The Hopeful (Figure change?)

[jack72906]

Jerry/Alan,

The 5 horse, Aikenite, had his Beyer figure adjusted from 65 to 78. Is the 11 he ran first out still accurate?

Thanks.

[miff]

Jack,

Initially TG and Beyer agreed the figure, it was slow on both. Horses ruturning from that \"slow\" race were improving by 10-15 Beyer points which led Beyer/Hopkins to review their original fig of 65(changed to 78 or the eqivalent of a TG 8-ish).

It was a tricky day and maybe Jerry will also review the TG fig esp if Aikenite outruns his slowish TG 11.

Mike

[Cartman]

It\'s always tough to evaluate races for lightly raced young horses because they are eligible to improve so much so quickly. So how do you know if a figure that doesn\'t make sense reflects a change of track speed or improvement by a lot of horses?  

There is also a much wider variation in the figures relative to the average for the class than for other classes. For example, some MSW races are loaded with horses that are destined for low level claimers and others are loaded with future graded stakes winners. Even though there are strong and weak Grade 1, CLM 35K, etc... races for older horses the variation is not nearly as wide.

I think the greatest use of figures comes in races like these because the official classifications of the horses is the least efficient.  The other great use is for shippers because local players are often not familiar with the quality of horses at other tracks.

[miff]

\"The other great use is for shippers because local players are often not familiar with the quality of horses at other tracks\"


Cart,

Some years back that was money in the bank. For some reasons now,illegal stuff,poor testing or whatever,figures do not transport as well as in the past.Very tough now to figure which venues\'figs will or won\'t stand up when shipping into NY for example.


Mike

[TGJB]

I did end up making the race a little faster, didn\'t change it as much as Beyer did.

That day had one of the most unbelievable split variants you will ever see (about 10 points). If the guys across town really stuck to their guns and did the whole day at the same speed their customers are going to be in real trouble. My guess is they did not, they just won\'t admit it.

[Cartman]

Perhaps they don\'t transport as well, but they still transport better than race classifications that totally confuse the locals without a good set of figures.

I try to keep mental notes of all the horses that move up sharply or disappoint (based on figures) on the ship into NY in an attempt to find patterns. Sometimes it\'s a circuit issue. Sometimes it\'s a trainer issue.

[TGJB]

There are shippers and there are shippers. Graham Motion is not Scott Lake.