Giant Pick Six at Del Mar Today! Any thoughts?

[Dana666]

Does anyone have any thoughts on today\'s huge carryover at Del Mar? Upon first glance, the card seems workable. I will probably post later, but I\'d love to hear some strategies from you guys! I have a small bankroll today, so I will need some singles! I wouldn\'t even mind a small payoff for a small investment; usually I only go for the six figure pick sixes, but I\'d settle for four figures the way things have been going!  Honestly, I can\'t remember the last time I won a pick six - maybe today will be a change! The track seems to be playing fair to my surprise. The turf course is a little chewed up as the meet is winding down. Other than that I need to dig into these races. Good luck if you do play!

[Dana666]

Race Three: This race is hard to get a grip on – one rough bunch of cheap claimers.
4-Thunderfromdownunder: Showed speed versus older foes; if he gets the lead here, he'll be tough as nails to run down; this bunch isn't too big on passing anyone.
3-Tap Tap I Win: Showed some reasonable late run against a runaway foe; I suppose you can make a case for this one to rally into it.
1-Letspickupthepace: Hinting at a return to some semblance of form; may be best to include in wider pick six tickets.
2-Seismometer: Can't get too excited about this one's chances; I suppose the drop has to help.

Race Four:
Yet another cheap claiming event! At least they're older fillies.
4-Recess: Seemed to relax more for O'Neill and was able to bravely hold off her foe in last; it was a slow event though a win is a win.
5-Twodollarstowin: usually in the mix at this level; needs a trip though.
2-Our Storm: Closed into a slow pace in last, not much better scenario here?
3-Mean Heat: these Unusual Heats always shine in races like this where you have no clue.
8-Saint's Crown: Speed wouldn't be bad against this lackluster bunch – perhaps she can clear off and get brave.
6-Enlightened Lady: was really shut out in her last, seemed to be running when the trouble began.
10-Wondrous Event: has put in a run in her last two but lost all energy late; hard to have much hope, but this is her third race over the track.

Race Five:
6-Warren's Jitterbug: Good-looking, long-striding Cal Bred facing open company. My next move with her would have been 7 furlongs, but Warren has had a few good grass horses in is day, so hopefully he knows what he's doing here. I always liked her. Ears pricked in last on the gallop out wanting to do much more! (Purse incentives of an extra 16K for Cal-Breds in here!)
5-Forbidden Paradise: Hard to get a line on the horses she faced in GB, but she showed enough to merit a shot with these. Galloped out well in her only race at 5 furlongs.  Only the second horse in the race to have run on grass already!
7-Home Grown Lass: Maidens going over a mile first out isn't my favorite angle, but she is so very well bred; according to the Stallion Register software, five Grade I grass winners bred on the Danehill/MrProspector cross.
3-Imeratriz: Seems like a play against for me, not bred for route or grass. AC/Omar have been hot lately though I never seem to be able to catch them.

Race Six
A tough race here!
6-Free Flying Soul: Speed and Smith, always a good combo. One of two live Headley runners in here – she couldn't handle stakes runners in last, but fits much better here. Very tough if she clears easily!
5-Bonifacio: Impressive so far; overcame big trouble in debut and then shortened up to win in grass sprint! This is a step up for her though.
4-Supermodel: The other (?) Headley ran well enough in her last over the track; will be closing. She's a bit lazy and needs to be kept awake by Solis; he usually obliges.
3-Irish Gypsy: Hard to fault her last win, waited a bit and finished strongly when clear for Baffert.
1-Lemon Supreme: has some talent and switches barns to Hofmans after being fractious before the start in last. She's shown she can compete with these.
8-Schill: Seems to have tailed off lately. She does win a lot and is 2/2 over Del Mar's polytrack, so perhaps she'll wake up. I'm not quite sure. Perhaps her many hard races have caught up to her now.
2-Petite Cherie: Seeking the proper level, and I'm not sure this is it. She moves well enough over the polytrack though.
7-Expensive Art: Cassidy must be scratching his head with this filly; back to polytrack where she had some success in England. Not sure she's fast enough to hang with these girls, however.

Race Seven:
2-Over Andover: [Best Bet]Classy-looking filly seems to have a bright future; it's always tough facing winners for the first time, but her maiden win was very impressive, wide both turns and won in hand drawing away late.
1-Minute Limit: Logical contender here after just missing versus stakes-placed Starlarks; that was a strange race though as it was very slow- paced; Starlarks is a dead closer who found herself on the lead, and Minute Limit ran well late right up the rail to just miss.
4-Coatcheck Girl: Comes off a blowout win versus a very weak field, she got a perfect trip, too – she did finish very well though. She'll have to prove it to me she can handle the step up from starter allowance.
5-Dextrea: Ran pretty well in her last, but the distance seems a little questionable here; same story with 3-Spring Tale.
6-Love Apple: Appears to be the speed in here; nothing in what I've seen, however, inspires confidence she'll get the route of ground.

Race Eight
7-Lady Alex (Single): Looks like the one here; she ran into a tiger in her last and really tried hard. She seems well spotted here to graduate for Sadler/Rosario. She's already had two races over the track!
11-Makit Till Midnite: Was finishing very well in her debut versus a few of these foes; seems to be working well since, too. Any forward move makes her a big threat.
1-Brillant response: Adds blinks, but I'd be careful with this one; I don't think she's all that. She has speed and does figure to be right there most of the race for Gaines and Gomez however.
8-No Due Diligence: Ran well enough as a two year old to merit respect as she drops for her return. Seems live for team Reddam.
1A-With respect: Sweetens entry a bit as she was running decently late in her debut, may improve.
A few first timers, 4-Abandoned Gold and 9-Italian Spirit, seem to be working well, but how many can I use?

If you want to help, help me in the 3rd and 4th races; I feel good about the other races!!!

[Sandreadis]

Dana, Great P6 analysis. You obviously have a very good feel for SCAL racing.
Hopefully you went 4 deep in leg 1 and are celebrating a nice score.

[Dana666]

Wish I could tell you \"yes\" to yesterday\'s pick six; my bankroll was just too small! I singled Drysdale\'s horse in the 7th as I had to cut the ticket down. I did hit the high five with my last $20 in the 8th race (I almost never play high fives, either) - small consolation. I hope somebody benefited though. It paid fairly well considering there was no horse that was so hard to come up with. I\'m just not good with 10K claimers, so I had to go deep in the first two legs and that killed me.

[imallin]

I had 5 out of six and also singled the Drysdale in the 5th leg. I also went deep by deep in the first two legs. I had one small ticket that found the 2nd leg winner on a 2 deep ticket, but i missed the Headley in the 4th leg on that ticket.

[Dana666]

After all the bad beats I\'ve had, whenever a trainer has two in a race, I always use both - you have to, no matter what. (About 10 years ago I missed a 450K pick six at Hollywood park - I used one Darryl Vienna horse and he had two in the race -they ran one two and bumped each other, there was a long inquiry - after that day, I wouldn\'t ever leave one out if a trainer sends two). Anyway, I thought the #6 (in Race 6) was the horse to beat, too. Smith didn\'t really send him. Espinoza was grabbing the 5 and Smith still didn\'t attempt to clear off on a day when speed was super - go figure! Oh, well, next time! Sometimes you pick the better horse, but still get beat. I\'d say Over Andover is a better horse than the #1, but the other guy had more experience and a quicker turn of foot. Over Andover probably wants added distance, too, he looked a little one-paced, maybe he was tired off his maiden win - the other guy was fresh and blew by. Don\'t quit b/c you can win with a small ticket. I once won 70K with a 60.00 investment at Hollywood park. Only the second day they opened with the synthetic track. I thought, \"this synthetic track is great, man!\" That was the highlight so far. . .a freaky day when I think about it. I had a 20K pick 4 several times as well that day. How can you lose a thousand days in a row and have a win like that? Weird stuff.