Is Badge of Silver another Lils Lad

[Silver Charm]

The following was posted on this Board on the Date below by this author.


Author: Silver Charm
Date:   02-20-03 11:04


This horse is 11-1 in the future book. That might a decent price on him just making the race, much less winning.

Seems a little like Lils Lad to me. Only one short sprint win at two, giant win first out at three followed up by another big win first time two turns.

Lils Lad if you remember was \"shot\" by the time he reached Kentucky.


The significance of this post has less to do with being correct and more to do with a willingness to “put your ass on the line” before a race goes off. Something TGJB and TGAB do every week with their ROTW. On the flawed competitors Board a poster going by the following surname  DBF had this to say about the La Derby.


DBF wrote regarding Peace Rules,

“I\'ll probably have him on the win end with exactas and tri\'s with Kafwain and Funny Cide.”

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he bet the above combination but he did use the word probably didn’t he. Enough with semantics it has gotten others into trouble on this Board. Now that Robes has returned from a weekend in the closet maybe he can post his Laurel 2/22 numbers. I mean that’s a race that has already been run not an in advance selection for goodness sakes!!

Back to the La Derby I have this final on the ROTW analysis. Had TGJB and TGAB been able to view the appearance Peace Rules made on the track I’m sure they would have become of the opinion this is a totally different racehorse and he needs to bet even if the surface switch is to gravel!! I don’t know that for sure but when you post an analysis a day or two in advance there are factors that can change any handicapper’s opinion  They may have even changed DBF’s but he does get the benefit of the doubt for using the word probably.  Ask the fellas at DRF who do this type of thing every day. It aint easy!


One final note that I will add more to later but is it not fairly obvious that Frankel literally owns Baffert these days.

[TGJB]

If he LITERALLY owned him that would be some news story.
Let\'s give credit where credit is due-- nice job by DBF, and the winner looked a little better on Ragozin.
But it is worth pointing out that a certain well known jockey decided not to ride Peace Rules in the race because of how the horse looked on Ragozin, so let\'s not get carried away. They had the horse a little faster, but far from strong.
Yes, it looks like Badge of Silver ran too fast, too soon. The jury is still out on Kafwain, and which way he goes next time will tell a lot.
I threw out Badge of Silver, used Funny Cide and Kafwain together, and didn\'t cash because I threw out the winner.

[Silver Charm]

My two cents on Kafwain.

The negative two certainly cost him a little in the La Derby because he was under a whip ridden drive half way on the far turn.

Speaking of the far turn, Kafwain is always wide on that turn. Just look at the ROTW running line on the TG Sheet of Kafwain. This is not exactly the place to be in a 20 horse Ky Derby field because the ground loss can be significant. If he can\'t run as well inside of horses then its another problem to consider.

Kafwain doesn\'t seem to finish in the final 1/8th of a mile in his two turn races. He gets to leader but really can\'t go on by. Did somewhat the same thing yesterday when he probably lost ground in the final 1/16th, but again maybe it was repercussons from his previous taxing effort.

I\'ll continue to observe Kafwain, but now that the Baffert hype machine is beginning to promote Composure as one of his Derby contenders, one has to wonder whether he has that much left from the hundreds of two year olds he started with last year. I was the first one on this Board to bring up Domestic Disputes line, but he did only beat Our Bobby V and Scrimshaw in the Santa Catalina that day. We will see more on Saturday and Sunday.

One final note on Composure, maybe Baffert feels he has nothing left to prove against Storm Flag Flying. I mean after all he did guarantee last December Composure would beat SFF the next time they face-off .

[tread]

You guys are leaving out a pretty important part of the analysis, track bias.  The homestretch favored the rail almost to the point of absurdity yesterday, and most of last week.  If you notice Funny Cides stretch run, he falls way back and then is suddenly miraculously making up ground by the end of the race.  This was not an isolated incident, 7500 claimers have been doing the same thing all week, horses look compeletely done, and then suddenly come back on the inside.  It\'s quite apparent that being wide on the track there is not advantagous, not just on the turns.  

All things considered, I think Kafwains performance was outstanding and on a track that plays fairer, both for speed and position bias, he will run much better.  I think they\'d better avoid Keeneland and perhaps try out the SA Derby instead.

[HP]

I can only hope Kafwain makes it into the Derby and takes big money. I\'d take a futures \"bet against\" if they offered it. HP

[Silver Charm]

HP,

Your spitting into the wind. Don\'t you realize that Kafwain is about the only dual qualifier left.

Just kidding, I agree with you.

I went back and looked at the race again because of what Tread had to say about the  rail and Funny Cide. I can\'t speak for the  rail because I don\'t see enough FG races on a daily basis to be a judge. Funny Cide either benefited from the rail or once he got the horses (PR and BOS) off himself he relaxed and started running again.

As far as Kafwain goes once he entered the picture on the far turn Espinosa hit him 5 times with the whip right handed, when he turned for home he hit him 15 times left handed then inside the 1/8 pole he hit him 11 times more right handed.

Jockey\'s in Europe don\'t serve days for this type of animal abuse, they serve time.

I see where Baffert is blaming Espinosa for the loss. Clearly, when Led Zeppelin wrote the song \"Nobody\'s fault but mine\" they didn\'t have Baffert in mind.

[Silver Charm]

This is from the Daily Racing form today.

\"Badge of Silver had his final Blue Grass tuneup Wednesday, working a mile in a swift 1:38 at Churchill. Regular rider Robby Albarado was aboard for trainer Ronny Werner.\"

You really have to wonder about some of these guys, Werner and Baffert. This is a horse that has been sick, lost weight had a throat surgery. Does the trainer really need to work him this fast to find out if he is \"doing good\".

A mile in 1:38 is almost like another race! Just what this horse needs with the compressed schedule he has been on-yah right. Maybe he wins the Blue Grass but it won\'t be with my money on him.

[fasteddie]

They don\'t tell you if the work was a one-turn or two-turn deal; a 38 work,
while fast, is not out of line for a
horse with some quality. He may be a very interesting play come derby day, but I think
he is a Lil\'s Lad clone.

[Silver Charm]

The track is a one mile oval. Almost no one works from the starting point of the one mile races. The works from the gate are usually at about the 6 furlong starting point.

This would have been a two turn work, how fast he was going at the beginning of the work would also be a factor in the final time.

The horse is fast, that is not the question. The question is can he race fast and work fast at the same while be sick, losing weight, and having surgery in a span of 90-120 days and still be ready to run his best. (Remember he missed about a week of training after the surgery).

[bdhsheets]

Seeing that Lukas, Baffy, Werner were former quarter horse trainers (I believe Lukas still dabbles in it) have they continued those training methods to thoroughbreds, push them hard till they break? I recall reading Werner employs some odd techniquess that led to all 10 of Ramsey\'s 2yos winding up back on the farm with some form of injury.