Churchill Downs - Northern Dancer S.

[sekrah]

Lots of potential in this one as the odds-on #3 WARRIOR\'S REWARD (6/5 ML) cannot possibly be used as a key with his price and after breaking his top by 3 1/4.  I would be shocked if he paired that up, even with 43 days rest.. I think a retreat to 3-4 is quite likely here.  Still very competitive to hit the board, but by no means a clear cut favorite here.

There\'s a couple nice patterns here who could explode for a win, #2 SUCCESSFUL DAN (7/2 ML) looks like he could be a very nice horse and is a definent use.  His first two-turn race though, could be a good excuse for him to toss a clunk here, but he has to be used.

One could also make a strong case for #1 OMNISCIENT (9/2 ML) Looks like a good spot for nice new top here, with rest coming back off the poor poly effort.  Good chance to break through that 6 and get a nice 1w1w to contend.

#7 PARADE CLOWN (8-1 ML) is full of value.  Getting his 2nd start on dirt, this one looks like its in a good spot to get back to its poly 2.  In a race void any real early speed, there\'s a possibility he could get loose with some easy fractions.


There is a deep bomber in here that piqued my interest when I was looking at this race last night.    #6 BROAD STONE (20-1 ML).  This horse could climb to 30 or 40-1 before they get into the gates.  The trainer change from Lukas to John Fahey, is a very positive move IMO.  Fahey has rolled in some bombers with some of his first races after change. I think this one is could be sitting on a MONSTER.  I fully expect a new top here and I would not be shocked if this one ran a 3 or 4.  If a couple other pieces fall in place, he\'s going to be near the wire IMO.    Another Birdstone colt here, we\'ve been seeing his 3 yo\'s popping big ones all over the place.   He also has IMO the best jockey in the game today, Jeremy Rose.  Rose comes to Churchill once or twice a year and he gets this mount in addition to Bullsbay in the Foster.

Going to go for a bonecrusher here and key both #7 PARADE CLOWN and #6 BROAD STONE in my first tier with #1 OMNISCIENT, #2 SUCCESSFUL DAN, #3 WARRIOR\'s REWARD in my 2nd.

Lots of 6,7/1,2,3,6,7 and 1,2,3,6,7/6,7 combos in the exotics.

[smalltimer]

I\'ll be playing the 1356/13567/13567/ALL in the super.

[sekrah]

Don\'t like the 2 horse at all small??

[big18741]

5 and 7 both scratched.

[smalltimer]

Thanks, takes most of the value out of the race for me.
I\'ll split the 1 and 3 and still use the 6-7.

[smalltimer]

Actually, I was trying to attach some value to the race, with the 1 and 3 fairly chalky I had to let the 2 just beat me.  With the 5-7 scratching, changes the race setup anyhow.
Good luck

[smalltimer]

I meant with the 7 out, I\'ll just move the 8 into those spots with the 136.