Some picks for Wednesday

[covelj70]

I am going to be at Del Mar tomorrow and had a cross country plane flight to cap both the Spa and Del Mar for Wednesday so I figured I might share some thoughts and get some feedback since I like some horses that are a bit of a price on the ML.

First at the Spa.  I started with the 5th race because I usually put a decent chunk of the day\'s bankroll into the pick 6 and since there is a carryover, well, why not.

5th race.  Pletchers horse is 8-1 on the ML and suddenly his horses are running again up there.  If you put a line through the off the turf effort at Monmouth, this guy has a nice looking pattern and is as fast as anyone in the race.  I will also use the 1 and the 4 in the pick six

6th race. I really like the Motion horse coming over from Europe, Bum Bum.  He\'s as fast as all but one of the others (the Brown horse who I think might be cheap and could bounce a bit).  He also gets lasix and a hot rider.  He\'s 6-1 on the ML which I think is a very good price.  There\'s a very long run into the turn so I am not worried about ground loss from the 10 hole and he has shown some tactical speed in Europe which seems to be lacking in this race.  Will use Clement and Sheppard on backup tickets.

7th race. The 4 horse is pretty fast coming in and should win this.  If he doesn\'t it\'s anyone\'s guess but I will backup with the entry from Pletcher and Mott who looks like the Mott of 2 years ago at the spa now that he\'s done dealing with Zayat and all of the nonsense that goes along with that crew.

8th race. I like the 6 horse, Quonata, alot and she\'s 6-1 on the ML.  I was at the spa for the filly\'s last race and she bolted from the gate and ran around closer to the grandstand than the rail.  Came back with a very fast work and is the fastest coming in by far.  If we excuse the last b.c of the bad break, this one should get home at a decent price.

9th race. Beautician is fastest coming in and her paired figures suggest that the original big effort didn\'t take it out of her (like it did for the Lukas horse in this race who keeps going backwards, including a bad start last time...who was it who said on this board that big efforts sometimes cause bad breaks next out...another example in Decelerator).  The two Asmussen fillies are also very fast and need to be used on backup tickets but I have found in these two year old races over the years that the fastest horse usually wins and Beautician is the fastest horse.

10th race.  Wide open affair and I am forced to go 4 deep here because I don\'t have a very strong opinion. I won\'t use one of the favorites, Mr. Hooker, because I think this race is too short for him and there\'s no pace for him to close into (and he\'s slower).  I will use the 1, 4 and 7 and then take a stab on the 5, Regal Refrain, with Leparoux up because none of these are very good and the 2nd timer could jump up and beat this bad group.

Thoughts for me for tomorrow at the spa on any I am missing that others feel strongly about?

[drbillym]

Sounds like life is good, covel.  Beautician had colic Sunday night and will be scratched.  In the 5th I think on this firm turf course, More to the Story simply wires the field.  In the 6th, Redreamit ran respectfully with an excuse against Maraschino Red, a horse from the Tagg barn which you will hear lots more about down the road.  So at 15-1 M/l I would use her.
Best of luck.

[covelj70]

thank you so much for all of those thoughts.  really appreciate...and yes, I am very lucky.

[jack72906]

Thanks for your thoughts Cove! Here\'s how I see it:

5th race: Tough race. There\'s a lot of early pace in the race. It\'s tough to throw out the 4, but I like the 5 to improve second over the grass and the 9 is a definite use. 4-5-9.

6th Race: It\'s always been tough for me to play an Int\'l shipper in their first start in the US. I\'ll be using the late running 3 and 5, but I really like the looks of the 9(ML 12-1). She closes well and the figures over the Tapeta surface (slight edge to closers) are competitive. She also gets a good turf rider. 3-5-9.

7th Race: Singling the 4. Of the first time runners I like the 7 and 8.

8th Race: BIG scratch of your key Quonata. It opens up for the 2 to be out front all alone. Tough to throw the 3 (ITM 11/15) because she should get first run and the 9 may be rolling back into the form 3 and 4 back. 2-3-9.

9th Race: The Asmussen horses. The 1 probably wires the field from the inside post. 1.

10th: Wide open mdn. I\'ll use the early pace of the 7 with the 2 and the 5 to improve second out on the grass/blinkers/LeParoux. 2-5-7.

I love this game! Good luck everyone!

[P-Dub]

jack72906 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for your thoughts Cove! Here\'s how I see
> it:
>
> 5th race: Tough race. There\'s a lot of early pace
> in the race. It\'s tough to throw out the 4, but I
> like the 5 to improve second over the grass and
> the 9 is a definite use. 4-5-9.
>
> 6th Race: It\'s always been tough for me to play an
> Int\'l shipper in their first start in the US. I\'ll
> be using the late running 3 and 5, but I really
> like the looks of the 9(ML 12-1). She closes well
> and the figures over the Tapeta surface (slight
> edge to closers) are competitive. She also gets a
> good turf rider. 3-5-9.
>
> 7th Race: Singling the 4. Of the first time
> runners I like the 7 and 8.
>
> 8th Race: BIG scratch of your key Quonata. It
> opens up for the 2 to be out front all alone.
> Tough to throw the 3 (ITM 11/15) because she
> should get first run and the 9 may be rolling back
> into the form 3 and 4 back. 2-3-9.
>
> 9th Race: The Asmussen horses. The 1 probably
> wires the field from the inside post. 1.
>
> 10th: Wide open mdn. I\'ll use the early pace of
> the 7 with the 2 and the 5 to improve second out
> on the grass/blinkers/LeParoux. 2-5-7.
>
> I love this game! Good luck everyone!

Nice analysis, several nice prices amongst your picks.