Repost: The Two Sides Of The House I Can See Are White

[TGJB]

Some of you may recall the discussions on this site about track speed changing from day to day, race to race, and from one part of the track to another. Well, a few weeks ago David Grening wrote an article in DRF where he discussed percentages of moisture content in the NYRA tracks, which seemed like something I should know more about, so I gave David a call. He suggested I give NYRA track superintendent Jerry Porcelli a call, which I did, and he really knows what he is doing. I just got off the phone with him, and my head is spinning.

About 5 years ago, it turns out, Mr. Porcelli decided it would be interesting to see whether if by quantifying moisture content he could establish correlation with track designations (fast, good, etc). He determines moisture content by taking a piece of the track, weighing it, baking it, and seeing how much the weight changes. Some of Mr. Porcelli\'s comments:

1- A \"fast\" track in NY can have anywhere from 3 to 12 (!!!) per cent water in it.

2- \"Good\" is generally from slightly above 12 to just under 14%, \"Muddy\" from 14 to about 16, \"Sloppy\" from 17 on up.

3- Moisture content is not constant from day to day, even without intervening weather \"events\"-- there was rain over the weekend, and they didn\'t race yesterday (Monday), but he measured the moisture at 17%, today at 15, and he expects to start tomorrow at about 13.

4- Despite the addition of water, he figures he will lose about 1% over the course of the card tomorrow to end up at about 12%. The amount changes depending on wind, temperature, and cloud cover-- less an issue this time of year than in July, which he used as an example of when moisture content would be more variable.

5- Different parts of the track are wetter than others-- he used Belmont as an example, saying the backstretch is always much wetter than the homestretch. He thinks possible causes are shade from the trees that line the backstretch, and wind currents around the grandstand.

6- Here\'s one I didn\'t think of-- speed of the tractor spreading the water is variable, while the water flows at a steady pace. Mr. Porcelli says the tractors move slowly when they start out, then pick up speed, causing more water to be dumped at some places than others. Also, some parts of the track aren\'t watered by the tractors, but by smaller water trucks. This is much more of an issue at smaller tracks with smaller chutes, which additionally may receive other differences in maintenance.

7- All of the above is variable to the differences in soil composition at the different NYRA tracks, as well as those elsewhere. One track may get faster with moisture, others may get slower.

The upshot is this-- despite best efforts by competent humans to keep moisture content constant, there are so many uncontrollable variables that it can\'t be done. Which means that so-called \"objective\" figures, which make ASSUMPTIONS about track speed not changing and races run over different parts of the track being run over the same surface, are really just averaging apples and oranges.