.

Though a bit little slower than a few others, Ocean Terrace\'s Ragozin line makes the most sense to me here. Looks like he\'s sitting on a breakthrough, and he should save ground. Very wide open race and I lean towards exacta boxes with MWC, Logician, the favorite (defensive use here), and perhaps, yes, Buddy Gil.

Last comment: To me, on Ragozin, Kafwain is a pretty serious bet against. Guess what? I know at least a couple Ragozin players who disagree completely, who think Baffert will get one more effort out of him... I love the confidence with which you guys pronounce Buddy\'s line as \"negative\" on Ragozin. More than one way to read these things, huh?

[Silver Charm]

Magicnight thanks for the correction. I guess my memory is slipping with my age. I did some research on Eastern Echo and found the following pedigree file. He did have a shortlived career--only three races at two.


http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/sronline/pdfs/easternecho.pdf

This really was incredible when I looked at some of the dams in the Eastern Echo line. The second dam was Glowing Tribute which screamed Old Rokeby Stables. Just look at some of the offspring: Glowing Honor, Sea Hero, Coronation Cup.

The third dam was Admiring whose dam was Searching. Searching was the dam of...??





Ruffian !!!

[TGJB]

Your sighs, gotchas and general cute forbearance notwithstanding, negative comments on BG came from David Patent (Rag player) and at least two others on the Rag board before my comment.
I now have a set of the Rag sheets for the Derby pool, and if I had the time there would be a whole lot to talk about. But if you believe that turf figure I have a bridge I want to sell you, no matter what happens Saturday.

[Marc At]

There are Rag customers who are overrating the importance of a turf sprint when looking at a line, and there are Thorograph customers. I\'m aware of this. A couple in the TGraph camp think it proves something about the viability of betting on Buddy Gil on Saturday.

I think it\'s the least compelling number in the entire race.