ROTW -- 9/5/9 -- Washington Park Handicap

[TGAB]

The race of the week will be the The Washington Park Handicap from Arlington on Saturday. It\'ll be up fairly soon.

[high roller]

dear thorograph,

on saturday the greatest filly in about 50 years will take on older males. could you please pick an obsure ROTW out of town rather than one the whole racing country will be watching?

many thanks

[covelj70]

High Roller,

Let me summarize for you what the ROTW commentary would look like for the Woodward:

\"With the weight break RA is getting, her worst this year on a fast track is equal to about the best that anyone in this field not named RA has ever run.  Sure, she could lose the rider at the gate but barring that, none of these have a shot against her.  You can\'t bet her at 1/2 and you can\'t bet against her so matter what the odds of the others\"

How\'s that?  

I say the same thing everytime someone posts about which race TG chooses as the ROTW, please stop complaining about free data!

Good luck tomorrow.

[jbelfior]

So what you are saying is that if CCM runs back to his negative 3 and RA steps back a bit, CCM has no shot?

What if RA regresses to a zero from her negative 4 (Haskell) the way she did at Pimlico? If that happens tomorrow, she\'s off the board.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MonmouthGuy]

covelj.  you may want to take a look at the analysis.

[covelj70]

I did look at the analysis and I think it\'s way off.

She\'s 6 negative adjusted for the weight.  Even if she regresses 3 points which I don\'t know how anyone can make a case for, then even if Cool Coal Man run his 3 negative, he has to save as much ground as she does in order to beat her.  That\'s a lot of \"ifs\" which I don\'t think are likely and even if all of those ifs happen, that just puts 1 horse roughly equal to her and all of the others 10 lengths behind her.

Look anything can happen and I am wrong alot but I think trying to make a case against her is just a case of people trying too hard to be differentiated.

[TGAB]

I agree she\'s the most likely winner and she is the fastest 3yo filly ever or at least within memory, however, at some point the aggregation of big efforts will take their toll. Maybe today\'s the day.

The Bid got beat in \'79.
Pleasant Colony lost to Coastal in \'81.

More recently

Point Given lost the Derby in \'01
Smarty Jones got stoned (bird) in \'04.

It happens. Even great horses get beat.

[shanahan]

It\'s a Bird / all / all

[Sandreadis]

This is 20-25 lenthgs off of a moderate mile pace. Not many clocks in the heads of the jocks, if the splits are corect.
How did your clocker on track have it?