ONLY IN HOLLYWOOD. . .or, Arcadia, as the case may be!

[Dana666]

In winning the Breeder\'s Cup Classic (of course, the first filly ever to do so), Zenyatta defeated males who had won (by my quick count) 15 Grade/Group I stakes in North America and Great Britain including the following:
Kentucky Derby,
Belmont,
Travers,
Jockey Club Gold Cup,
Pacific Classic,
Arlington Million,
Frank Kilroe Mile,
Manhattan,
Man O\'War,
Turf Classic,
Stephen Foster,
Champion,
Sussex,
Queen Elizabeth,
La. Super Derby.

When Quality Road was scratched, all of sudden a race with a decent amount of pace turned into a race with much less pace; the fractions were roughly as follows- 24.16, 23.72, 24.00, 24.28, 24.46. Coming from where she came from on that track, which this year unlike last year, hadn\'t been very kind to deep closers, is almost unthinkable.

While I was one of her biggest fans on this board, I was so mad at her camp for not trying the boys earlier (or Rachel for that matter), and I thought, what\'s he crazy? NOW he wants the boys? In one of the toughest races on planet earth for any horse to win. I thought Shirrefs was really crazy - he was crazy - like a fox.

They knew exactly what they were doing, keep her happy at home, and let everyone else come to us.

And how many of the professional handicappers threw her out? Too many to list here. On Rag\'s they have her as the fastest horse BY FAR, and the guy who does their analysis says she\'s a bet against because he had her going backwards in her last start! In fairness to him, he did say if she ran back to her best, she\'s be tough but he didn\'t think she would.

What impresses me most is the frighteningly easy way she disposed of that field - she galloped out way in front too at a distance she had never raced before!

When I looked at the PP\'s this week, I thought to myself, if she beats this field we\'ll all need to reconsider Rachel as automatic horse of the year, but I had my doubts that Zen could do it. Honestly, I had no strong feeling either way except to say I thought the entire race was really puzzling because of the different surfaces, running styles, Euro\'s, American\'s, three-year old\'s, older - I couldn\'t get a clear picture, except to wonder how the heck could she drop far back and run by these horses?

It is very hard to compare horses like any other athletes from different era\'s but I will go back to my thoughts in a post earlier this year when I said they need to discuss her as one of the great thoroughbreds of all time, not merely one of the great mares. I suppose the only negative is can anyone imagine what it would have been like to see her and Rachel square off??? When they do vote for horse of the year, they should be thinking how does Rachel stack up to Zenyatta, not the other way around. Honestly, Rachel is a great 3 year old and she ignited an interest in millions of fans, but Rachel\'s accomplishments do not come close to what Zenyatta achieved this afternoon. And, please I know this is a numbers oriented forum, but don\'t tell me about the numbers Rachel ran in dirt races. The numbers are so deceiving and often inaccurate on synthetic surfaces, like I\'ve been saying for years; even if you leave the synthetic debate aside, the synthetic surfaces haven\'t been around long enough to make numbers that stack up to dirt numbers in accuracy - it\'s just an entirely different animal, so the final analysis must always come down to your own eyes.

Zenyatta\'s story is one no screenwriter could have written because no one would ever believe it.

[MonmouthGuy]

As a disclaimer, I would vote Z HoY after what I saw today.

That being said, any 10F race that Gio Ponti finishes ahead of Summer Bird, is, by defintion, a turf race.

[Dana666]

That\'s funny! Good point, too. In that case, maybe everyone should petition Z\'s team to keep her in training one more year and go for the Melbourne Cup in 2010!

[Flighted Iron]

or at least leave california

[jimbo66]

Dana,

She isn\'t going to win horse of the year.  It may not be close.  She is the best synthetic horse, male or female, of the last few years.  

Gio Ponti and Twice over would have trouble winning a money allowance race on dirt.  Dirt horses ran up the track all weekend, as they did last year.  Zenyatta is a great story, but if synthetic tracks disappear in a few years, like many predict they will, it will likely impact her going down as a great horse.  Call it an asterisk.

How about that Mike Smith saving ground and splitting horses.  I haven\'t seen enough apologies to P-Dub on the board today....

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dana,
>
> She isn\'t going to win horse of the year.  It may
> not be close.  She is the best synthetic horse,
> male or female, of the last few years.  
>
> Gio Ponti and Twice over would have trouble
> winning a money allowance race on dirt.  Dirt
> horses ran up the track all weekend, as they did
> last year.  Zenyatta is a great story, but if
> synthetic tracks disappear in a few years, like
> many predict they will, it will likely impact her
> going down as a great horse.  Call it an
> asterisk.
>
> How about that Mike Smith saving ground and
> splitting horses.  I haven\'t seen enough apologies
> to P-Dub on the board today....


Haha, thanks Jimbo. I will respectfully disagree with the Zenyatta is a synthetic horse debate. She won the Apple Blossom last year. To classify her as merely a synthetic horse is, in my opinion ridiculous. However, you are entitled to your opinion and I will respect that. This horse can run on anything, period. And of course, thats just my opinion. I think there is a saying about opinions.......

[alm]

Nearly all postings about Zenyatta on this site over the past year were wrong.  I repeat NEARLY all, but not all.  Some of you got it right.

I was all out on Gio Ponti in the race yesterday.  I didn\'t bet the horse, I bet the connections...very smart guys...I figured if they made the odd choice to run him in the Classic they made it with confidence and they were right.

Under the conditions yesterday, Gio Ponti was the best male horse in this country.  The conditions being a surface and a distance he figured to love.  Apart from a swerve in the stretch, Dominguez gave the horse a picture perfect ride and I was counting my money at the 16th pole.

Uh oh.  We got beat by the obvious Horse of the Year.  Had Rachel been in this race, she might have finished 3rd.  The only way she can beat Zenyatta is in a 2 horse match race and even then it is no sure thing.

[Dana666]

Yes, we can respectfully agree to disagree. Perhaps, the only fallacy in the above post (not P-Dub, the one before) is that although synthetic is closer to turf, it is not turf; it is something else, and, even less accurate, that horses who win on turf are somehow inferior to those who win on dirt because they run \"slower\" numbers, which in the larger context of evaluating the quality of thoroughbred racing is probably not true, since most of the races run in the world are in fact run on turf. So, defeating a horse like Gio Ponti, a multiple grade I winner on grass, isn\'t impressive or important in the overall context of quality? One other point I can\'t take about synthetic being like grass is that Zen never ran on grass, so how do we really know she\'s a grass horse? What if she were just as compromised by not liking synthetics as the other great dirt horses??? That thought never seems to enter the debate. How about the others she left in her wake? Rip Van Winkle ran 1 length behind Sea The Stars, supposedly one of the all time great European Champions, so that doesn\'t account for much either? And Twice Over who defeated Sariska who is an absolute monster, or Summer Bird who defeated Quality Road (I know Rachel beat Bird at Monmouth on a speed favoring track and a small field and a race in which Bird was forced to press the pace earlier than he probably would have liked and taken out of his best game of stalking) and on and on. And all the other dirt horses in the classic were compromised by the synthetic too? I suppose that is possible. But, as P-Dub says, Zen ran once on dirt, and I\'ll add, defeated the previous year\'s champion of her division that day, and did it like a morning workout. Anyway, the HOY voting will be another interesting diversion from the winter doldrums, I suppose. Maybe there really is no competition for HOY, but I can\'t see from any objective standpoint how that can be true. Hey, like everyone else, I know what I know and have an opinion. That and a couple bucks, like my dad used to say, will get you ride on a bus. That\'s all it\'s been getting me handicapping wise these days anyway. God Bless all and let the debate continue. I\'d like to just read though. I\'m so tired of hearing myself talk, others must be too.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

Not all synthetics are exactly like grass.  But Pro-Ride is.

Yes, technically, that is just my \"opinion\", but it isn\'t exactly a stretch is it.  Horses that ran on dirt prior to running on Pro-Ride in the last two years Breeders CUps are a combinded 0 for 42.  Not a HUGE sample, but significant.  

Gio Ponti, this country\'s best turf horse, finished 2nd, and Twice Over, another turf horse, came 3rd.  Last year, the ever consistent Curlin, didn\'t run his race on the carpet, while two turf horses from  Europe, with reasonable credentials, came 1-2 in the classic.  

Pro-Ride, plays like turf.  

Zenyatta won and it is great that her win has caused so much attention for the sport, and the fact that she gets so many people to emote, one way or another about her greatness, is also good.

[miff]

\"When Quality Road was scratched, all of sudden a race with a decent amount of pace turned into a race with much less pace; the fractions were roughly as follows- 24.16, 23.72, 24.00, 24.28, 24.46. Coming from where she came from on that track, which this year unlike last year, hadn\'t been very kind to deep closers, is almost unthinkable\"


Dana, What races were you watching. In a total of 9 \"dirt\" races there was one horse, Informed Decision ona very slow pace, that won on the front end.Stalkers/closers dominated for two days in the BC races.

Mike

[Dana666]

No way, go review the charts or tapes. No horse I can recall on Fri/Sat was more than 4 lengths back at the half mile pole and most were closer with the exception of Man of Iron and Life Is Sweet (suicide pace in that race) - what races were you watching???The winners had to stay mostly on the inside paths for the most part too. Wide closing moves were death except in the few races with suicide paces. Stalkers, yes,exactly my point, that indicates closing was very difficult, the speed horses are in deep water and the deep closers too - you hang around wait for the speed to fall down (maybe an inside run up) and fall into the lead - no horse made a run like Z in either day with the exception of Life is Sweet who had a suicide pace and a bunch of dead horses in front of her falling down, not Grade I turf champions who stay like in the Classic. Look what happened to Ventura - she had no shot with her patented wide run - why do you think the jocks tried to stay inside so much - look at most of Gomez\' rides, why didn\'t he take Gayego wide like last time, same amount of pace, yet he stays inside. What Zen did being so far behind those 24 second quarters is mind boggling. I not sure it will show up in the number for the race (maybe Rags because they supposedly adjust for internal pace, not T-g\'s of course) but believe me, her run was one for the ages, right up there with Secretariat\'s Belmont Stakes. You can watch races for the next 50 years, and you\'ll never see another horse like her. She\'s truly once in a lifetime. I can see where this discussion is going - you all need to convince yourselves somehow that you didn\'t see what you saw because the numbers won\'t add up.