Zenyatta Should Not Run In The Breeders Cup Classic

[Dana666]

I\'d have to see the field for the Ladies.  I wasn\'t saying she wouldn\'t or couldn\'t win that race. That\'s another discussion entirely. There may or may not be value in trying to beat her. Sometimes there\'s more value in multi-race exotics if you think she can\'t get beat.

Keep in mind one thing though.

Last year\'s Breeder\'s Cup had the second most European starters of all time (24) in the most races ever (14) with the most winners ever (5)*. You gotta think many more Euros will be coming this year, and their success will be even greater.They know American horses who do most of their running on synthetics are mostly inferior animals, not good enough (or suited) to race on grass and not good enough to face the really top level horses who run on dirt. Couple that with the tougher rules in California on drugs (both legal and illegal) and you have a solid Euro runner who has used no drugs and now gets Lasix against these crappy American runners, and you\'ve got a huge payday coming.

*source Thoroughbred Times (Sept. 19, page 15)

[richiebee]

Dana:

You seem to be missing one possibility-- that she runs in the Ladies, goes off at
3/5, and gets beat by one of your Euros.

I am not familiar with the Euro fillies/mares who might take a shot against Zenny
if she goes in the Friday race.

Frankel/Juddmonte\'s Proviso pretty much dominated a Grade 2 quality stakes field
Saturday at Keeneland, though Mushka, trained by \"20%\" Bill Mott (as in he is
only 20% the horseman that Rick Dutrow is)(query how many races did Benny the
Bull and Kip Deville won since the Tricky barn went steroid free?) might have
gotten a better fig off a wide journey. Proviso\'s effort was certainly good enough
to encourage Euro participation in the Friday race.

[Silver Charm]

Two hypotheticals for the sake of this debate.

1.) If Zenyatta runs her race and finishes 5th in the Classic what does this do to her stature or mystique. Nice mare who was only beating up on average fillys her whole career on her home tracks and couldn\'t handle real competition?

2.) Sherriffs said whether or not she runs in the Classic depends on how she is doing. So if she goes in the Ladies Classic am I supposed to assume she is not doing good?

[richiebee]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Two hypotheticals for the sake of this debate.
>
> 1.) If Zenyatta runs her race and finishes 5th in
> the Classic what does this do to her stature or
> mystique. Nice mare who was only beating up on
> average fillys her whole career on her home tracks
> and couldn\'t handle real competition?

An expansion of your hypothetical, for even further debate:

Lets say she finishes fifth, beaten less than a length, after drawing
an outside post in a 14 horse event, closing furiously after being wide
all the way around?

(Don\'t get upset P-Dub. The Smith Wide schtick is almost like TG urban
legend now).

[Silver Charm]

Hey Ritchie you brought it up I didn\'t.

But to your point at least the guys who took her at 3-1 can go home feeling better that they bet the best horse.........

[jma11473]

If she finishes 5th in the Classic, she gets a pass because it\'s males. The only thing they\'ll hear negative is that Rachel did it and Z didn\'t, but the connections are already hearing that and it doesn\'t seem to bother them. If she somehow wins the Classic she accomplishes something truly historic. If she loses the Distaff, then it\'s \"look what happened when she finally faced some real competition\". If she wins, then it\'s \"yeah, but it\'s her home track, she\'s great but no Rachel\". The Classic is the right move from both a sporting and a historical perspective.

[BB]

Here\'s a link to the Racing Post\'s survey of the British books:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/popup_pricebox.sd?pricebox_uid=2420285

It may be telling that there appear to be only two Euros planning on making the trip for the Distaff (assuming Rainbow View and Sky Lighter, both at 6-1, are Euros ... EDIT: Euro Rainbow View running this weekend at Woodbine). Tells me that the Euro horsemen think Z is running on friday and that she will be tough to beat, and I can\'t argue against either point with much conviction.

The two best fillies making the trip appear to be Dar Re Mi and Goldikova. The books have DRM favored over Forever Together in the F&M Turf and also at between 4 and 5-1 in the Turf. She was considered for the Arc but did not run so she comes into this rested. She won the Pretty Polly at the Curragh in June (an early  \"win and yer in\" race) and the connections said right then that they wanted to make the trip, so, presumably, they\'ve been pointing to this. A tough throwout in whichever race she runs, considering the state of the American 12F turfers.

Goldikova might be the best Euro to take a shot against, as she figures to go off at odds-on based on that flashy win last year (all the books have her odds-on). But she\'s had a very busy summer for a horse being pointed for the BC and lost at 7F (on good ground) at Longchamp the Saturday of Arc weekend. Bad time for her explosive kick to have gone missing.

[Flighted Iron]

Wrongly,

  I\'m not very good at predicting odds.Suppose She\'d be 3rd or 4th choice?
Looking forward to the sheets!!Btw,did you check out STS\'s sheet?

mjs

[Flighted Iron]

Dana,
 The more the merrier!!Hopefully fat pools with great underlays.Did you get the
chance to see STS\'s sheet yet?

mjs

[Easy Goer]

Dar Re Mi was 5th in the Arc...

[Lost Cause]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh, I hope John Sheriffs continues to show us his
> yellow streak and Zenyatta goes in the ladies
> classic.  What price could I get on Careless
> Jewel?


Don\'t forget Icon project and Music note who looks like a killer too..

[BB]

Damn! How did I miss that? OK, toss \'em both. Thanks!

[APny]

Are you guys kiddinng me?  I mean really.  As a racing fan I want to see the best horses run against eachother...period!  Why wouldn\'t you want to give Zenyatta the chance to prove how good she really is...what do you care if she loses?  It\'s not your money or reputation!!  They\'ve already dodged enough with this horse..bring it on!  This is a game where there\'s such a lack of real excitement when it comes to big matchups...and you\'d rather see Z beat Cocoa Beach again...please..  And yeah..of course she likely wouldn\'t win the classic..but it would create a good betting opportunity for us...and as gamblers..isn\'t that what we want?  And the distaff becomes a lot more open too.

[P-Dub]

You guys didn\'t think I would let this thread go without a long winded response, did you??

Richie - You are probably my favorite poster around here, no offense taken (Got a chuckle too). BTW, ask those that backed Indian Firewater last week how wide Smith took the winner of that race. The answer is...not very. Urban legend indeed...

Dana - You are the self proclaimed \"biggest Zen fan on this board\" (one of the biggest would have been more accurate, Smalltimer and myself have talked her up often around here and along with defending Smith have taken quite a bashing), yet you don\'t think she can compete with the males? You say that \"I don\'t think she\'d have any shot to rally the way she does against top males - it\'s difficult to close much if at all on that track\". Did you watch last year\'s race?? The winner was 9th at the 3/4 call, the place horse 8th, the show horse 11th, and Curlin (4th) was 7th.  I\'m trying to be kind here, but that statement is hard to believe. Gayego just won a sprint race rallying from 9th. I think its fair to say that horses can win up on or near the pace, but I would also say that horses can also close on that surface.

Quite a debate here regarding which race provides her a bigger \"safety net\". Hard to see what racing in the Ladies\' Classic would do for her. If she wins, big deal.  If she should happen to lose....the entire front page of this forum will be plastered with comments that she is a fraud.

If she should run in the Classic and win, she should receive strong consideration for HOY.  I just don\'t agree with the notion that Rachel has it locked up. When you talk about her accomplishments, many note that she \"has beaten males\", and also \"has beaten older males\".  She is also the first filly to win the Preakness Stakes, and won the Ky Oaks in record setting fashion.  She has also had a lot of things go her way too:

- Several races (Fairgrounds Oaks, Ky Oaks, Haskell) were run on off tracks, a surface she relishes. These surfaces also produce finishes where horses are strung out for a variety of reasons. Some just don\'t like it, some don\'t like the kickback, etc.. Nevertheless, she won and did so impressively.

- Beat a mediocre group of horses in the Preakness. Of the 12 horses she ran against, what have any of them done since?? Not much.

- Beat 3yo males in the slop over a speed favoring Monmouth surface.

- Beat \"older males\" consisting of Macho Again and Bullsbay. What would these 2 go off at if they ran in the Classic?

Asmussen and Jackson are to be commended for running her ambitiously, albeit under conditions and competition that were optimal.

My point is this....if Rachel is going to be given credit for being the first to win the Preakness, beating older males (and she should ABSOLUTELY be given that credit).....then why shouldn\'t Zenyatta - if she should win the Classic - be given just as much consideration if she also does something never done before...such as being the first female to win the Breeders\' Cup Classic??

You tell me what is more impressive - beating up second rate 3yos, beating second rate older horses, beating 3YO males over a speed favoring sloppy track - or beating horses coming in from all over the world, horses that many have said will wipe the floor with the best American horses??  If, and its a very big if, she should happen to win the Classic she will have defeated much more than Summer Bird (who will be in the race), Macho Again, and Bullsbay.

If she runs and doesn\'t win, its a slam dunk for RA. Duh. But this notion that she has HOY wrapped up is ridiculous.

Rachel is great, fantastic, historical, exciting, riveting, and many more superlatives. I am not saying she does not deserve the accolades. I get goosebumps watching her race, and I root for her every single time. It may sound like I am bashing her accomplishments, but I am just trying to keep her record in perspective compared to Zenyatta\'s if she should also accomplish something never been done before.

Alright, let me have it.

[RICH]

My question is what happens to the value when they get rid of the poly tracks in California? Why would anyone pay big$ for offsring of a poly specialist?